Saturday Racing Tips: Back Music Master to play the winning tune at Newbury

Tony Calvin
18 July 2014

Tony has a couple of picks from the televised card at Newbury

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Looking to continue his fine recent tipping form, Tony Calvin casts his eye over the Channel 4 races at Newbury and Newmarket on Saturday and also picks out a value bet for the Irish Oaks...

"I fancy Music Master to blow the opposition away in the Hackwood Stakes. It is not really my usual MO to tip at the current price of around 4/1, but I’ll be surprised – and a bloody lot poorer – if he is beaten. Back him him at odds of 5.04/1 or bigger – he would be a lot shorter in my book."

There is nothing like a sustained dry spell to enable punters to bet with confidence on guaranteed fast ground - unless over-eager clerks decide to get busy - so it was something of a hammer blow to read of thunderstorms and flash floods expected around the country on Saturday.

So those backing horses that need, or prefer, firm ground are taking a risk if they are playing hours in advance.

But I have wasted too much time worrying about the 'Great Inaccuracy' that are weather forecasts - I don't recall being pre-warned of Thursday night's thunderstorms in London, and I woke up on Friday to rain and cloud, not scorching heat - so I am going to plough on regardless and assume it is decent ground at the Channel 4 Saturday tracks at Newbury and Newmarket.

Newbury 15:15 - Music Master

I'll deal with Newbury first as I fancy Music Master to blow the opposition away in the Hackwood Stakes.

It is not really my usual MO to tip at the current price of around 4/1, but I'll be surprised - and a bloody lot poorer - if he is beaten. Back him him at odds of 5.04/1 or bigger - he would be a lot shorter in my book.

It is a view that no-one will probably agree with, but I thought that he shaped like pretty much the best horse in the race when fourth to Slade Power in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee last time.

Cue chucking all round, but I think that Music Master ran a career-best at Ascot despite everything going wrong for him.

Firstly, he was detached from the pace on the far side, got no cover, and then Fergus Sweeney felt the need to go far too early there to play catch-up.

The way to ride this strong-traveller is to be brave and sit tight until unleashing his telling turn of foot in the final 100 yards or so, and certainly not just after the 2f marker, as he did at Ascot.

This is obviously no gimme - and there are higher-rated horses than him in here - but I'd be fairly confident that he is the most talented, and will be betting accordingly.

Rain would lessen confidence but it was on the easy side when he was second to July Cup runner-up Tropics at Ascot last season, so it wouldn't be disastrous.

The presence of Al Kazeem in the 14:40 makes for a fascinating betting heat, as the Group 1 top-notcher returns to racing action after - as Del Boy would say - proving a 'Jaffa' at stud.

I can't play in the race as a result - he could be 10lb off his best and still win this - and the Weatherbys Super Sprint at 15:50 isn't really my cup of tea either, though if pushed Haxby and Harry's Dancer would be my two against the favourite Tiggy Wiggy.

Newbury 14:05 - Kosika

If Aertex or Provenance had come here straight from their penultimate starts they would be dominating the market in the 14:05.

The impeccably-bred Provenance looked a potential Group horse when winning on her debut at Kempton and Aertex beat Token Of Love by three quarters of a length over 7f in May and is now 6lb better off with the runner-up a subsequent Newmarket winner.

It is whether their inflated prices compensate for their below-par runs last time. On balance, and at the prices, I am not sure, so I am going to side with the improving Kosika at odds of 9.08/1 or better.

This front-runner showed a tenacious attitude to get home over 7f at Epsom last time, particularly meritorious as she was drawn widest, and I think the step back up to 1m can see her offset a 5lb rise in the weights for that win.

The winning jockey on her at Epsom would disagree - Silvestre De Sousa said "she has speed to burn and she wouldn´t want to go any further" - but a four-length win over 1m at Bath in May suggests otherwise.

And what do jockeys know anyway? They are not even allowed to bet...

Newmarket 13:50 - Prince Johanne

Over at Newmarket, I think Astonishing could well bounce back to form in the 14:25 if the rain stays away, but I am siding with Prince of Johanne in the opener at odds of 15.014/1 or bigger.

He is getting on as an eight-year-old but he ran creditably when fifth at Sandown a fortnight ago, and the 2011 Cambridgeshire winner is set to run a big race off top weight in his favoured conditions, namely 1m on fast ground in what will be a well-run race with the likes of Busatto in the race.

Over at Market Rasen, I am happy to keep my power dry over jumps for now, thanks.

Curragh 17:45 - Tapestry

It's not on my C4 watch, but if you are having a bet on the Irish Oaks later, then I think Tapestry looks tempting.

Again, an eye on the weather is crucial, as the current good-to-firm ground may not suit some of the runners, including Marvellous.

But if it remains fast that should be fine for Tapestry, who really caught the eye in the Coronation Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot, and this Galileo filly is very interesting stepped right up to 1m4f. Odds of around 9.08/1 look fair to me.

Recommended Bets

Back Prince Johanne in 13:50 at Newmarket at 15.014/1 or better
Back Kosika in the 14:05 at Newbury at 9.08/1 or better
Back Music Master in the 15:15 at Newbury at 5.04/1 or better
Back Tapestry in the Irish Oaks at 17:45 at 9.08/1 or better