Saturday Racing Tips: Pipe pair offer best Betfair Hurdle value

Tony Calvin
06 February 2015

David Pipe's Swing Bowler is a win and place bet for Tony in Saturday's Betfair Hurdle

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Tony Calvin picks the best value bets from Saturday's Betfair-sponsored Newbury card including a pair at huge odds in the 15:35 feature race

"It seems obvious to me that Swing Bowler has been laid out for this race once again, and I am surprised that she is available at such a massive price."

Back Swing Bowler @ 38.037/1 to win and 7.06/1 for a place in the 15:35 at Newbury

The first, and most obvious, thing to say about the Betfair Hurdle (15:35, Saturday at Newbury) is that it is ridiculously competitive.

I wouldn't be surprised if any of the 24 horses won so, as ever, you have to be led by the prices.

My idea of the most likely winner is Activial, but I can't get over-excited by odds of 8.88/1. I know connections were a little bit disappointed by his Ascot third, however creditable it was, as his homework - and apparently a racecourse gallop - had suggested to Harry Fry's team that he was a good deal better than his mark.

It could well be, with that run under his belt, that he will show his true colours at Newbury. But, off a 6lb higher mark than Ascot in a much deeper race, his odds aren't quite big enough to tempt me in. I think he should be favourite, though.

The odds of the David Pipe pair are appealing, however. So the advice is to back Swing Bowler at odds of 38.037/1 and Balgarry at 23.022/1. I will be backing the first-named horse win and place.

Swing Bowler is particularly interesting. She is one of a couple of Pipe handicappers who have really caught my eye in recent weeks - regular readers of this column, and my Twitter followers, will know the other one - and I thought she was given a pretty easy time of it when fifth at Kempton last time.

I bet Pipe was thrilled to see that the mare was dropped 3lb after that run, and she is now on a very attractive mark indeed. She has now gone down a very generous 8lb in the weights on the back of just two runs this season, and can now race off a 13lb lower mark than when a good fourth from 9lb out of the handicap in the Scottish Champion Hurdle last season.

Going into the race at least, I think she is the best handicapped horse in here.

Other positives are her form in this race - she has finished third and fifth in the past two seasons - and first-time blinkers, as to be fair she did look a bit lazy at Kempton and in need of a wake-up call.

It seems obvious to me that she has been laid out for this race once again, and I am surprised that she is available at such a massive price. I am also backing her for a place at odds of 7.613/2 and bigger.

Her stablemate Balgarry is not as well handicapped but nowhere near as exposed after just six starts, and is a good second string to our betting bow.

He posted an excellent effort when winning over course and distance in a good time three years ago and may be poised to fulfil his potential after two runs this season.

He clearly went off too hard for his own good when well backed on his reappearance from a very lengthy absence in the Ladbroke, and ran much better when second at Sandown last time.

Granted, he has been raised a pretty harsh 5lb for that, but I fancy that he will take another big step forward here with more experience under his belt. Keep an eye out for how Bouvreuil, third in that Sandown race, fares in the first.

The only thing I don't like about Houblon Des Obeaux in the Betfair Denman Chase at 14:25 is the price - I was hoping he would be about 4-1 against sexier types - but I do like the look of Uxizandre in the 15:00.

Back him at odds of 6.25/1.

Champion chaser Sire De Grugy has something to prove on his return from injury and Mr Mole steps up a good deal in class here, so I am surprised that the selection is available at 5-1+.

It will be interesting to see how he is ridden, given that fellow JP McManus horse Mr Mole has improved since making the running and Uxizandre has often forced the pace in the past, as he did when beating Simply Ned and Dodging Bullets at Cheltenham in November.

But he doesn't have to lead and Barry Geraghty, who rode him when winning at Cheltenham, may be content to sit in behind Mr Mole and Upsilon Bleu, and make his move from 2 out.

And hopefully the return of Barry Geraghty will see Uxizandre's jumping improve, as he jumped poorly, and consistently left, under AP at Leopardstown last time.

Rydon Pynes nearly made it as a bet in the 13:50 - he goes well when fresh, and finished a close second in the race last season - but didn't quite make the cut, while the two C4 races at Warwick do nothing for me from a betting perspective.

Be lucky.

Recommended Bets
Back Swing Bowler @ 38.037/1 to win and 7.06/1 for a place in the 15:35 at Newbury
Back Balgarry @ 23.022/1 in the 15:35 at Newbury
Back Uxizandre at odds of 6.25/1 in the 15:00 at Newbury