Saturday Racing Tips: Camelot to be leading Haydock Lady and Queen can rule at Sandown

Tony Calvin
01 July 2016

Will you be amongst the winners at Sandown (pictured) and Haydock on Saturday

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There's plenty of competitive racing at Haydock and Sandown on Eclipse day and our big-price tipster Tony Calvin has added to his midweek selections with three more wagers for you to consider...

"The ground is an obvious concern but her sire Montjeu's progeny have their best strike rate on heavy - and it could well be heavy here come Saturday afternoon - and she clearly is completely unexposed, and hopefully can bridge the obvious class and form gap here."

Back Lady Of Camelot at 9.08/1 in the 14:15 at Haydock

It is no surprise whatsoever that the market for the seven-runner Eclipse offers very little in the way of tempting bets.

I am sure that there will be many people who believe that The Gurkha should have won the St James's Palace Stakes at Ascot last time - though how anyone can have a strong opinion given Galileo Gold won by 1 ¼ lengths, with Frankie saying the horse was idling in front in the final furlong, is not looking at the same race I did - and is a good thing here at 2.0621/20.

They may be right, of course, and he could sluice up here given that it looked for the whole world that an extra 2f would be right up his strasse, and his pedigree backs that up, too.

He is the one horse in here with the potential brilliance to take this field apart, but let's not forget that he is currently rated inferior to both My Dream Boat and Time Test, and those two come here on the back of two career-best efforts.

The Gurkha is the likeliest winner, as his odds suggest, but I just wonder whether the supposed "unlucky" defeat at Ascot is responsible for his skinny-ish odds.

Would he have been a bigger price, I wonder, had he won by an all-out nose at Ascot? I think he may have been, you know.

The forgotten horse of the race could be Irish Guineas fourth Bravery if the ground dries up. He could step forward massively, but it is pushing it to suggest that he can beat two of the principals, let alone all three, so my look at the "Without Favourite" market was reluctantly shelved.

However, he was drawn out of the race when a 12-1 chance in the French Derby and wasn't seen at his best in a small-field, soft-ground, race at Gowran Park a fortnight ago. Stranger things have happened, though perhaps not too many.

Brando could boss Charge but hopes still high for Humidor

We covered the Charge at 14:00 in our ante-post column on Tuesday afternoon and I am happy with the position.

A bit of honesty to start with, and that is that I am beginning to think that the Wokingham runner-up Brando is a bit of a good thing now the field has really cut up. But there is no point in me tipping 3.55/2 pokes in this column, especially when they are drawn 8 of 13 at Sandown.

I hope it buckets down for Humidor and that he rediscovers his 2015 mojo, which saw him win three times in handicap company from marks ranging from 94 to 100.

The first of those saw him make all at Goodwood, and how I would love to see him spring from the premier one draw - come on Georgie, you must have been gunning him from the stalls at home - and stick it up to this field.

But I suspect he could start slowly again and forfeit his position on the rail, and that Brando and Spirit Quartz will dominate this, even from their wide draws. Here is hoping that I am wrong.

Rain needed for Ship to Fire in Challenge

We also covered the Challenge at 14:35 in the above link to the ante-post article.

The negatives for Fire Ship are the outside draw and the fact that he is 3lb out of the handicap, but if he clicks in a first-time visor and gets a prominent position early then I genuinely like his chances against a less exposed bunch.

William Knight is 3-49 with horses in a first-time visor in the past 10 years, which isn't that great, but his stable have won with three of their last six runners. He is one horse that really does want the rain to continue to arrive on Friday and Saturday, though.

I will go in again in the race though, as Melvin The Grate looks big to me at 26.025/1.

I was with him at Epsom last time and he loomed up threateningly at one stage before a lack of condition may have told - that was his first run since January - and he has been dropped another 2lb for it.

He has soft-ground form, can hopefully get a good early position from stall one, and his stable is flying.

So while I am at it check out their Bernie's Boy in the RUK race at 13:35. He has been gelded since he last ran and I think he will like the give in the ground.

An Aussie Queen to reign at Sandown?

Snow Moon looks another worthy favourite in the 15:10 as she didn't get the run of the race at Newbury last time and the step back in trip could be in her favour, too. She is well regarded.

But having seen Australian Queen prove so unlucky in a Salisbury handicap last time, albeit from a mark of only 90, I have to give her a chance at 13.012/1 or bigger.

I am not saying that she would have beaten the clear-cut winner but she did remarkably well to finish third given the troubled run she had, and this highly-tried filly - she had previously run in the Oaks - will surely show improved form here over a stiff 1m that promises to suit.

Camelot to deliver more Gosden luck in Oaks

Over at Haydock, the six-runner opener at 13:45 doesn't make a great deal of betting appeal, so I will swiftly move on. I think Wild Hacked will improve for the step up in trip but this will be the softest ground he has ever encountered, so that's an obvious worry.

The same is also true of Lady Of Camelot in the Lancashire Oaks at 14:15 but I am willing to give her the benefit of the doubt at 9.08/1 or bigger.

Those who have clocked the fact that John Gosden has won three of the last five runnings of this race will probably first turn their attention to her stablemate, Furia Cruzada, after an excellent Duke Of Cambridge second to Usherette over a mile at Royal Ascot.

She has form over this trip and on the ground, and looks a very solid proposition in an open and competitive race, but Lady Of Camelot, the lowest-rated horse in here by some way, is hopefully ready to make a big step forward.

Gosden's willingness to "roll the dice" in these kind of situations has been mentioned to saturation point in the media in the last couple of years - so one more won't hurt - and let's hope his aggressive approach pays dividends again.

The Montjeu filly has clearly had her problems since a sole December outing at two but she reappeared from an 18-month absence to win a red-hot Leicester 1m4f maiden on fast ground in May in convincing style.

Her win there, at odds of 16-1 in a first-time hood, suggests it may have been unexpected. It may have been - though it is often a mistake to assume a big SP is evidence of a lack of confidence, as I think the influence of "stable money" is massively overplayed in these Betfair-dominated days - but there is no doubting the substance of that form.

The runner-up, Ajman Princess, finished second in the Ribblesdale next time out, while the third won her maiden at Doncaster.

The ground is an obvious concern but her sire Montjeu's progeny have their best strike rate on heavy - and it could well be heavy here come Saturday afternoon - and she clearly is completely unexposed, and hopefully can bridge the obvious class and form gap here.

Solid Duretto should place at least

The Old Newton Cup at 14:50 has a very solid favourite in the shape of Duretto.

He reportedly lost a hind shoe when a slightly disappointing fifth when 4-1 favourite for the valuable 1m4f handicap at Epsom on Derby Day - he may have been produced a touch too soon there, as well - and his earlier second to subsequent winner King Bolete at Ascot reads very well.

He still looks well handicapped to me off just a 2lb higher mark than at Ascot, and has winning soft ground form too, so he looks set to run a massive race.

But he trades around the 5-1 mark having been double that earlier in the week, and trouble in running is going to play a big factor here, and this late-closer could get his fair share from stall 12 of 19.

And dangers aren't hard to spot either - Penglai Pavilion could go well at a price down in trip, and I was toying with taking leave of my senses for a while and putting up Windshear from a sliding mark - so I will sit this out.

It will be a bit disappointing if Duretto isn't at least placed, though, if you do want an each-way interest.

Recommended Bets

Back Lady Of Camelot at 9.08/1 in the 14:15 at Haydock
Back Melvin The Grate at 26.025/1 in the 14:35 at Sandown
Back Australian Queen at 13.012/1 in the 15:10 at Sandown

Already Recommended

Back Humidor at 65.064/1 in the 14:00, ante-post
Back Fire Ship at 34.033/1 and 25-1 each way 1,2,3,4 ante-post in 14:35