Tony Calvin ended Friday with an 8/1 winner in the shape of Trueshan and our resident tipster is sticking with his antepost pair against the field for the Cesarewitch on Saturday...
"Eddystone Rock is in the form of his life as a 7yo now that connections have finally cottoned on that he is a stayer. Good and soft ground comes alike to him, so the weather can do what it wants. I really like his chance."
I thought I was nicking a decent price with Time To Study at 16/1 on Monday afternoon, but he has drifted out to 25/1+ in the marketplace, a move that has been mirrored, and maybe had its instigation, on the Exchange.
And the recommendation to also take 25s about Eddystone Rock certainly didn't unearth any value there either, as those odds, and more, remain on offer about him for the Cesarewitch at 16:10.
I haven't cooled on either horse as much as the market has though - nothing much has changed since I made that Monday case for them - and they have to remain my day-of-race selections for the 2m2f handicap.
I am going in again, win-only, on Time To Study and Eddystone Rock at [29.0] and [40.0] or bigger, respectively.
Testing conditions mean Time To Study is back to lay potential
One of the "problems" of showing your hand early when it comes to weekend races is that you have pretty much already written your copy when it comes to re-assessing the contest on a Friday, providing you haven't changed your mind, that is.
And the issue with Time To Study is that the lingering doubt about his stamina remains, especially with the forecast from Friday afternoon onwards at Newmarket promising rain, and then more rain. It could be pretty gruelling come the off.
He has in the past shaped as if 2m is the furthest he wants to go - including in this race two years ago - but his third behind The Grand Visir and Buildmeupbuttercup (favourite here and clearly a massive runner) in the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f in the summer certainly went a fair way to dispelling the fear that he can't see out this 2m2f trip.
He came with what looked like a winning run up the straight there - he traded at [1.43] in the run when taking it up at the 2f pole, though his goose was cooked a furlong later admittedly - and he comes into this race as an in-form and well-handicapped horse, still some 11lb shy of his peak 2018 rating and with Cieren Fallon taking off another 3lb.
He only picks up a 4lb penalty for his defeat of the subsequent winner Alright Sunshine over 1m6f in the soft at Haydock last time - he went up 7lb for that, so he is officially 3lb well-in here - and he clearly handles testing conditions very well.
But I am concerned about him lasting home in deteriorating ground, so he looks an ideal candidate for a back-to-lay play for exchange backers. So maybe consider a keep bet for your stake at around the 3/1 mark. I'll probably go up at around that level.
Eddystone Rock is in form of his life
If stamina is the question mark for Time To Study, then the same is also true of Eddystone Rock.
But, crucially, he is unproven and unexposed at the 2m2f trip and everything about the manner of his recent brace of 2m wins at Ascot and York (he was out-of-form when twice tried over the trip on the all-weather earlier in the year) suggest he really could relish the extra 2f.
He really did go into overdrive from a very unpromising position to get up close home at York last time (he hit 32.0 in running) and, although going up 4lb for that win, he is still 3lb lower than his peak rating.
And I suspect he is in the form of his life as a 7yo now that connections have finally cottoned on that he is a stayer. Good and soft ground comes alike to him, so the weather can do what it wants. I really like his chance.
I am not doubting for one moment that you can make a convincing case for at least a dozen in here - so there is no point listing them all - but those are my pair against the field, for all that they lack the sexy profile of others.
Can Pinatutubo handle the ground?
The prospect of deep ground gives Pintatubo's rivals a glimmer of hope in the Dewhurst at 15:30 if only because he is unproven on anything worse than good.
Some horses obviously don't handle the dip at Newmarket as well, though that may well be clutching at straws too considering he has won at Epsom and Goodwood.
Basically, if Pinatubo runs to the level he showed at the Curragh last time, then Wichita will have to be Ballydoyle's best-ever 2yo to beat him - the form book is backed up by the clock when it comes to assessing the favourite - and little wonder Wichita is two points bigger on the win-only exchange market than in the fixed-odds marketplace, where the each-way angle is in play.
I suspect I will be in the majority in letting this race go by without having a bet, for all Aidan O'Brien has thrown four at the Group 1 prize and we could get a softening-up, tag-team scenario here against the jolly.
Modest stakes shot for the nursery
I know connections would be very worried about the ground for Shoot To Kill in the nursery at 13:45 if it turned very testing, but he certainly interests me at a double-figure price.
A close fourth at Doncaster first time up, he then ran in that Mum's Tipple Ascot maiden that worked out so well before going to Chelmsford last time and finishing second.
He got picked up late there after making the running but he shaped well in what could be a fair novice, certainly in the light of his opening handicap mark of 77.
The winner was a good third in a big-field nursery here last time and is now rated 87, while the third won by 4 lengths at Southwell on Thursday.
The step up to 7f shouldn't be an issue, given the dam won over 1m, and I just think he looks a well handicapped horse.
Back him at [15.0] or bigger, but only to modest stakes given the forecast and ground concerns.
Subjectivist is bet of the day at current odds
I can happily give the Autumn Stakes a swerve given so many in the race are unknown quantities, but I cannot let Subjectivist go unbacked and untipped at [22.0] win and [4.5] place, or bigger, in the Zetland Stakes at 14:20.
He actually rates the bet of the day at those odds.
I know this race is full of unexposed sorts who threaten to improve a good deal for the step up to 1m2f but, strictly on official ratings, they all have to progress to reach the level the selection sets and he was the 25/1 outsider of the field in three places on Friday morning, including with the Betfair Sportsbook.
He is the most experienced horse in the field, he has a good, heavy-ground debut to his name (which could prove crucial if the course gets a lot more rain, as could that race-toughness), and he is arguably the form pick on his 1m Salisbury second to the unbeaten Mohican Heights two starts ago. And his fourth at Haydock last time was not too bad, either.
He is closely related to the stable's St Leger runner-up Sir Ron Priestley and the yard has won this race five times down the years. He has a lot more going for him than his price suggests.
Hey Jonesy on a winnable mark at York
There are also three York races on ITV, but the only one interests me from a betting point of is the 6f sprint at 15:50.
I couldn't put you off Aplomb at all, as the 3yo still looks on a fair mark, for all he was raised 4lb for his narrow, soft-ground second at Ascot last time.
The winner is a very progressive sort and they pulled well clear of the third, and you may want to keep him onside at around the 7/1 mark.
But at twice the price, I am going to recommend a small, win-only bet on Hey Jonesy at [15.0] or bigger to give his trainer a third straight win in this race.
He failed to land a fair old punt in the Ayr Gold Cup last time and ran pretty disappointingly, all told. I don't know what the reason for that modest showing was - and these sprinters hardly need an excuse to chuck in a poor one - but it could be the first-time visor didn't go down well.
But that is taken off here, and the handicapper has chipped in with a 2lb shave too, so Hey Jonesy is now on a very winnable mark if he returns to his form earlier in the season, and even more so on his Group-race showings last term, which saw him rated 110, as opposed to his mark of 101 now.
His career-best came on soft ground last season when second to Donjuan Triumphant at Doncaster last November and this course winner has never run a bad race here in four starts. I can't see a massive amount of pace in here, so he could well take them from the front in stall 20.
Shoot To Kill at [15.0] or bigger in 13:45 at Newmarket
Subjectivist at [22.0] win and [4.5] place, or bigger, in 14:20 at Newmarket
Hey Jonesy at [15.0] or bigger in 15:50 at York
Time To Study at [29.0] or bigger in 16:10 at Newmarket
Eddystone Rock at [40.0] or bigger in 16:10 at Newmarket
Time To Study at 16/1 each way, five places
Eddystone Rock at 25/1 each way, five places