Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday 30 September

Horse clear of the field
There is Flat racing from Bath on Monday

Timeform pick out their best back, lay, and smart stat bets on Monday...

"...the standard-setter on weight-adjusted ratings who could yet have more to offer after only five starts..."

Timeform on Colonel Whitehead

Back
Bay Watch - 17:10 Bath

A winner over C&D in July, Bay Watch followed up on his next two starts at Salisbury and Lingfield, before shaping as if still in good form when sixth in pursuit of the four-timer back here last time, beaten only two and three quarter lengths at the line after not getting the best of runs through. He certainly showed enough to suggest that he remains on a fair mark - fully 17 lb higher than when beginning his winning sequence - and, back down significantly in grade today, it would be no surprise to see him get back on the up and rediscover the winning touch, especially if getting a strong pace to aim at (usually held up).

Lay
Isobar Wind - 17:50 Wolverhampton

Isobar Wind sets the standard here on the form of his six-length win at Ripon in July, but it's fair to say that he's yet to really scale the same heights in four subsequent starts, notably finishing well down the field when stepped up to this trip at Leicester last time. His speed seems to be his primary asset, which raises serious doubts about his suitability for this sort of test, and even the drop in grade here fails to inspire much confidence, given how disappointing he has been of late. Overall, there are enough reasons to suggest taking him on at the current prices, with preference for Moontide, who is well up to winning a race of this nature on the evidence of his recent form in France.

Smart Stat
Colonel Whitehead - 14:00 Bath

£30.73 - Heather Main's profit to a £1 level stake when having one runner at a flat meeting

Heather Main has an excellent record when sending only one runner to a meeting, and she is likely to have high hopes here for Colonel Whitehead as he attempts to follow up his recent success at Chelmsford. Admittedly, there wasn't much depth to the minor event he won that day, but he was well on top at the finish, also shaping as if the slightly longer trip today would suit, and a BHA mark of 71 appeals as being fair on handicap debut, the standard-setter on weight-adjusted ratings who could yet have more to offer after only five starts.

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