I imagine I will get slaughtered by some on Twitter for this - though criticism has never bothered me, in fact I quite enjoy it - but I am going to put up three win-only bets in the Betfair Hurdle at 15:35.
Trust me, it would have been four if Renneti had been declared yesterday morning.
Some may think that is something of a joke in a 16-runner race but, then again, they may be the same people who are happy to unload on an odds-on poke. And at the guide prices, we are betting at a combined 10/1 or so, so I think it is more than fair enough to go at it three-handed.
Elliott has a contender but be sure to put up an in-play lay
The main tip is Veinard, who is an ideal back-to-lay recommendation so powerful does he travel through his races. Back him at 14.013/1 and look to lay off your stake only at around 2/1. You may want to go lower but I suggest going in at 3.052/1 given I imagine plenty will be doing the same.
He is a much-improved horse since joining Gordon Elliott from Robert Bewley and his most striking aspect is how strongly he tanks through his races.
He won on his second start for Elliott over an extended 2m3f at Clonmel in November but in his four starts since he has promised more than he has delivered after coming there swinging on the bridle, being defeated after trading at 1.222/9, 1.51/2 and 2.166/5 in three of those starts.
And that is not the first time he has traded short and been chinned. Indeed he went 1.282/7 and 1.331/3 in the run on two UK starts and didn't get the job done.
But perhaps we are being a bit too hard on the horse.
For example, there was absolutely nothing wrong with his attitude in a narrow second in a 20-runner Leopardstown handicap hurdle over Christmas, where he was produced to win the race and looked to have it in the bag before Ruby Walsh conjured a flying late run from the progressive That's A Wrap to nail him on the line.
His subsequent two runs have not quite matched up to that level but a look at his effort last time again confirms just how well he goes through his races, and he didn't get a lot of time to pick up behind a wall of horses after the last there, yet was beaten under three lengths.
He is proven over further and in heavy ground and I can see Jack Kennedy coming there pulling a bus after the last, at which point your in-running bet should have been matched.
If he gets the job done thereafter we will see - and it doesn't help that the UK handicapper has added 3lb to his Irish mark, as is his wont these days - but I think he will run a huge race.
It was annoying to see all the 16s disappear on Thursday afternoon - and he was 25/1 on Wednesday morning when not a certain runner - but it would be no surprise were he still a big punt come Saturday afternoon, and ended up in single figures. I think he should be that now, especially with the trading angle factored in.
Ballyhill a nice bet to repeat Ginge's win
The reason that I am putting up three bets in the race is that, while the claims of Clyne, Movewiththetimes, Ballyandy et al are all solid and predictable, the prices of those market-leaders are all plenty short enough for me and present some excellent betting opportunities further down the list.
And, with no guaranteed front-runners - maybe Clyne and Ballyandy will go forward - I hope my two bigger-priced fancies take the race by the scruff of the neck and race prominently.
The first is Ballyhill - watch your bets, as I don't want you backing a favourite - who I think is crying out for forcing tactics over 2m.
He hasn't cut much ice in his last two starts at Kempton and when ridden more conservatively at Warwick last time - incidentally, stablemate Splash Of Ginge was also held up in the Warwick race before pretty much making all to win this contest in 2014, under 7lb claimer Ryan Hatch - but I think a switch of tactics over this 2m trip is what is needed.
He has won over 2m5f and looks a grinder to me, and he is well-weighted on his Cheltenham fourth to Pingshou, form that is working out very well, where 7lb claimer Tom Humphries rode him and he resumes duties here. The jockey is five from 22 this season for a 23 per cent strike rate.
The winner of that Cheltenham race probably didn't run badly when fourth next time - he ran under a 10lb penalty - and the rest of that form is very solid, too.
Of the others, the runner-up William Henry finished an excellent second to Wholestone on Trials day at Cheltenham; the third hasn't run since; the fifth Poetic Rhythm was third in that Wholestone race; the sixth Gaitway won at Musselburgh; the eighth Brio Conti hosed up at Doncaster; and the ninth Midnight Maestro was only just run out of it by a fair sort at Wincanton last week.
Off a mark of 136, Ballyhill is weighted to go well.
Forcing tactics could see Boite figure
My other fancy Boite is also ridden by a 7lb claimer, and he doesn't have an obvious chance at the weights, having disappointed when stepped up to 2m4f here last time off this mark - where the trip should have suited given his form on the level - and 7lb higher than when winning a lesser contest at Wetherby.
But this 95-rated stayer on the Flat often did well with forcing tactics in that sphere and I think bowing along in front back to 2m will suit him, too. It will also make things tactically easier for his inexperienced rider.
The application of first-time cheekpieces is interesting - the trainer is one from eight with these in the past year, and the horse has never been tried in any headgear before - and I was so impressed with him at Wetherby last time that I have to back him at these prices.
Back Ballyhill at 40.039/1 and Boite at 48.047/1 or bigger.
Thoughts on the rest of the card...
Bets elsewhere on the ITV races are thin on the ground and I couldn't think of a more obvious race to watch rather than bet than the Betfair Denman Chase at 14:25 - I really don't have an opinion at the prices, but I would side with Native River - and the Betfair Exchange Chase at 15:00 isn't that much more attractive from an unloading perspective.
Fox Norton has been second favourite for the Champion Chase ever since his impressive Shloer win in November but he has been off the track since with a nasty cut and has to give Altior 5lb and Traffic Fluide 10lb.
On what will be very testing ground I may end up laying Altior on what is obviously his stiffest task yet at around the 4/6 mark, but I'll keep my powder dry.
The Betfair Cash Out Hurdle at 13:50 has some obvious progressive types at the top of the market but is has cut a fair bit and I can't see any edge. I was going to give the moody Rolling Maul a betting spin to try and make all, but I can't get excited by the race.
There are also three ITV races at Warwick but the fields have really cut up there, too. I was half-tempted by Activial in the 2m4f handicap chase as I think he is very fairly-handicapped and the return to a left-handed track will really suit him.
But six-runner fields rarely offer good betting opportunities, so all our eggs are in the one Betfair Hurdle basket!
Back Veinard @ 14.013/1 in the 15:35 at Newbury, and put in an in-running lay at 3.052/1.
Back Ballyhill @ 40.039/1 in the 15:35 at Newbury
Back Boite @ 48.047/1 in the 15:35 at Newbury