Saturday Racing Tips: Back Odeon to be the star of the screen on St Leger day

Tony Calvin
12 September 2014

James Given, trainer of Tony's big-price fancy Odeon

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Tony Calvin has gone for a huge outsider in Channel 4's feature race, the St Leger, on Saturday afternoon and here you can read exactly why, plus our man's thoughts on some of the other Doncaster races on the box...

"But you have to assume that James Given would have left no stone unturned into trying to calm and settle the horse at home. And if he does manage to cool him down - stick bath plugs in his ears, if he wants - then the raw potential is there for him to run a big race."

Back Odeon to Win @ 60.059/1 or bigger - 15:50 Doncaster

Back Odeon to Place @ 11.010/1 or bigger - 15:50 Doncaster

Racing does like its little dramas, and I suppose anybody looking in from the outside could be forgiven for wondering what all the fuss is about if a bloke wants to stick 3mm of water on his racecourse.

He is hardly flooding it, is he?

But unfortunately it is quite a big deal.

At the time of writing this, I still have no idea whether or not Doncaster clerk of the course Roderick Duncan is going to turn the taps on come Friday evening for the sole benefit of favourite Kingston Hill in the meeting's big race.

And nor does he, because as of this morning he still wasn't ruling it out.

It is little short of astonishing that he is even considering it, to be honest. He surely wouldn't dare. I know ante-post betting is very small beer these days but punters would have laid Kingston Hill on Betfair after looking at the weather forecast earlier in the week, and indeed backed other horses against it for that very reason.

Yet, as of Friday morning, Duncan - god, I just had a flashback to the 80s and remembered "Duncan Dares" - was still considering whether to water on ground that he himself described as predominantly good to soft.

You couldn't make it up.

With or without watering, Kingston Hill has a big chance in the St Leger. His best run actually came on fast ground in the Derby, this trip looks set to suit him, and I couldn't put anyone off him at odds of around 4.3100/30.

But I can't resist a small Win and Place bet on Odeon at odds of 60.059/1 and 11.010/1 respectively in the Classic at 15:50. If Kingston Hill doesn't run to form - or indeed, run - then I think this race could be ripe for an upset.

I backed and tipped Odeon for the Dante back in May and he ran a blinder to be beaten only three lengths by The Grey Gatsby there considering that he sweated up beforehand and raced too freely.

And it has been a similar story in his three starts since, most notably in the Voltigeur last time.

He was very headstrong going to the start at York, pulling Graham Lee's arms out, and sweated up very badly, too. So it was little surprise that he drifted to a Betfair Starting Price of 131.25, and 14.48 for a place.

Against that background, I was pretty staggered that he managed to hold on for third there, especially as he also ran far too freely in the race again, too.

Okay, he was beaten 10½ lengths behind Postponed and Snow Sky, but he still finished in front of three of today's, shorter-priced, rivals - Marzocco, Granddukeoftuscany and Hartnell were in behind - and I thought it was a huge effort in the circumstances.

Some people will say that he has no chance of staying this extra 2f+ if he behaves like that again, and they are probably right.

But you have to assume that James Given would have left no stone unturned into trying to calm and settle the horse at home. And if he does manage to cool him down - stick bath plugs in his ears, if he wants - then the raw potential is there for him to run a big race.

And, remember, he is a full brother to a Leger runner-up in Kite Wood, so he is bred to stay.

Earlier on in the card, I can't see any betting angle in the Champagne Stakes at 14:05, but I don't think that you can play in the Portland without at least having favourite Muthmir as a saver.

He is a bet at 6.611/2 or bigger in the 14:40.

Siding with a favourite in such a seemingly-competitive race is not my usual MO, but I think time will tell that Muthmir could be thrown in here off 100.

Yes, he was beaten over two lengths off a mark of 98 in the 32Red Cup at Goodwood last time - where he was the punt of the season into 5-2 from a morning 7-1 - but it could be that the horse was feeling the effects of his impressive York win just a week earlier.

Certainly, you get the impression that William Haggas believes that he wasn't at his best there, and he will have freshened him up for this.

He travels like a Group horse and this quickening ground - Duncan won't water tonight surely? - will be right up his street, as may this 5f140yd trip, as he has tons of pace.

I toyed with having a saver on Out Do, but I do think Muthmir has the ability to win this by daylight if he is on his A-game.

Normal "outsider" service is resumed though, as I like the look of Cable Bay at odds of 12.011/1 or bigger in the 15:15.

Aljamaaheer is the obvious one to beat but I thought Cable Bay ran with some promise under tender handling first time out at York last month.

Last year's Dewhurst runner-up is expected to be a lot sharper for that and on his juvenile form he has every chance in this - he is the third best in here on official marks, just 2lb behind Gregorian and 1lb off the favourite - and his stable has been in great form here this week.

Nothing catches my eye in the two Chester races on C4 but good luck if you are betting there or on the excellent Leopardstown card later, that you can catch on ATR.

Recommended Bets

Back Odeon (Win) @ 60.059/1 or bigger - 15:50 Doncaster
Back Odeon (Place) @ 11.010/1 or bigger - 15:50 Doncaster
Back Muthmir @ 6.611/2 or bigger - 14:40 Doncaster
Back Cable Bay @ 12.011/1 or bigger - 15:15 Doncaster