Alan had a winner and a loser yesterday to start the week so we will call that a draw. Today he has three selections from Ayr, Haydock and Redcar...
"I don't think the Keatley team would be bringing her back over if she didn't have a decent chance of going in again."
19:10 Ayr - Michael's Missile @ 3.8514/5 Exchange
Adrian Keatley is a man to watch when he has runners at Ayr, over the last twelve months has sent 12 horses to Scottish course, producing five winners and three places a 41.67% strike rate. Today he has sent four charges over from Ireland but its Michael's Missile that I like best out of the quartet.
The chestnut filly broke her maiden tag here last month when winning a similar event to this, she then returned to Ireland and although finishing ninth of 20 runners at Naas last time, she raced handy until they hit the stiff uphill finish and dropped away, finishing six lengths behind the winner.
She has already proved she has no problem with the flatter Ayr track and while she has gone up 8lb's since that first win, I don't think the Keatley team would be bringing her back over if she didn't have a decent chance of going in again.
Ed Vaughan tries the consistent all weather performer Si Senor back on the turf at Haydock in the opener. The gelding has ran 10 times but nine of those starts have been on the all weather, winning three. His only effort to date on turf was here in September last year where he ran fourth of 13 beaten only a length and a half.
He has only run once since that outing and returns today after a 65 day absence, but this horse has won twice before after being off the track 151 days and 91 days so is capable of running well off a break. I think if he can bring his all weather form with him, he'll certainly be in the shake up and at 5/1 I am prepared to give him that chance.
Obsidian has been performing well in better class handicaps than this off the same mark as he is off today, in his last three starts he has been beaten by less than two lengths. The main worry about Obsidian is that he doesn't have any good form on ground as fast as this but that's not to say he can't perform on it.
I get the feeling that better things were destined for this horse, he is a full brother to the 110 rated listed winner Fencing but he suffered a setback last year which required surgery. So maybe this drop in class today and over what should be his ideal trip of a mile, could be just what he needs to allow him to get his head in front again.
Alan Thompson 2015 P&L (EW bets are .5 pts unless otherwise specified)
Carried Forward +7.6 pts
This Week :-
Staked: 5 pts (Including today's bets)
Returned: 2 Pts
Overall Profit: + 4.6 pts