Rarely have I studied a big-field handicap and seen a horse with so much going for him as Gabrial's King in the Chester Cup at 15:10 and I have no hesitation in putting him up as a punt at the odds available.
Back him at 9.417/2 in the win and 2.89/5 in the place. I will be much the poorer if he isn't in the first four.
He was available with one firm at 20-1 on Sunday afternoon, and at 12-1 yesterday morning, at which point I tweeted - and I did DM and tell those who asked for the name of the horse in question - "Just had a good look at Chester Cup. With a decent draw, I think they'll be a 5-1 favourite on the day and it isn't Quick Jack."
I meant Gabrial's King, and he has been berthed in stall three - in-truth, as a hold-up horse, the draw wasn't vital to him but it was welcome all the same- so I stick by my assessment of him as a 5-1 poke, especially if there is no significant rain.
Basically, the only possible negatives at this stage are things that we can't control - the weather and luck in-running - so I won't worry about them.
He wouldn't want too much rain - and there is 8mm due according to some reports but far less on others - but I have given up on the specialist forecasters employed by tracks. Newmarket last Saturday night/Sunday morning, when they predicted up to 10mm, was yet another example of the professionals being well wide of the mark.
So, while keeping a firm eye on the weather - and he does have form on good to soft anyway - let's concentrate on the positives. And there are a hatful.
Firstly, there is the proven ability to act on the track. His form figures here are 23422292 - the ninth place came in this race last year when he was a 33-1 chance and came into the contest in poor form and showers during racing didn't help - so there are no issues there.
Secondly, he is officially 3lb well-in after a reappearance run at Ripon that screamed Chester Cup.
He was having his first start for Richard Fahey that day - following in the footsteps of Angel Gabrial who won that Ripon race on his debut for the stable before finishing second in this race - and was relatively weak in the market for a horse with that profile.
But, even though he was beaten 3¾ lengths by Trip To Paris, I thought he was unlucky not to win, with his rider sitting with a fair handful for the final 2f but constantly denied a clear run until far too late in the day.
Connections have got lucky with him having just scraped in at the bottom of the handicap, and he is primed to run a massive race for his new trainer, who has an excellent recent record in this race, not least for his Chester-loving owner Dr Marwan Koukash.
Indeed, Koukash could not hide his enthusiasm for the horse in a recent RUK interview - tellingly, saying the horse would have needed the Ripon run pretty badly, as well as being unlucky in the run - Fahey looks to have improved him again on that evidence, and the presence of top course jock Franny Norton on board is clearly another plus.
A lot of rain tomorrow is the only thing that really concerns me - he has proved a weak finisher over trips in excess of 2m2f+ on occasions but that shouldn't be a factor around here and he dug deep when winning over an extended 2m at York last season - but otherwise I think that he will take the world of beating given decent ground.
I also give Gabrial's Star, representing the same owner and trainer combination, a very fair shout at odds of 21.020/1 too, with one specific angle in mind.
He is one who certainly wouldn't mind any rain, having sluiced in on soft ground at Haydock a couple of seasons ago, and crucially he made all the running that day, albeit in only a four-runner race.
He has been held up in all his subsequent starts, and it could that be a draw in stall two here tempts connections into going from the front once again.
And it could also be significant that Fahey eased off him after what appeared a career-best second to the progressive John Reel at Wolverhampton in February to protect his handicap mark for this race, keeping him fresh for this race.
That form entitles him to be running off a career-high mark of 92 here - perhaps even more given John Reel has officially improved 15lb since that February win - and he has also won around here, too. He can act on good or soft ground, and the possible reversion to front-running tactics for the first time in two years makes him a fascinating betting second-string to our bow.
It is interesting to note that high-drawn horses have dominated the last two runnings of the Lily Agnes, something to bear in mind given Silver Wings (1) and Rah Rah (2) are likely to take a fair chunk out of the market in the opener at 14:10.
I am not playing in the race but, if forced, I would take a chance with likely outsider Thee And Me, who didn't clock a bad time when making all at Wolverhampton.
I was tempted by What Say You in the Cheshire Oaks at 14:40 but it simply looks too hard a race on closer inspection, with so many unexposed sorts in opposition.
I am not sure why this promising Newmarket maiden winner has been moved to Rae Guest, as she did perfectly well for Karl Burke, but she has to be on anyone's short list here at around the 10.09/1 mark. Her Rockfel sixth was a decent effort and she is bred to be suited by this longer trip.
Mappin Time rates a fair bet at 14.013/1 in the sprint at 15:45. And confidence would increase were any rain to be at a minimum.
He comes here a fit and in-form horse after being kept busy on the all-weather, can race off a 6lb lower mark on his return to turf, and can also boast a course and distance win, too. Indeed, he also finished a good fourth in this race back in 2011.
Drawn in five, hopefully he can jump adequately and sit handy enough, and be produced with his customary late finish. And Tim Easterby, who also runs Confessional, has his sprint handicappers in decent nick this season.
In the later races on RUK, I think Paddy's Motorbike in the 17:25 is of interest given the well-touted Peterhof was pulled out this morning - that horse would have been a very short-priced favourite here - but I'll stick with the three C4 plays.
Back Gabrial's King at 9.617/2 win and 2.89/5 place in the 15:10 at Chester
Back Gabrial's Star at odds of 21.020/1 in the 15:10 at Chester
Back Mappin Time @ 14.013/1 in the 15:45 at Chester