Sunday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin likes Lady Bowthorpe at Newmarket

Betfair Tipster Tony Calvin
Tony has two fresh bets for the non-Guineas races on ITV on Sunday

The ITV Racing cameras are out in force on Sunday so Tony Calvin runs us through their live races having already covered the 1000 Guineas on Friday...

"She is the pick of these on the clock too, on that Ascot victory, and has run well on both her starts at this track, also."

Back Lady Bowthorpe in 15:00 at Newmarket at 10.09/1

Having already covered the 1000 Guineas - I have put up Thunder Beauty win-only at 25s ante-post, and Mother Earth each-way at 10/1, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook in the day-of-race market - I will put that Classic to one side and deal with the other six ITV races on Sunday.

I am going to keep this column briefer than usual, as I won't bore you by assessing races and then posting "no bet" copy.

So while I thought Hyanna was a touch overpriced at 14s with the Betfair Sportsbook in Newmarket's 1m4f handicap at 13:50 and the world and their partner (including every bookmaker in the land) saw how unlucky Sea Karats was on her debut as she steps up in class to contest the Listed contest at 14:25 we can quickly discard those races.

So the only other betting race for me at HQ came in the Group 2 Betfair Dahlia Stakes at 15:00.

Lady can strike for in-form Jarvis yard

I seriously toyed with an each-way bet here but, with a dead-eight and the prospect of a non-runner always looming large (especially on ground this quick), I am going with a win-only bet at 9/1 with Lady Bowthorpe with the Betfair Sportsbook.

I do like the cut of her jib here, and she remains a bet at 7s and upwards (she opened up at 10/1 on Friday morning) for me. I may also back her each-way near the off if all eight stand their ground (or on the exchange's each way market, as original place terms stand there).

I know it came off a mark of just 81, but it is no negative that she came to hand early when winning at Lingfield on her return last June, and then she took off form-wise from there. So much so that she is the second highest-rated mare in here on a mark of 108.

Before we underline her form claims, another possible plus to her chances is the form of the William Jarvis stable.

I wouldn't know how many horses Jarvis has in his yard these days but those he has appear in fair nick, with two of his last four runners winning and one of the others finishing second at 12/1 (albeit in a four-runner race). It may not be relevant but a stable sending out winners is never a bad sign.

And everything surely points to Lady Bowthorpe having a much better chance than 10/1 quotes suggest.

She was hugely impressive when winning a Group 3 at Ascot by 4 ¾ lengths on good ground in July, and then perhaps wasn't given the most canny ride at Sandown next time, having sat too far off the pace in which you had to be on the front end.

And I think you can mark up her 3 ¾-length sixth in the Group 1 Sun Chariot on her final start, as I am not sure the heavy ground would have played to her strengths there, and she may have been disadvantaged by her track position, too.

She is the pick of these on the clock too, on that Ascot victory, and has run well on both her starts at this track, also. She may have finished last of six here last summer, but she had a nightmare run and may well have won with anything like a clear run.

Two I liked at Hamilton but no bets

I won't have a bet in the two Hamilton races on ITV but I do think Alright Sunshine is weighted to win if the first-time blinkers straighten him out in the 1m5f handicap at 14:40.

That is a fair if, mind you, though he did run okay over hurdles last time and he will get a decent pace to aim at in here.

I was also very tempted to stick up Significantly in the 5f conditions race at 15:15 as I thought the opening 16/1 underplayed his chances a fair bit. That was my immediate reaction, anyway.

He is a horse who may not fully see out 6f (though staying is always relative to the opposition), so he ran a cracker over that trip when second at Newmarket last time (traded at 1.19 in the run) and the step down to 5f will suit him.

But three others in here like to go forward too, and he is the lowest-rated of the quintet by some way. And I only belatedly clocked just how good Dragon Symbol looked when winning at Kempton, though he has been very defensively priced up at 5/4.

Lightly-raced colt a winner in waiting

My other bet on Sunday is Ispahan at 6/1 with the Sportsbook in Salisbury's seven-runner 1m6f handicap at 14:05.

He will be a similar price on the exchange if you want to pay there.

I am very worried about Opera Gift - and I could even back Ispahan without that rival as well - but David Simcock's 4yo is surely a winner waiting to happen off a mark of just 81.

Salisbury wide 1280.jpg

He didn't look the most straightforward on occasions, in limited appearances, last season, so gelding him may have been a good move, but it must be said he was given a mountain or two to climb when stationed in last at York on his final start.

Basically, he had no chance that day, even in a race that favoured closers, so this well-bred individual did very well to get within 4 lengths of Prince Alex, who re-opposes here on 5lb worse terms, at the line.

He has form on quick ground, he has only four runs under his belt, and I just hope Andrea Atzeni doesn't sit too far off the pace here, as this horse doesn't do anything too quickly. But I do think he is a stayer with a lot of upside.

Simcock's horses are rarely drilled first time out but all his horses have been running well of late (going into Saturday his recent form figures read 62244334133).

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