Saturday Racing Tips: Lyvius and Cedre Bleu offer the real value at Ascot

Tony Calvin
16 January 2015

Tony has two picks from Ascot this Saturday

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It's all eyes on Ascot on Saturday but Tony Calvin is ignoring the race of the day in hunt of big prices in two of the other races on the card, while he has also spotted one to back at Haydock...

"I like the look of Lyvius. I thought that he was coming to win the race at Haydock last time, only to skew badly at the last, and I am going to give him another chance. He had earlier run really well when second at Aintree, soft ground isn’t a problem, the Henderson stable is in good nick, and I think he has races in him off this mark."

Back Green Flag at 9.08/1 in the 15:15 at Haydock

The Clarence House Chase, at 15:00 at Ascot, is probably one of the least attractive betting races Channel 4 will broadcast in 2015.

Don't get me wrong, Sprinter Sacre's first run since being pulled up at Kempton in December 2013 with a heart condition will make for compelling viewing and all racing fans will be tuning in.

It is just that I find it hard to believe anyone can have a strong betting opinion on the horse's chance when he is priced up at around the 10/11 mark.

Forget about the bullishness from the stable, and some opportunist bookmakers, in the immediate aftermath of his racecourse gallop with the 139-rated 12-year-old Tanks For That at Newbury last month. No-one knows how Sprinter Sacre will perform in the proper heat of a Grade 1 race, and that is what makes the contest watch-only for me.

Everyone knows that, if he is within a stone of his superlative 2013 best, then he will win this race with some ease, and more than likely go on to Champion Chase success at Cheltenham.

When I was discussing his problem with Paul Nicholls' right hand man Clifford Baker earlier in the season, he said that 85% of horses come back from these heart conditions just fine. And he should know, Ditcheat having had their fair share of horses with a similar issue down the years, not least the mighty Denman.

But, on the other hand, you hear stories from people in the unsaddling area after the horse completed his Cheltenham-Aintree-Punchestown treble in 2013 and they say they have never seen a horse shaking so much as he was after beating Sizing Europe that day.

It could be that those run of races bottomed the horse for good.

I'll be watching, and not betting, thanks, though in many ways Sprinter Sacre is the ideal Betfair two-way trading horse and the matched volumes will doubtless reflect that.

***

There are bets to be had at Ascot though and top of the list is Lyvius at odds of 7.06/1 in the 14:25.

Now, this race was a tricky one for me, as I had to discard a few favourites. I put Baradari up for the Ladbroke, only for him to be withdrawn, and Garde La Victoire and Rayvin Black have both done this column favours at double-figure odds this season.

But Baradari and Rayvin Black are unproven over the trip and are out of the handicap, and Garde La Victoire is now 10lb higher than when winning the Greatwood.

I like the look of Lyvius. I thought that he was coming to win the race at Haydock last time, only to skew badly at the last, and I am going to give him another chance.

I don't think that mistake cost him the race at all, and he was beaten the best part of nine lengths in the end. But it certainly didn't help and he had earlier run really well when second at Aintree, soft ground isn't a problem, the Henderson stable is in good nick, and I think he has races in him off this mark.

***

The handicap chase at 15:35 is a very competitive contest with a lot of in-form horses lining up, but I am going to take leave of my senses and put up that old hound - replete with hood, blinkers and a tongue tie, the full Hannibal Lecter look - Cedre Bleu at odds of 17.016/1.

Well, let's get the obvious out of the way first if you want to put in an in-running lay. Because this horse has traded at 1.132/15, 1.171/6 and 1.211/5 when beaten in the past, and has had plenty of sub 2/1 failures, too.

But I like him stepping back in trip after not lasting home over 3m1f at Wetherby last time, on a track that he likes - he has won here, though one of those heavy odds-on in-running defeats did come at this track - and off a winnable mark of 141.

Okay, he may find a way to get beaten again but if he runs to the form of his Grand Sefton second last month then I reckon Sam Waley-Cohen could just coax him home. He has won a 50k handicap, remember, and his stable are in decent form.

I quite like the look of Land Of Vic in the 13:50 as she clocked a good time when winning a Kempton mares handicap off a mark of 136 last time. And the first-time cheekpieces are interesting, too. But I just stopped short of putting her up as a selection, as I was expecting a bigger price than she is currently trading at.

***

Haydock has to pass an 8am inspection on Saturday morning and, even if it does, the Champion Hurdle Trial and Graduation Chase don't make much appeal.

But the Peter Marsh at 15:15 offers a decent opportunity for Green Flag at odds of 9.08/1.

You have to forgive him a pretty tame effort over the Grand National fences in the Becher last time but at least he has been dropped 2lb for that, having earlier made a pleasing reappearance over an inadequate trip against good horses first time up at Carlisle.

He is now 3lb lower than when a good fourth at the Cheltenham Festival - after which he was sent off co-favourite in the Scottish National - and I reckon a slog round here over 3m1f in the mud will be right up his street.

He has always been the apple of his trainer's eye, and he can begin to prove it here, weather permitting.

Best of luck.

Recommended Bets
Back Lyvius at 7.06/1 in the 14:25 at Ascot
Back Cedre Bleu at 17.016/1 in the 15:35 at Ascot
Back Green Flag at 9.08/1 in the 15:15 at Haydock