Saturday Racing Tips: Penny Drops bet of the day at Goodwood

Keep an eye on the conditions at Haydock
Keep an eye on the conditions at Haydock

There appears to be some uncertainty about conditions at Haydock and Goodwood but Tony Calvin reckons you can use that to your advantage, as he returns to pick out the best value bets from Saturday's Channel 4 races...

"Glenard, who won a decent 1m4f race here last season, is weighted to win races. So I am going to take a chance at the odds – he would be clear favourite on fast ground, after all - and hope the rain isn’t too heavy tomorrow."

Back Glenard in the 13:35 at Haydock at 8.07/1 or better

Haydock 13:35 - Glenard

The wet weather has decimated fields in the last couple of days, and no doubt it will claim plenty of non-runners tomorrow, too.

But I am going to chance with a horse that officially has no soft ground form to speak of in the 13:35 and back Glenard at odds of 8.07/1 or better.
The going at Haydock was the talk of Twitter today, as the going changed to firm in the morning despite 5mm of overnight rain.
But it was changed to good after the first race after heavy showers, and it could well be on the testing side, come race time, if Saturday's forecast is correct. And a glance at the formbook suggests that will not be in Glenard's favour.
However, while it was reported as good ground on all form sites in the Chester Cup, the jockeys thought it was a lot softer than that, and Glenard ran a decent race to finish fifth.
This race is a lot less competitive and I think Glenard, who won a decent 1m4f race here last season, is weighted to win races. So I am going to take a chance at the odds - he would be clear favourite on fast ground, after all - and hope the rain isn't too heavy tomorrow.

Haydock 14:05 - Run With Pride

I can't see much of an edge in the Temple Stakes at 14:40 - the ground will really be key here so leave your Betfair bets until you know the score - or the listed fillies 6f race, but a once-raced four-year-old gelding has tempted me in the 6f handicap at 14:05.
Back Run With Pride at odds of 9.08/1 or bigger.
The horse cost 200,000gns as a yearling and was with Sir Michael Stoute until being sold for just 7,500gns last August.
Apparently, the horse showed a lot of ability at home as a juvenile with Stoute without making it to the track, and then suffered setbacks as a three-year-old.
But when he eventually made it to the track for his new trainer, he showed the wait had been worthwhile with a convincing 33/1 victory at Doncaster earlier this month.
And while it is never wise to read too much into winning trainers' post-race comments - they are often a bit full of themselves - it is at least noteworthy that Derek Shaw commented: "He´s been very professional and done everything so easily at home. Everything he´s worked with at home he´s gone better. He´ll come on bundles."
That Doncaster win came with cut in the ground  - and in a good time too - and he could be worth chancing off a mark of 80 after that impressive debut.
I was also going to take a chance with Windhoek in the opener at Goodwood but watching the rain fall again at the course yesterday, and the forecast of showers throughout today, put me off.
It is not that he doesn't go on the soft, it is just that he has never been tried on anything worse than good, so we don't know. But you have to assume that there is a reason for that.
If the rain doesn't materialise though, and it is just on the easy side and not hock-deep, I think he has a decent shout. He won a 1m2f Meydan handicap off 104 in January, returned to run an excellent second in a Group 3 at Lingfield in March, and ran well here when seventh over a mile at Glorious Goodwood last season. But I have to pass given the ground concerns.
Pether's Moon didn't find as much as expected when outbattled by Gatewood last time but in theory he should reverse the placings on 3lb better terms. But the fact that he didn't put the race to bed at Ascot last time is a concern, so at the prices I'll sit this one out, too.

Goodwood 14:55 - Penny Drops

However, I am going to play in the 14:55 in the shape of Penny Drops at odds of 7.06/1 or better.
She took a long time to confirm the promise of her debut third over 6f in the soft to Night Of Thunder here last season, being beaten at odds of 8/15 and 2/5 on two occasions.
But she could have bumped into one on her reappearance - indeed, the winner Perfect Blessings runs in the listed race at Haydock at 15:10 - and didn't make any mistake when beating Thursday's Salisbury scorer Backstage Gossip at Lingfield earlier in the month.
She looks well-treated off a mark of 87, has course form, is proven with cut, and she could just prove best in a competitive handicap.

Recommended Bets:
Back Glenard in the 13:35 at Haydock at 8.07/1 or better
Back Run With Pride in the 14:05 at Haydock at 9.08/1 or better
Back Penny Drops in the 14:55 at Goodwood at 7.06/1 or better

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