Saturday Racing Tips: Back Angel to fly past Super Sprint rivals at Newbury

Can Tony boost a very impressive P&L this weekend?
Can Tony boost a very impressive P&L this weekend?

There's good flat action at Newbury and Newmarket and Tony Calvin is on hand to identify all the best value bets from both cards...

Recommended Bets
Back Johnny Barnes at 10.09/1 or better in the 13:50 at Newbury
Back Restorer at 10.09/1 or bigger in 14:25 at Newbury
Back More Mischief at 7/1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook in 14:40 at Newmarket
Back Maggies Angel at 5.59/2 or bigger in 15:35 at Newbury

I am proceeding on the basis of soft ground at Newbury on Saturday, and if that is the case then we could get some high-profile defections - I am thinking the likes of Spark Plug - but I don't think that will stop Maggies Angel winning the Weatherbys Super Sprint at 15:35.

It is not my usual MO to tip favourites in big fields but she strikes me as more of a 3/1 chance than a 9/2 poke, so I have to be with her at 5.59/2 or bigger. She has everything going for her.

I'll summarise. She is the best horse in the race judged on her second in a Listed race over 6f at Newmarket last time, where she was disadvantaged by being slowly away and racing widest on the centre of the track in the closing stages.

She also boasts the best speed figure in the race on that performance, and her earlier 5f form puts her in with a decent shout, too. One of those efforts, a fourth in a Listed race at York, came over 5f in the soft.

Her midfield draw gives her jockey options, and she hails from a stable that has won two of the last four runnings of this race. My only slight worry is that she could be taken off her feet early by some pacier types but I fully expect her to come home stronger than anything else.


Johnny Barnes can score at Newbury

There is not a great deal of pace in the 13:50 so common sense dictates that Jim Crowley should take the bull by the horns and try to make all on Rusumaat, just as the horse did when winning impressively at Haydock three starts ago. That was very strong form which has worked out really well, and it fully warranted an 8lb rise.

Mind you, I thought Crowley would go on at Sandown last time, and he didn't. If forcing tactics are adopted again, I think he could be hard to peg back, but the prospect of soft ground puts me off him.

I can't have Remarkable or Realize at the prices, and I'm happy to side with the favourite's stablemate Johnny Barnes at 10.09/1 or bigger. To small stakes.

Ideally, I want him to have a decent pace to aim at - and he could well try and make it himself if no-one else wants to go on - but I certainly think he is handicapped to play a leading role here and 7f in testing ground will be fine for him. He started last season rated 110 but he is now down to a mark of 101, and didn't run badly in France last time.

Soft ground would suit him really well, as he showed when winning a 1m Group 3 in France a couple of seasons ago.


Tactical race will suit Restorer



If there is no guaranteed pace in the opener, I can't see any in the 14:25 though Arthenus has made the running once before.

This could be a very messy, tactical race therefore and that may not suit Restorer, who is a confirmed hold-up horse who can be very keen.

But, as I thought he ran a cracker in the Wolferton last time despite not getting the best of runs, and would love soft ground - his two wins have come on it, and one those came in a 1m2f Listed race - I am going to chuck a few quid on him at 10.09/1 or bigger.

He has a fair bit to find on official figures but it is not hard to see the form horses running below par here if they do get plenty of rain.


Make Mischief at Newmarket

I can't argue with Magical Memory being favourite in the 6f race at 15:00 and nothing else appeals at the prices - Tupi looks big at 9/1 but he would prefer it quicker - so I will sit that out.

Newmarket's 1m4f Fillies and Mares Listed race at 14:40 looks pretty tricky to call.

I couldn't argue with the progressive Ribblesdale fifth Apphia heading up the market, and I think High Hopes has a big chance if seeing out the extra 2f here. Then you have the lowly-rated God Given, a Nathanial half-sister to Postponed, who I'm sure is a lot better than her current mark of 79, and this looks trappy.

But I think More Mischief represents the most solid proposition at 7/1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook - or win and place if you are an exchange player at similar prices - to continue her trainer Jedd O'Keeffe's golden last few weeks.

The going at Newmarket is mainly good at the moment but, if the forecast is correct they are due a fair bit of rain on Friday night into Saturday, and that wouldn't bother her one bit.

Her four efforts on soft ground in this country read 1221, and she is equally at home on a better surface as she illustrated with a good fourth at Goodwood last season and when chasing home Maleficent Queen at Ayr.

Her all-weather form is probably even better, as she chased home Nezwaah at Newcastle last summer, and a return to that track saw her beat Chain Of Daisies over 1m2f last time.

She picks up a 3lb penalty for that win, which isn't ideal, but that was a probably a career-best and the step up to 1m4f shouldn't be an issue at all.

We also have two jumps races from Market Rasen, and Kapstadt interested me the most in the handicap hurdle. He returns to the National Hunt sphere after a good summer on the Flat, and does so on a fair mark. However, I will stick to the Flat this weekend.

Good luck.


Recommended Bets
Back Johnny Barnes at 10.09/1 or better in the 13:50 at Newbury
Back Restorer at 10.09/1 or bigger in 14:25 at Newbury
Back More Mischief at 7/1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook in 14:40 at Newmarket
Back Maggies Angel at 5.59/2 or bigger in 15:35 at Newbury

Tony Calvin's P&L (April 14 to July 21 inclusive)

103 selections
13 winners
P&L (to Betfair SP): +60.62

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