The Irish Oaks meeting at the Curragh adds another layer to Super Saturday and Tony Keenan has been through card to find his best bets...
"Have A Nice Day won a strong race on his first start for John Feane in May, the likes of Mr Right, Geological and Snoozing Indian showing the form in a good light since, and hasn’t had suitable conditions the last thrice."
Enable is a filly that can potentially mix it with the best over 12 furlongs so this afternoon's Irish Oaks should provide no real test; her official rating of 120 leaves her well clear of the next best, Rain Goddess on 110. Connections of a short-priced raider would typically be concerned with Ballydoyle choreographing the race to suit their team but with only two Aidan O'Brien-trained runners in the field that seems unlikely. If there is one that can outrun her odds it could be Bengala who has not been seen to best effect the last twice but there are better betting opportunities on the card.
Both Severus and Plough Boy are obvious in this seven-furlong handicap, unlucky to run into the well-treated Silverkode last time, but I would rate Have A Nice Day as having the same chance as that pair at a bigger price. He won a strong race on his first start for John Feane in May, the likes of Mr Right, Geological and Snoozing Indian showing the form in a good light since, and hasn't had suitable conditions the last thrice.
Firstly the ground was too slow at Gowran then he ran over trips further and shorter than ideal but there was plenty to like about his run over six furlongs last time, doing well to get within two lengths having had to be switched for a run. He gets his optimum conditions of seven furlongs and decent ground now and the race being at the Curragh where he is a three-time winner is a further plus.
If there is a seriously well handicapped horse in the Scurry, it is probably Celebration. The form of his Navan win in May is working out, the second and third higher in the weights now, and an 8lb rise since then seems lenient. It is his run in the Rockingham that really stands out however as he did very well to finish sixth despite racing away from the pace on the stands' side, finishing with a flashy closing sectional and looking the best horse in the race along with Hit The Bid who goes for a Group 2 later on the card. The extended six furlongs raises a slight stamina doubt but his potential is hard to resist.
A more solid option is Snap Shots whose last two runs at Ripon and Haydock are decent, the penultimate effort good on the clock, and the record of UK-trained runners in these Irish sprint handicaps is well-known by now. The draw isn't quite the factor it has been at the Curragh with the stalls tending to be put in the centre of the track lately but box 17 is hardly a negative especially with only himself and Tithonus likely to go forward from that part of the field.
There is a wide range of riding experience on offer here and I worry about taking a short price on Misses Lyons and Smith-Chaston having the necessary track-craft to win on fancied runners Sandstorming and Zeftan. Lisa O'Neill is probably the best rider of the eight and she has already won on Miles To Memphis who has claims to be nicely in off 82. The eight-year-old is a shoddy jumper so it isn't the greatest surprise that he is three from three on the flat including bumpers. He was fortunate to win last time when the leader ran out a furlong down but that Leopardstown maiden has worked out and he should be on the premises if coping with this drop in trip.
Air Supremacy was a little unlucky at Bellewstown last Friday but I wouldn't overdo it and in any case he would only just have beaten the 77-rated Zanjabeel so the form is nothing to get excited about. Sing Like The Sea achieved more than that when fifth at Navan on debut - the first four in that race now rated 84, 98, 97 and 104 - and he was better than the result too, tight for room briefly before finishing well. His subsequent run at Leopardstown was disappointing but the ground was particularly fast that afternoon, more firm than the official good-firm, and he is worth chancing at the prices to bounce back.
1 Point Back Have A Nice Day @ [7.0] or bigger in the Curragh 15:45
1 Point Back Have A Nice Day to Place @ [2.3] or bigger in the Curragh 15:45
1 Point Back Celebration @ [7.0] or bigger in the Curragh 16:20
1 Point Back Snap Shots @ [12.0] or bigger in the Curragh 16:20
1 Point Back Miles To Memphis @ [8.2] or bigger in the Curragh 18:30
1 Point Back Miles To Memphis to Place @ [2.5] or bigger in the Curragh 18:30
1 Point Back Sing Like The Sea @ [5.8] or bigger in the Curragh 19:00
2017 P+L: -0.1 points