Tony Calvin Tips

Rhys Williams Tips

Horse Racing Tips

Daily Racing Multiple

Today's Racing News

Racing Results & Replays

Saturday Racing Tips: Sleep Easy can enliven dry January at Kempton

Tony Calvin
11 January 2019

Can Sleep Easy (above) reward backers on Saturday?

Join

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Tony Calvin returns to make the case for his bets at Kempton and Warwick on Saturday afternoon, including a strong traveller available at big odds...

"The one real positive aspect about Sleep Easy's chance is that he is a real strong traveller, so I think a truly-run, big field handicap will suit him, as will the ground at Kempton."

We'd all like to be a couple of hundred million quid behind him, but one of the few drawbacks of being Tony Bloom is that you are unlikely to get preferential treatment from the handicapper these days.

Exhibit number one could well be his Sleep Easy, who has not been dropped an ounce by the assessor despite being beaten by an aggregate of 41 lengths on his last three starts, including when trailing home 28 lengths behind Champ at Newbury last time.

Sleep Easy

Of course, Bloom hasn't had too poor a run of it in Flat handicaps of late, with the likes of Withhold and Stratum landing nice handicap prizes in 2018 - not to mention winning a Stayers' Hurdle last year with Penhill- so we shouldn't be shedding that many tears for him.

And, especially, as I still have a sneaking suspicion that Sleep Easy is worth a nibble at 30.029/1 or bigger in the Lanzarote at 14:40.

It is disappointing that Mr Antolini doesn't take his chance - maybe they are holding him back for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury next month, where he may get softer conditions (if it ever rains again) - but that was always the possibility on ground that could well be on the quick side on Saturday afternoon.

Indeed, they put 5mm of water down on the chase course on Thursday, which surely must have been unheard of in the past, anywhere, in January.

Anyway, back to Sleep Easy, where we will get the negatives out of the way first.

The most obvious is the fact that he doesn't have any secrets from the handicapper on recent evidence, as outlined above, and another concern that I have is the form of the Neil Mulholland stable.

Remember, Bloom doesn't train them.

Mulholland looked to have turned a corner when Carole's Destrier won at Newbury at the end of December - a card on which his Walt was only just denied in a photo, too - but he hasn't had a winner on the Flat since August and he was win-less in January going into Friday's racing, though to be fair he hasn't had many fancied runners, so maybe I am overplaying that factor.

Given that Sleep Easy is apparently not the biggest, I bet connections were also thinking about claiming off him here (indeed, Wayne Hutchinson was the last one jocked up in the race, long after 10am on Thursday).

If that hasn't put you off, here are the positives.

The one real positive aspect about Sleep Easy's chance is that he is a real strong traveller, so I think a truly-run, big field handicap will suit him, as will the ground.

He smoothly went through the early part of the race at Newbury last time, and shaped better than the beaten distance there (the handicapper obviously agreed), and before that he bumped into the progressive Vive Le Roi (who is now rated 22lb higher) when second at Stratford.

Looking back through his form, you can easily argue that Sleep Easy's best hurdling form came when sixth over course and distance here two years ago, off a 5lb higher mark in a strong handicap run in a really good time.

All in all, he is worth chancing at the price and you may even want to consider sticking in an in-running lay on him, as he will catch the eye, going well, if on song here. He is not always the strongest of finishers.

Lord Napier is a smart saver

There are a batch of more obvious, progressive improvers, headed by the likes of Kloud Gate and Darling Maltaix, but they have predictably not been missed in the market, and I am looking at Lord Napier as my saver in the race at 7.613/2 or bigger. The shortening price on Friday afternoon was annoying, but I can just about live with around 13/2.

He looked ready for a step back up in trip when staying on up the straight to finish sixth over 1m7f152yd at Ascot last time - "crying out" for it, as racing people are prone to say - and he is two from two over 2m4f, the furthest he has travelled until now.

His best form to date has come on soft ground but he hasn't run badly at Haydock (in a Swinton) and Wincanton on good ground, and both of those starts came over 2m, so I am not unduly concerned by the underfoot conditions.

This greater test of stamina is the key to him progressing and taking this decent pot, though.

Thoughts on the rest of the card at Kempton

The class action of the day takes place in the 32Red Casino Chase at 14:05, even though the ground has claimed Waiting Patiently at the overnight stage.

That's a big disappointment but Charbel and Top Notch are both 162-rated horses, and the 6lb penalties that they carry bring the other three into the mix.

Maybe, the market is underestimating Hammersly Lake on this ground, but it's not a race that gets the betting blood pumping.

It was a little harsh to see Josses Hill raised 3lb for his fourth in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time but it isn't hard to see him going close in the 3m handicap chase at 15:15. He is best when dominating in small fields, and he could just do that here.

The problem is he is getting on at 11 now and he is has never shown any form over this 3m trip, though he loves the course. Another potential negative is that the out-of-form Minella Daddy may harry him for the lead.

It's a very tricky race to call though, not helped by there being just the seven runners to rule out the each-way betting angle, and I suppose Glen Rocco is solid enough after his second to a well-handicapped horse in Glen Forsa at Kempton last time.

But, then again, he has gone up 3lb for it and you have to fear Barney Dwan (in first-time cheekpieces, a fair third at Bangor last time and who will love the ground) and Ballykan if they put their best feet forward.

A few drinks were had after Eddiemaurice did us a good favour when winning over course and distance over Christmas - a shedload, in fact - and he could well take a lot of stopping off just a 6lb higher mark in the last race on Racing TV, as he really did sluice up, in spite of hitting the front too soon.

But I will stick to my terrestrial brief here, as I do think Magic Dancer could give him a race off his falling mark.

Over at Warwick...

Warwick 956.jpg

I was initially very keen to side with Cogry in the 3m5f handicap chase at 15:00, but there are four or five others in there who like to go forward as well, and that could compromise his chances.

If he can get his own way out in front, then I think he has a favourite's chance, mind you. He finished second to runaway winner Milansbar in this race last year and comes here in excellent form, having got the better of a three-way battle up the Cheltenham run-in over 3m2f last time.

Some may say that the placed horses may not be the heartiest in a finish, but they pulled 15 lengths clear of the fourth, and a 3lb rise looks very fair. He will love the good ground, too.

However, these staying handicaps are notoriously tricky to call and it is interesting that the cheekpieces that Step Back wore for the first time when destroying the bet365 Gold Cup field last season are back on here, having been discarded for his Chepstow return in October.

The more I looked at this race though, the more I came back to Cogry, so I am going to recommend him at 8.88/1 or bigger.

I would prefer him to go out in front and stay there (an easy time of it like his stablemate Turning Gold got at Leicester on Thursday will be lovely, thanks), but he doesn't need to lead - as he showed when second at Cheltenham in October (and when winning that same race in 2017) - and conditions look ideal for Scottish National runner-up.

Duel At Dawn was possibly the one I feared most against him, but it is obviously a very competitive race.

Everything may not be ideal for my major Albert Bartlett Cheltenham Festival fancy Rockpoint in the 2m5f Grade Novices' Hurdle at 14:25, as he carries a 5lb penalty against good horses (you have to fear impressive course-and-distance winner Birchdale, for starters) and I am not sold that 2m5f around Warwick on good ground will play to his strengths.

His marked recent improvement has come when stepping up to 3m in a strong Newbury handicap (he should have won but I won't bore you with that story again) and in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham last time, as befits a half-brother to Santini, so I am not entirely confident on his winning chances here, however much I think he is a bet at 16/1 for the Festival for the three-miler.

I won't get involved with him here - again, only seven runners, so no each-way angle - but hopefully a win or a solid run in defeat under his penalty will keep the Cheltenham dream alive.

The Warwick action on ITV4 kicks off with the 3m Listed novices' chase at 13:50, and it is clearly a cracking little heat with four 143+-rated chasers rocking up.

But there is nothing more than a jumping mistake between them, especially with form horse Rocky's Treasure carrying a 5lb penalty, and it doesn't interest me from a financial perspective at all.

A final bet of the day...

The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier at 15:35 is a touch more competitive, even though that was reduced from 22 entries to 10 runners at the overnight stage.

Blaklion is presumably on Grand National mark protection duty and Keeper Hill is possibly the most obvious one in here after his good second at Cheltenham last time, for which he was raised 3lb.

Mind you, his stablemate Ritual Of Senses, returning after a lengthy absence due to a leg injury, would have been interesting were he not 6lb out of the handicap (though he has a good 7lb claimer on board).

The one that interests me most is Oh Land Abloom - and not because it tops and tails this piece neatly on the "bloom" front - returning to hurdles after officially refusing over fences at Market Rasen on Boxing Day and with a visor fitted for the first time, and a tongue-tie back on.

The stable have had a couple of recent winners and he has a good form chance on his second to today's rival Nowhatiam at Uttoxeter in November.

You are taking a fair chance after his run last time, but if you go back and look at the video then he is basically pulled up before the second-last rather than refusing.

He just looked more exhausted than reluctant at Market Rasen - the extended 3m3f on unsuitably soft ground was the furthest he has been - and 3m1f on good ground will suit him a lot better.

Back him at 21.020/1 or bigger.

Have a good weekend, and good luck.

Tony's P&L

April 14 2017 to Jan 11 2019 inclusive: +112.72pts

(all Exchange bets are settled at BSP)

Boost your odds on three horses every day on the Betfair Sportsbook. T&Cs apply.

Recommended bets

Sleep Easy at 30.029/1 or bigger in 14:40 at Kempton
Lord Napier at 7.613/2 or bigger in 14:40 at Kempton
Cogry at 8.88/1 or bigger in 15:00 at Warwick
Oh Land Abloom at 21.020/1 or bigger in 15:35 at Warwick