Timeform UK SmartPlays: Saturday 21 September

Horses at the finish
There is Flat racing from Newbury on Saturday

Timeform pick out their best back, lay, and smart stat bets on Saturday...

"A useful performer when trained by Freddy Head in France, he got back to that sort of form when winning on just his third start for this yard at Haydock..."

Timeform on Young Fire

Back
Forest of Dean - 15:30 Newbury

Forest of Dean improved further to record a fourth win of the year at York last month, hitting the front entering the final two furlongs and always in control thereafter, winning by a length and a half with plenty seemingly in hand. The way he took out that competitive handicap marked him out as very much a horse going places, and, still potentially well treated under a 5 lb penalty here, there is no reason why she shouldn't take all the beating once again for the high-flying John Gosden yard (15 winners from last 29 runners at the time of writing), with a step up to listed/minor pattern company likely to be on the agenda sooner rather than later.

Lay
Sermon - 13:50 Catterick

Sermon has proved expensive to follow in his relatively short career to date, going off favourite three times since his debut and filling the runner-up spot on all three occasions. This is much easier than the valuable sales event in which he was seventh at York last time, but he is hardly one for maximum confidence given his overall profile, now in cheekpieces for the second start in succession, and there are enough dangers to make Sermon an attractive proposition for a lay here, with Dick Datchery and Romantic Vision perhaps chief amongst them.

Smart Stat
Young Fire - 16:55 Ayr

3 - David O'Meara's number of winners in past 4 runnings

David O'Meara has dominated this race in recent years and will be hoping to add to his tally with one of his two runners in this year's renewal, the pick of which looks to be Young Fire. A useful performer when trained by Freddy Head in France, he got back to that sort of form when winning on just his third start for this yard at Haydock two weeks ago, the drop back in trip presumably doing the trick, his response when it came to the crunch particularly encouraging given previous efforts. That form gives him the edge on weight-adjusted ratings here, even with a 3 lb higher mark taken into account, and he is very much one to keep onside now back in the groove.

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