Wednesday ITV Racing Tips: Danzeno the bet on day one of the Dante meeting
York's excellent Dante meeting commences on Wednesday and our big-price tipster Tony Calvin has just one recommendation for you as well as talking about all the ITV races...
"He has run some excellent races over course and distance, most obviously when third in the Group 2 Duke Of York on this card in 2016, and Frankie Dettori gets back on board for the first time since the horse was highly tried in the Group 1 sprint at Ascot on Champions' day in October."
When Act Of Valour came down two out when in with a winning chance at Haydock on Saturday, my immediate reaction was to swear quite a bit and bemoan my luck, which hasn't been too good on the punting front for the past three weeks or so.
Well, bad luck and judgement, if truth be told.
But I was soon snapped out of my sulk when appreciating the horrible extent of the fall. Thankfully, Bryony Frost walked out away unscathed, but the horse sadly didn't.
Something to bear in mind when you are in the middle of a bad run and doing your money, as I undoubtedly am.
I can't buy a winner at the moment - Gabrial's King just failing to get up at Chester on Friday was particularly brutal - but I am not going to tip a shortie to try and arrest the slide, so let's have a look at the opening day of the Dante meeting, shall we.
Tricky opener in which Children and Grandee have chances
Grandee was my other Friday selection in the Chester Cup last week, but he was never in danger of troubling the judge, trailing home 14th and beaten 38 lengths.
The obvious conclusion to draw was that he didn't stay, so the drop back to 1m4f will suit, but he is 3lb higher in the weights here - he was 3lb well-in at Chester - and obviously he has a very quick turnaround to contend with.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he won this, though, as I thought he shaped really well at Ripon the time before and is still fairly weighted on his Irish exploits, which includes form on quick ground, but this is a tricky little handicap at 14:20 to decipher.
There are some very interesting horses in opposition, most obviously the favourite Hamada, but Now Children was well regarded when trained by Ian Jardine and he shrugged off a lengthy absence when scoring on his stable debut for Clive Cox over an extended 1m1f in February.
He is half-brother to a 2m winner, which gives you encouragement he will see out this longer trip - as did the fact that he took a while to get on top at Wolverhampton - and Cox went into Tuesday's racing with eight winners and a strike rate of 33% in May.
He was a very fair 7/1 chance with the Betfair Sportsbook early doors, but the absence since February troubles me a bit. Mind you, they may just have been patient with this £50k pot in mind.
Trust Frankie to get Danzeno home in front
The Sportsbook were ducking Danzeno in the 6f handicap at 14:55 offering 7/1 on Tuesday morning when 12s was available elsewhere, and I think they were right to.
Back him at [13.0] or bigger.
He returned to form when fourth to three higher-rated rivals in a conditions race at Chelmsford last time, and he is weighted to go well if reproducing that form here.
I am worried whether he is drawn out of it in stall 18 of 19, but he has plenty of pace around him, with Ower Fly (17), Flying Pursuit (15) and Dark Defender (13) all speedsters who like to go forward.
He has run some excellent races over course and distance, most obviously when third in the Group 2 Duke Of York on this card in 2016, and Frankie Dettori gets back on board for the first time since the horse was highly tried in the Group 1 sprint at Ascot on Champions' day in October. The ground won't be an issue for him.
Orion's Bow is the obvious favourite after a good comeback run over 5f at Pontefract, and the step up to 6f on better ground will suit.
He went up 1lb for that run, but is still very nicely handicapped on his 2016 best - he is 13lb lower than when second in the Stewards' Cup that year - but the problem is that his price has been in free fall (well, perhaps not free fall, but he has shortened a fair bit from 8/1) since the betting went up and current odds of around 5/1 have to be reluctantly passed over now.
Odds-on Harry could be in for a scrap
The aforementioned Duke of York at 15:00 sees the return of Harry Angel.
He is the odds-on favourite here and he absolutely destroyed his main market rival Tasleet in heavy ground at Haydock last season, and we know fast ground holds no fears for him courtesy of his July Cup win from Limato.
The stable are in great form and of course he is much the likeliest winner, but he does have a 5lb penalty to carry first time up and Tasleet was incredibly impressive when taking this race last season, as well as having a below-par Harry Angel behind him when second at Ascot on his final start last term.
It could be a lot closer than the betting suggests, and let's not forget that Brando was a Group 1 winner last season as well, but it's not my kind of race.
The same applies to the Musidora at 16:05 which involves even more guesswork than usual.
Lubinka is probably underestimated in the market a little at around 7/1 given that she finished a good sixth in the Fillies' Mile last season and did it well on her Lingfield return, but this contest is not for me.
There are a couple of decent handicaps on RUK when ITV goes off air, but nothing particularly caught my eye.