It's the Newmarket Guineas Festival that takes all the attention this weekend, and Alan has two selections from the card, one of which is in the first classic of the season...
"He should have come on plenty for that last run and is back on his favoured ground"
Kevin Prendergast can claim his second 2,000 Guineas
When Saxon Warrior won the 2,000 Guineas last year, he was one of only two unbeaten colts in the race, but this year's renewal sees plenty of unblemished records vying for Classic glory. The loss of John Gosden's superstar Too Darn Hot removes one of the unbeaten colts a d his withdrawal has left Aidan O'Brien with the first two favourites in the market.
Initially, it was Magna Grecia that the market had as favourite but after being drawn 17 and Ryan Moore opting to ride the unbeaten Ten Sovereigns, the market has flipped. Obviously, connections believe that the trip won't be a problem for Ten Sovereigns, but his stamina is as yet unproven and after reading Steve Miller's excellent dosage index piece in the Racing Post Weekender, he suggests there is not enough pedigree data, and his closing comments were "Surprising if at least one or two don't see it out better".
I think the first classic of the season could well go back to Ireland but the one I like to take it over there is Kevin Prendergast's charge Madhmoon, he was the winner of successive mile contests at Leopardstown last year, the more recent of those coming in Group 2 company where he beat the highly regarded Broome. He was then off the track for seven months, but returned to run half a length second to Never No More in a 2,000 Guineas Trial back at Leopardstown last time. Leading when entering the final furlong that day he just got caught close home but should have come on plenty for that and is back on his favoured ground. At 8/1 he is my selection.
The only race Young Rascal lost as a three-year-old was the Derby
William Haggas is a trainer in form and I want to give Young Rascal another chance after being sent off a 2.6213/8 favourite but just finishing fifth in his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last time out. He finished behind Defoe that day but I think he will come on more for that freshener. He has still only had seven lifetime starts and has won four of them. Massively progressive during his three-year-old career, Young Rascal started the year with a Timeform rating of 83p and finished it on 125p, and he wouldn't have to improve a great deal more to become a top level performer over this mile-and-a-half trip.
No doubt that connections would have been expecting more from him at Newbury last time out, but he will strip fitter for that and I think the colt will put his best foot forward, if he does then that will be too good for last years winner Defoe or John Gosden's Coronet to live with.
2019 Overall: +10.3pts
This week so far...
Staked: 2 pts
Returned: 0 pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts