Our value hunter extraordinaire looks at the Goodwood and Newmarket cards in an attempt to find the best big-priced bets from Saturday's races
"Lincoln has two pieces of form this season that would make him very hard to beat off a mark of 100 here, notably his ½ length second to Speculative Bid in the Victoria Cup, the pair 2 1/4 lengths clear, and his third to Markaz in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket."
Lincoln has fallen out the back of the box on his last three starts - I suppose in this flat screen era, I better say the left side of the TV - but I am prepared to give him one more chance at a big price in the 14:35 at Goodwood.
Back him at odds of 27.026/1 or bigger.
The selection has two pieces of form this season that would make him very hard to beat off a mark of 100 here, notably his ½ length second to Speculative Bid in the Victoria Cup, the pair 2 1/4 lengths clear, and his third to Markaz in the Group 3 Criterion Stakes at Newmarket.
The problem is that he has underperformed badly in his last three starts, but at least he has been dropped 4lb for them.
His most recent effort in the Hungerford is the most worrying as he was never going at any stage at Newbury, but Mick Channon must be happy with the horse to be turning him out just a fortnight later.
And there are excuses for his earlier two defeats.
Richard Hughes had a brain-freeze in the International at Ascot, the horse somehow ending up on the far rail from his high, admittedly unfavourable draw on the stands' side. He was heavily-backed into 9-1 there, too. And as for his effort over 1m here subsequently, quite simply he doesn't stay that trip.
So, back over 7f and off a good mark of 100 on ground that won't be a problem, he is well worth chancing to bounce back to form.
The obvious other negative is a draw in 17, but this is Goodwood and you pay your money, and take your chance round here. And he is a hold-up horse, so Charles Bishop will have to drop him in anyway.
Suzi's Connoisseur has the talent, and the conditions, to make his presence felt off a mark of 97 but I've given him too many chances.
He could easily win this though, as could Tatlisu after bouncing back to form in the Great St Wilfrid last time. The latter may be better known as a 6f performer these days but he gets this extra furlong ok, and the handicapper has played fair by leaving him off the same mark after his good third at Ripon.
The Group 3 2yo fillies race at 14:00 is not really my cup of tea but I can fully see why Belvoir Bay was put in as favourite when the betting opened on Thursday afternoon.
She was very impressive off a mark of 84 here over 6f on good to firm last time and is well worth a chance in this company. But she does have her stamina to prove on softer ground, and so far her sire Equiano's progeny have shown a preference for faster conditions. A dry 24 hours will be in her favour.
The other two Channel 4 races on the card don't have an appealing shape to them, to these eyes at least.
Kodi Bear looked a Group 1 a horse when winning at Salisbury last time and is a worthy odds-on chance in the Celebration Mile at 15:45 and I suspect Fun Mac will take the beating in the March Stakes at 15:10, http://btfr.co/120272052.
But given the latter was withdrawn lame at the start of the Ebor last Saturday, there is obviously a doubt there, so no bet for me.
With 16 runners, luck in-running is going to play a big part in deciding the winner of the Beverley Bullet at 14:20.
Logic suggests that you need a low-drawn - the bias here is well known, and the last three winners of this race have been berthed in stalls 1, 2 and 1 - hold-up horse, and Line Of Reason fits the bill, even if he does carry a 4lb penalty for his Cork listed race win in May.
He didn't have a chance from his high draw in the Nunthorpe and again was not lucky in that respect on his previous start in the King George at Goodwood, doing very well to finish fourth down the middle given the action was on the far side rail.
But he obviously hasn't been missed in the market at around the 6-1 mark, and I can see Graham Lee sitting and suffering on the rail with a handful in the closing stages, so I'll pass at the price. He is my idea of the likeliest winner, though.
Over at Newmarket, a reproduction of either Lucky Kristale's second at York last time or her second to Tropics at Windsor will see her very hard to beat in the 15:25.
But there are three off-putting factors about this course and distance Group 2 juvenile winner. The first is that ideally she would want fast ground; the second is the unknown as to whether the first-time visor will work, and the third is her price.
If there is a bet on the card, then it is Intense Tango in the 1m5f handicap at 14:50.
There is no big story to her chances. She progressed into a very smart juvenile over hurdles over the winter, winning an admittedly weak Grade 2 at Doncaster and finishing fifth at Aintree in a Grade 1, and she ran into a couple of progressive sorts over 1m4f at Pontefract last time.
She is 4lb higher here but, given her hurdling exploits and the extra furlong - she ran a blinder over 1m6f at Haydock last season against smart handicappers - I think she has a live chance of winning this decent pot.
Back her at odds of 10.09/1 or better.
Proposed was one of the dozen left in at the latest forfeit stage of the St Leger, and that race will be down to 11 if he can't at least make the frame off a mark of 95 here.
He has a chance but I'd be more wary of the claims of Farquhar, from a stable who won this race with a similar type in Caravan Rolls On in 2012, and Karraar, from the ever-dangerous William Haggas yard.
Back Lincoln at 27.026/1 in the 14:35 at Goodwood
Back Intense Tango at odds of 10.09/1 in the 14:50 at Newmarket