Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday 28 October

Horses finish
There is all-weather racing from Kempton on Monday

Timeform pick out their best back, lay and smart stat bets on Monday...

"...he looks the one to beat from the same mark in this lesser class of handicap..."

Timeform on Bryn Du

Back
Bryn Du - 17:30 Kempton

This doesn't look as competitive as the numbers suggest and this handicap shouldn't take much winning. The horse that stands out is Bryn Du, who remains a maiden, but showed his best form in a first-time tongue strap when finishing third at Newcastle last time. That was just his second start in a handicap, and the form is working out well with the runner-up winning next time. There should be more to come from him, too, and he looks the one to beat from the same mark in this lesser class of handicap.

Lay
Aquileo - 18:00 Kempton

Aquileo looks the one to beat of those with previous experience, having shaped well when a big price on debut at Newmarket earlier this month, the pick on looks in the paddock beforehand but very much in need of the experience during the race. He is entitled to improve plenty now, and is likely to be a much shorter price than he was on that occasion, but there are some likely-looking newcomers here and he could be worth taking on with that in mind.

Smart Stat
Ya Hayati - 18:30 Kempton

33% - Charlie Appleby's strike rate at KEMPTON PARK since the start of the 2015 season

This looks a nice-looking minor event with several likely-looking newcomers on paper, but it may pay to side with experience, and Ya Hayati rates the type to take a significant step forward from his debut run. Out of a two-time Grade 1 winner, he is bred to be smart, and was well found in the market when only sixth over this C&D earlier this month. However, his lack of know-how was evident on that occasion, pushed along entering the straight and running green, unable to quicken but not persevered with once his chance had gone. That experience won't be lost on him and he can overcome a wide draw here for leading connections.

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