Saturday Racing Tips: Five to back at big odds from the meetings at Doncaster, Newbury and Aintree

Tony is backing Edgardo Sol on his debut for Emma Lavelle

There's good racing across the country on Saturday and Tony Calvin has a quintet of horses for you to consider... 

"Back Restorer each-way, or win and place, depending whether you use the Betfair Sportsbook or the Exchange."

Back Restorer at 10.09/1 or better in the 15:50 at Doncaster 

Deciding when all the juice has gone out of a price is often a psychological exercise, rather than a value one, and that is what we are presented with in the shape of Restorer in Doncaster's Racing Post Trophy at 15:50.
 
The 20-1 available about Restorer with Coral on Monday was clearly a steal - and, hands up, I did manage to beg, borrow and steal a few quid at that price - but the question that we have to ask ourselves now is whether he remains a backable price at odds of around 10.09/1
 
A lot of punters will, understandably, say that if I missed the 20s earlier in the week, then I am not playing at these much-reduced prices.
 
It's like failing to buy something in a sale on Monday, than being asked to pay the normal market price for it on the Friday once the offer has been withdrawn. Many people will walk away, and rue the missed opportunity.
 
But as we are entering this particular shop on Friday and I am more than happy with the price on offer, I will be pressing up. And I suggest you do, too, so back the horse each-way, or win and place, depending whether you use the Betfair Sportsbook or the Exchange.
 
Because the ground at Doncaster today looked pretty testing to me, and that is very much in our favour.
 
You can pick holes in the opposition at the top-end of the market. Elm Park is clearly the likeliest winner but he looks far too short in the betting at around 15-8, Celestial Path would ideally want much better ground, and who knows how good the likes of Aidan O'Brien pair of Jacobean and Aloft are. I'm not paying to find out, either, at the available prices.
 
The supplemented Restorer looks certain to run his race and I am surprised that he is still available at around 9-1 in a very winnable contest. It could be that the market is skewed against Willie Muir winning a Group 1 race, but that doesn't deter me one bit. Muir is having a good season, and he banged in a couple of winners at the start of the week, too.
 
And his horse doesn't have much to find on form. 
 
He showed he handled the soft when winning on his debut, was apparently unsuited by the track and surface when beaten by a subsequent Group 3 winner at Kempton next time and then ran a race full of promise when second in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket a fortnight ago.
 
The course and relatively quick ground may not have been ideal at Newmarket, but he did really well to finish a length second to Breeders' Cup entry Commemorative considering he came widest and from off the pace, and I think that he has a big run in him on this easier ground in one of the weaker Group 1s you will see. 
 
Kashmir Peak looks worth chancing at odds of 15.014/1 in the 14:40.
 
The horse was returning from a 10-week absence at York earlier in the month, and I thought he shaped well in seventh there, considering the finish was fought out on the other side of the track.
 
He will hopefully be sharper for that run and has been dropped 1lb for it, so he is now on a 4lb lower mark than when only beaten a head by a very progressive horse in this race last year.
 
He won here over hurdles too, and goes well with dig in the ground, so hopefully a big run awaits
 
I am going to have a small-stakes punt on Confessional too at odds of 15.014/1 in the 15:15 and hope that a draw in stall one doesn't prove his undoing.
 
He is a bit hit-and-miss and hasn't won for a while but he goes well with cut in the ground and a reproduction of his Great St Wilfrid third, or his second to a very handicapped horses in Duke Of Firenze at Catterick last time, should see him very competitive here.
 
Over at Newbury, the Horris Hill at 13:50 looks very tricky - though Mukhayyam is rated a better horse than he showed at Newmarket last time - and I am more than happy to sit that race out.
 
In fact, the C4 races at Newbury aren't that appealing - luckily, I didn't spot that our old friend Burano is running in the 15:30, so I've dodged a bullet there - but I can see Battalion getting his head in front in the 14:20.
  
The fact that he hung badly at Kempton last time is a worry and he clearly has been a difficult horse to train, but the bare form of his third there gives him an excellent chance in this and this horse revels in soft ground.
 
In fact, it will be disappointing if he can't see off this opposition in these conditions - and presumably William Haggas feels the cheekpieces will keep him on the straight and narrow here - and he rates a fair bet at 7.06/1 or bigger.
 
There are a cracking couple of C4 races from Aintree, and I was very nearly tempted in by Eagle Rock in the opener at 14:00, as he won the Flat in the summer and returns to hurdling on a very fair mark. I couldn't put you off him at decent double-figure odds.
 
But my sole play at Aintree is Edgardo Sol in the 15:00 at odds of 15.014/1 and bigger on his first start for Emma Lavelle.
 
Lavelle has her string in good form and she could have inherited a fairly handicapped horse from Paul Nicholls, and hopefully one that will have been sweetened up by a change of scenery. 
 
Edgardo Sol is 5lb lower than when disappointing in this race last year but he has gone well here in the past - indeed he put up a career-best when winning a handicap at the Grand National meeting here two years - and if the ground stays on the good side, then I think he can outrun his odds, especially as Lavelle has presumably been working on his occasionally suspect jumping. Module looks the one to beat.
 
 
Recommended Bets  
Back Restorer at 10.09/1 or better in the 15:50 at Doncaster 
Back Kashmir Peak at odds of 15.014/1 or better in the 14:40 at Doncaster 
Back Confessional at odds of 15.014/1 or better in the 15:15 at Doncaster 
Back Battalion at odds of 7.06/1 or bigger in the 14:20 at Newbury 
Back Edgardo Sol at 15.014/1 or bigger in the 15:00 at Aintree 

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