It's the penultimate day of the Ebor Meeting and Tony Calvin has found a trio of value bets for your consideration...
"Three starts over this 1m trip have yielded a win and two seconds - he has made the running on each occasion - and good ground (or ground with a bit of ease in it) suits him perfectly well."
I was all set to tip Prince Of Arran at 33/1+ in Saturday's Ebor but trainer Charlie Fellowes has had a late change of plan, and I think the decision to go for the Lonsdale Cup at 14:25 could prove to be an inspired move.
I hope so anyway as I am backing him each way at 22/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook, and I may throw a few quid at him win-only on the exchange at 29.028/1 or bigger, too.
The first thing to say about this race is that it looks very winnable. The favourite Thomas Hobson is rated only 110 - the selection is just 3lb shy of him on official ratings - and the class horse of the race, Dartmouth, carries a 3lb penalty and is trying this 2m trip for the first time.
Prince Of Arran was admittedly a bit disappointing in the Goodwood Cup last time but he was a 33/1 chance in a Group 1 race there, so I don't want to be too negative about his run, and it could be that the track and helter-skelter nature of that contest didn't suit him.
His two earlier runs at Ascot were certainly very encouraging. He has been a much-improved horse since his summer gelding last year, and he posted his best effort yet when chasing home Sweet Selection in the Sagaro Stakes in May.
Well, I say best effort yet, but I would be inclined to mark up his Gold Cup eighth just as much. Go and take a look at the video of his Royal Ascot run, and you will see a horse travelling powerfully into the race, only to falter when the stamina gauge runs on empty from 2f out.
I think this 2m trip will prove to be his optimum, and the re-fitting of cheekpieces for the first time since 2015 - both of his starts in them have yielded two runner-up spots - is an interesting angle with a view to him travelling with more zest than at Goodwood.
You Red it here first - Erik a bet in the opener
Erik The Red is worth a small-stakes bet at 11.010/1 or bigger in the 13:55. He is also 10/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook at the time of writing.
He has run two of his better efforts at this track. He probably should have won when third here at the start of last season and he occupied the same position in the 1m2f handicap at this meeting last year.
In common with a lot of his stablemates, he took a while to find his stride this season but he came good in second-time cheekpieces over 1m2f at Doncaster recently and I think a 6lb rise in the weights may not stop him following up.
That Doncaster form looks pretty strong, as he beat a progressive and in-form horse there, with a further 4½ lengths back to the third, and the fifth has come out and won since. The step up to 1m4f won't be an issue as he finished an excellent second in the November Handicap last year.
Jallota, Marsha and Capital Flight the eye-catchers on the card
The 7f Group 3 at 15:00 looks nigh on impossible. I was going to chuck a few quid at Jallota on account of his course form figures of 31143 - the most recent third was actually in this race last season - but you can make a case for over half of the field and I can't put anything up. Odds of around 20/1 are fair enough, though.
Again, I was tempted to put up Marsha each-way against the big two in the Nunthrope at 15:35 - I don't think she has that much to find on her Palace House win - but realistically I think we are playing for just the one place and odds of around 8/1 and 9/1 are probably about right.
Of the market leaders, I just edge towards Battaash at the prices, but this is a race I am happy to watch without a financial interest.
Capital Flight was a massive eye-catcher at Goodwood and will have plenty of supporters in the Convivial at 16:15 as a result, but for my final bet of the day I am looking at the lucky last.
Throw some cash at Wahash in the closer
I wouldn't put anyone off throwing some cash at La Rav but the one that caught my eye is Wahash at 26.025/1 or bigger in the 16:50.
He has been held up over 6f and 7f on his last two starts - the handicapper has played fair in dropping him 2lb for his Chester run last time, as I always think they tend to ignore runs there - but all his best form has come when forcing tactics have been adopted. So hopefully he will be sent forward here, though competition for the lead from the likes of Montataire is present.
Furthermore, his three starts over this 1m trip have yielded a win and two seconds - he has made the running on each occasion - and good ground (or ground with a bit of ease in it) suits him perfectly well.
He has been given a near two-month break since that Chester run and he is now only 4lb higher than when a good second at Epsom in June.
Back Erik The Red at 11.010/1 or bigger in 13:55 at York
Back Prince Of Arran each way at 22/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook in 14:25 at York
Back Wahash at 26.025/1 or bigger in the 16:50 at York