Saturday Racing Tips: Get Lucky at Newcastle on Saturday

Can we score at Newcastle on Saturday?

The Channel 4 cameras will be at Newcastle and Newmarket on Saturday but Tony Calvin only has eyes for the north-east action. Read his thoughts on Saturday's racing, including four big-priced bets, here... 

"It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if Lucky Bridle's owner, and local Newcastle lad, Graham Wylie sent Mullins to France at the start of last year with the brief to buy him a Plate winner, and the trainer came back with this horse."

Back Angel Gabrial @ 7.413/2 and Lucky Bridle @ 11.010/1 in the Northumberland Plate, 15:50 at Newcastle

When it comes to "plot" horses, they don't get any more obvious than Lucky Bridle in the Northumberland Plate at 15:50.
So let's keep it simple, stupid, and back him at 11.010/1.
Willie Mullins showed yet again last week, with Pique Sous in the Queen Alexandra, that he is a master of landing staying contests on the Flat. And the horse that has replaced his Royal Ascot winner, the ante-post favourite for this race before being pulled out on Thursday, in the line-up screams "Back Me".
It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if owner, and local Newcastle lad, Graham Wylie sent Mullins to France at the start of last year with the brief to buy him a Plate winner, and the trainer came back with this horse.
He showed ability when winning on good ground over hurdles last year, and tuned up for this when third over a clearly inadequate 1m2f at Cork last month.
Mullins hasn't won this race before but it is becoming farmed by jumps trainers in recent seasons - they have taken three of the last four runnings - and, stepped up to 2m on decent ground, Lucky Bridle is likely to improve a good deal. He has a fair midfield draw in 11, so all boxes are nicely ticked.
Talking of having everything in their favour, I don't think that you can play in the race without having the 7.413/2 chance Angel Gabrial in your betting portfolio.
He looked the best horse when an unfortunate second in the Chester Cup last time, a 5lb rise for that is fair, and he simply looks primed to run a massive race.
The only downside with him is that he is a hold-up horse drawn in 1, and his 3lb claimer, however in-form and talented, has a fair job on his hands negotiating a clear passage. But the Chester run strongly suggests that he has the horse underneath him to get the job done, or at least finish in the frame for his each-way backers.
I like Jack Luey at odds of 9.08/1 or bigger in the 14:05.
The reasoning is simple. He ran a cracker when third over 5f at Musselburgh last time, the step back up to 6f won't inconvenience, and he acts on any ground, which is helpful when you are tipping 24 hours in advance and with a relatively unsettled weather forecast.
The only worry is that he is basically handicapped up to his ability but he is in-form, everything looks in his favour, and he ran well when third in the Gosforth Park Cup at this meeting last season.
Farlow also looks pretty solid at around 10.09/1 in the 15:15.
He just lost out in a three-way photo over course and distance last month, and ran well when stepped up to 1m1f when fifth at Epsom last time, where Thursday's promoted scorer Dance And Dance finished a neck behind him.
The handicapper hasn't raised him for those efforts - a rare act of kindness - and he looks a solid option
I very nearly recommended a saver on Prince's Trust, gelded since we last saw him and also having his first start for William Haggas, but I'll just stick with Farlow.
I was also very keen to give Danzeno another chance in the Group 3 sprint at 14:40, but I was hoping for a bigger price.
I think that you can draw a line through his disappointing run at York last time, when he was a very well-backed favourite off a mark of 101 in that 6f handicap, because he apparently got very worked up in the stalls and hung badly in the race itself.
I imagine that the excellent Mick Appleby - who rates this as easily the best horse he has handled - has got to work on those deficiencies at home. And if Danzeno comes here in the same mood as he was when bolting up on his reappearance at Newmarket, then I think he will find the improvement needed to win this.
But betting is all about the odds, and I was hoping for a bigger price after that York showing, especially now that he is stepped up to Group company for the first time.
The Newcastle card throws up a lot more attractive betting opportunities than the Channel 4 offerings at Newmarket, and I'll be keeping my power dry at HQ.
But I will quickly run you through my thoughts there.
I think Queen Mary fifth Littlemissblakeney is probably a fair favourite in the 14:20, and the ground will be crucial to what wins the other two televised races.
William Haggas said he "kicked himself all the way down Newbury High Street" after running Battalion on fast ground last time, and if there is significant rain, then I would fancy his chances of getting back on the winning trail in 14:55.
And I imagine quite a few sets of connections of runners in the Criterion Stakes at 15:30 will be looking skywards on Saturday morning, hoping for a deluge, not least those of Top Notch Tonto.
But if I had to make a selection at this stage it would be Gabriel's Lad, an impressive Ascot handicap winner off 102 last time and at home on any ground. It is a very tricky race to call with any confidence though.
Be lucky.

Recommended Bets

Back Jack Luey @ 9.08/1 or bigger in the 14:05 at Newcastle
Back Farlow @ 10.09/1 or better in the 15:15 at Newcastle
Back Angel Gabrial @ 7.413/2 and Lucky Bridle @ 11.010/1 in the Northumberland Plate, 15:50 at Newcastle

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