Tony Calvin is always on the hunt for big prices on the big days of racing and his aim has been true in recent weeks with two of his last five bets going in at BSPs of 8.13 and 5.69/2. Here are his thoughts on Saturday at Newmarket and Goodwood...
"Track, trip and ground look ideal for Burano and he is my bet of the day."
a href="http://www.btfr.co/113952247" target="_blank">Back Burano @ 15.014/1 or better in the 14:05 at Newmarket
Racing is certainly not Euro-sceptic and willingly opens its door to all and sundry from the continent - witness a rare Spanish runner in Noozhoh Canarias in the 2,000 Guineas - so Farraaj would be a topical winner of the 14:05 at Newmarket.
And that is no cheap and contrived intro either - well, ok, it is - but the Roger Varian five-year-old is very well-handicapped on his juvenile best and ran a good race on his comeback at Lingfield.
But this is a very competitive race where I was also drawn to Circumvent and Two For Two. Until I saw Burano in the line-up, that is, and there endeth my search for the winner. Back him at odds of 15.014/1 or better.
He probably ran his best race last season when fourth in the Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown and he returned from a spell in Dubai to run the most eye-catching of races in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time.
He was continually denied a run in the closing stages, with his rider holding on to a lot of horse, and I reckon that he would have gone close to winning had he obtained a clear run. Go and take a look at the video, and you will be convinced by his claims at the price, too.
Backing unlucky horses is not really my style but it certainly is when that run looks to have gone largely un-noticed by the market, and the handicapper has actually reacted by dropping him 2lb, which is completely baffling. Track, trip and ground look ideal, too, and he is my bet of the day.
I was toying with siding with the outsider Iptisam in the Palace House Stakes at 14:40, as he has been running well on the all-weather, has turf form, and I think the market has underestimated an improving horse.
But he does have the best part of a stone to find with a peak-form Sole Power - and there are plenty of other dangers in here too - so I will sit this race out.
The same is also true of the Jockey Club Stakes at 15:10, where I think Trading Leather looks a very solid favourite, but I am going to play in the big one and side with War Command at odds of 10.09/1 in the 2,000 Guineas at 15:50.
Backing supposed second-string horses doesn't bother me, and you only have to look at the 2002 Guineas, when 9-1 Rock of Gibraltar beat his 6-4 Ballydoyle stablemate Hawk Wing, to show that sparkling homework doesn't always translate to the track.
So although apparently all the "right faces" have been backing Australia - a hollow claim surely, as I wouldn't have thought the "right faces" would have been able to get too much on these days, do you? - I prefer to side with public form rather than private gallops, even though he is considered the real deal at home.
And War Command brings the best form to the party in the Guineas in my opinion, Kingman's Greenham win included.
To put it simply, he is a six-length Coventry winner who went on to win a Dewhurst, is therefore proven on the course, won't mind the expected good ground - though he will like it to quicken up as the race nears - and he is fancied to give Ryan Moore his first 2,000 Guineas success.
Over at Goodwood, I think Waila will take a lot of beating the 14:20 with the hood back on after her Ascot disappointment. Apparently, she doesn't do a lot at home but if she returns to the form of her Newmarket romp last season then this race looks very winnable.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing her, but I personally prefer to go looking for bigger-priced plays, and George Guru will be trading at far greater odds in the next at 14:55.
He may be 11lb higher than when winning this race last year, but his turf mark is still 4lb lower than his all-weather rating, and he has been running really well at Lingfield recently.
He just looks very solid and rates a bet at 8.07/1 or bigger in an admittedly trappy little eight-runner race.
Back Burano @ 15.014/1 or better in the 14:05 at Newmarket
Back War Command @ 10.09/1 in the 2,000 Guineas
Back George Guru @ 8.07/1 or better in the 14:55 at Goodwood