Craven Meeting Day 3 Tips: Pick Mix for Newmarket win

Can Tony strike gold on the final day of the Craven Meeting?
Can Tony strike gold on the final day of the Craven Meeting?

Tony Calvin returns to the tipping chair for the final day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket and he has a 9/1 shot for your consideration...

"Mix And Mingle looked a useful prospect when winning over course and distance as a juvenile and shaped very well when fourth in the Nell Gwyn at this meeting last year, when the rain-softened ground probably wasn't to her liking."

I wasted 10 minutes trying to pun up "back" and "Wall" in the intro but gave up and decided to leave that to the headline writer - well, we can't do them out of a job, can we? - and so the simple advice is to back Mix And Mingle at 9.08/1 or better in the 7f handicap at 14:25.

The form of the stable is a bit of a concern. Chris Wall has only had 11 runners so far this year and has "only" had three thirds to show for his troubles.

But context is everything in stats. First off such a small sample is hardly conclusive proof of any issue whatsoever - and he has only had six runners in 2017 - and the starting prices of his recent runners read 20/1, 16/1, 33/1, 16/1 and 33/1.

So I am willing to take a chance on the filly at the price. Especially after the latter 33/1 shot mentioned above was a certain Oh So Sassy, just touched off in a photo here on Tuesday.

Don't get me wrong, this could be quite a hot handicap, for all there are only seven runners.

Accession won this race by six lengths first time out last season; Tabarrak is unexposed; Salateen comes here in red--hot form and will be suited by the return to 7f; and Qeyaadah will no doubt be popular with some having his first start for Mick Appleby since leaving Ed Dunlop. And the winner may well come from the two I haven't mentioned.

Mix And Mingle looked a useful prospect when winning over course and distance as a juvenile and shaped very well when fourth in the Nell Gwyn at this meeting last year, when the rain-softened ground probably wasn't to her liking.

She ran perfectly well in the Guineas afterwards, as well as in Listed and Group 3 company, but all in all I think connections would have been underwhelmed by her season.

But off a mark of 99 over 7f on fast ground (they will water tonight I am sure but it should still be quick) - she has yet to get that combination - I think she has the potential to take this race by the scruff of the neck on her first return to handicap company since her juvenile win here.

She was rated 104 when just touched off over 1m on fast ground in a Listed race at Haydock last August - she traded at 1.251/4 in the run - and she looks very well treated on that form.

The winner Aljazzi won a Listed race at Kempton earlier this month, the third Pirouette is now rated 103 after a Listed race second and the fourth Muffri' Ha is now on a mark of 109 after three subsequent wins and a ½ length third in a Group 1 in Meydan.

If she runs up to that level of form, over a shorter trip that looks set to suit, then she must go close. She will get a good tow into the race from Salateen and Tabarrak.


Thoughts on the rest of the card

The opening 6f handicap at 13:50 has been won by some proper Group-class animals in the past - Aclaim last year, and the likes of Danzeno, Es Que Love, Sakhee's Secret and Prohibit in previous seasons - but this year's renewal may not be as strong.

In fact, the 81-rated Victory Angel at the bottom of the weights could be the answer to this - he looks well treated on his Doncaster maiden win, which came in a good time - but I was hoping for a bigger price. So no dice.

The official ratings and common sense tells you that Brando is a very worthy favourite in the Abernant at 15:00 - he improved no end after winning off a mark of 88 at this meeting last year - but the price underlines that point, and if you are looking for one against him maybe the speedy Mayfair Lady who bolted up in a 6f York handicap first time out last season.

The Craven at 15:35 is obviously the race of the day but in terms of a betting heat it leaves me pretty cold.

Levels of fitness will dictate what one of the three form horses come out on top, while Benbatl looked well worth stepping up in class after winning at Doncaster and Eminent has been the subject of persistent gossip all spring.

I can't see any angle into the seven-runner race.

The only other race that presents a punting interest is the 1m handicap on RUK at 17:20 but if you can solve this 16-runner 3yo handicap I firmly doff my cap to you.

Never have so many potentially well-weighted horses lined up for a 10k 0-85 handicap, and I am surprised a few connections aren't giving the race a swerve in search of easier pickings. You could have 7lb in hand here and finish out of the frame.

I am not even going to insult you by putting up a token selection!

Recommended Bet
Back Mix And Mingle at 9.08/1 in the 14:25 at Newmarket

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