Welcome to week four of the Racing League, where we are at Windsor on the turf, and our man Daryl Carter is back in the tipping hot seat.
"I am not in the business of putting up short-priced runners, so we may need a little luck, but we are due it."
Windsor, a course where grabbing the rail over the sprint trips can be beneficial. Being a prominent racer on the figure of eight-course (1m+) is no bad thing either, highlighted by all winners on this course on Monday having made the running or positioned in the first three.
The prices seem to have contracted this week, with many of those at the head of the market's the obvious choices.
I am not in the business of putting up short-priced runners, so we may need a little luck, but we are due it.
A power-packed finish can see Boundless sprout wings late
The opening race, 17:25 William Hill Play Responsibly Racing League R19 was one I almost walked away from until I saw the pace map with no less than five runners that like to make the running or force the gallop.
The next port of call was to find the best-handicapped horse in the race, and that could well be Fernando Rah, who the market has well found.
Top weight Boundless Power is the one that has been missed, though, and also the one that will benefit from the robust pace on offer with his usual waited tactics.
Let's get the negatives out the way, this is the fastest ground he has encountered to date, so there is a danger of him being outpaced early on. He could also find traffic should jockey Cam Hardy do the unthinkable and drop right in behind on the rail (pray he stays wide).
Since being gelded, he has been on a steep upward curve, culminating in a career-best effort at Ascot in the highly competitive Heritage Handicap when beaten just two lengths by Significantly (good ground). That is the strongest piece of form on offer.
He can be forgiven his run at Goodwood over six furlongs last time when repeatedly denied a clear passage, and although his two wins have both come at Nottingham, they have also been the two of the three times he has had a strong pace to aim at (other at Ascot).
He is one pound lower than Ascot and two pounds higher than his win at Nottingham and has to be worth another chance off this handicap mark.
Night Romance can land the four-timer
The 17:55 William Hill Double Your Odds Racing League R20 looks a far weaker race on paper than the one Night Of Romance scored in at Doncaster on week two, and there looks to be no reason as to why he can't rack up the four-timer in this company.
Team Ireland has been quietly confident for this week at Windsor, and in aid of getting some points on the board, they have turned out the progressive Night Of Romance, who has plenty of mileage in this mark yet.
His last two victories have produced three next time out winners, including Newcastle scorer Strike Red. That one is now 12lbs higher in the handicap, so this six-pound mark should be well within reach for the progressive three-year-old who looks on an upward curve.
A Doncaster thing or a good thing?
Air to Air looks potentially like a good thing off the same mark in the 18:25 William Hill Free Or Four Racing League R21 as his eye-catching run at Doncaster last week when denied a clear run on multiple occasions.
However, he was impressive at the same track two starts prior, and it could be a Doncaster thing, or maybe I am kidding myself because I don't want to be undone by last weeks tip Double Dealing.
My nature is to steer away from what even those with a white stick can see, and at the prices, I won't lose sleep in leaving him alone.
Strong pace will suit the well-handicapped Via Serendipity
Interesting heat this the 18:55 William Hill Pick Your Places Racing League R22, and while the market leader Paxos is well-treated thanks to the claim of the in from Saffie Osbourne, his stamina has to be questioned and given he takes up plenty of this market, it looks a good place for a bet.
Via Serendipity is not one for maximum faith off the back of an 82-day break, but the trainer did have a good crop to choose from, and the removal of the tongue-tie and the visor for the first time since scoring in 2016 is an interesting move by Charlie Fellowes.
There is no doubt he is a better horse on the all-weather, with the ratings confirming that fact, but he is now only three pounds higher than when scoring this time last year on his first start for this yard at Ascot in a Class 2 0-100.
He is more than capable on turf, as he has shown on his last two starts.
He missed the break at Doncaster over an inadequate six furlongs but stayed on strongly and was much better than the bare result at Chester from stall nine last time over seven in a Class 2 0-105.
This represents a drop in grade, and there is plenty of pace on here for a late charge, so in a wide-open handicap, he is worth chancing.
In search for Moore value
Confidence in Gahris for team Ireland has been echoed in the market, and he could cap off a good day for the team in the 19:25 William Hill Lengthen Your Odds Racing League R23.
Still, I am keen to search for better value, given that one steps straight out of Maiden company into a competitive handicap for the first time.
That could come with Gary Moore's Champagne Piaff, who shaped with a good deal of promise at Goodwood in a competitive handicap on seasonal return.
Denied a clear run at a crucial stage in the race, he picked up well in the closing stages on ground that would not have played to his strengths, so there was plenty of positives to take out of the performance.
Back on a sounder surface today, now race fit, and over a slightly shorter trip, there's good reason to expect a step forward.
His debut run behind La Barrosa (108), Derab (113) and Greatgadian (93) when only beaten five lengths looks a strong piece of form. As does his win at Salisbury on his second start when taking care of Fundamental (104), Percys Pride (82) and The Attorney (92).
That suggests this mark of 83 should be well within reach, and the Goodwood run boosted confidence that he will leave this mark behind him in due course.
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DARYL'S RACING LEAGUE PROFIT AND LOSS