Saturday Racing Tips: Back Molly to beat the jolly at Newbury

Tony's bet of the day comes from Newbury
Tony's bet of the day comes from Newbury

There is a very decent looking set of televised cards to enjoy on Saturday afternoon and big price tipster Tony Calvin has picked out a number of good value shouts, including a 39/1 bet of the day...

Recommended Bets

Back Ulck Du Lin in the 14:20 at Newbury at 10.09/1 or better

Back Ladies Are Forever in the 14:40 at Lingfield at 6.05/1 or better

Back Molly's A Diva in the 14:55 at Newbury at 40.039/1 or better

Back Aussie Reigns in the 15:50 at Lingfield at 44.043/1 or better


Lingfield 15:50 - Aussie Reigns

Aussie Reigns looks well worth an interest at odds of 44.043/1 or better in Lingfield's Winter Derby. 
 
Grandeur will take plenty of beating and a price of around 7/4 on Betfair is pretty fair for the best horse in the race. But it does have a fair bit of depth to it though, and I was very surprised to see a few in here, notably Aussie Reigns, trading at such big odds.
 
Granted, it is an obvious concern that he has never raced around Lingfield before and only ran in Dubai three weeks ago.
 
But, Grandeur and Premio Loco aside, he is bang up with the rest on official marks, a Kempton win in November showed he is adaptable away from turf, and he ran some good races off marks in the low 100s on turf at Meydan. He is worth chancing.


Lingfield 14:40 - Ladies Are Forever

The case for Ladies Are Forever is far more straightforward. She won this race last year, ran well from a wide draw here over 6f last time, and her forcing tactics will be better suited to dropping down in trip. In short, she just looks very solid and a price of 6.05/1 or better is very fair.
 
I was going to give Alutiq a spin in the 15:15, but she is unproven over this 7f trip and it is a very competitive race, so I'll reluctantly pass.
 
I can also see The Panama Kid bouncing back to form after a poor run last time in the 14:00 at Kelso, but for my other bets I am going to Newbury.


Newbury 14:20 - Ulck Du Lin 
 
And, as stupid as it may sound, I am going to give Ulck Du Lin one more chance in the 14:20. I appreciate that he has shown precious little this season, but he has dropped 17lb in the weights as a result, and it is interesting that Paul Nicholls has finally reached for the blinkers for this frustrating sort.
 
He is a heavy ground winner but it could just be that toiling away in desperate ground has soured him in recent starts, so a return to better going could just help him spark, too., And it was bordering on good ground when he won here two seasons ago, so he is not just a mudlark.
 
Back him at odds of 10.09/1 or better.


14:55 Newbury - Molly's A Diva

I was tempted by Bertie Boru in the staying handicap chase at 15:30 but for my fourth and final bet on the day I am suggesting a punt on Molly's A Diva even though she is 8lb out of the handicap.
 
She rates a bet at 40.039/1 or better - and in fact rates my best value punt of the day at the price.
 
She disappointed over 3m in the soft at Ludlow last time, but the angle with her is a first-time visor, better ground and the step down in trip, as she was travelling really well before her stamina ran out at Ludlow.
 
There are obvious negatives, as there always are at these prices, but it is also worth remembering what a good bumper horse she was - if she managed to translate that form to hurdles she would win this - and I can see her outrunning her odds, big style.


Recommended Bets
Back Ulck Du Lin in the 14:20 at Newbury at 10.09/1 or better
Back Ladies Are Forever in the 14:40 at Lingfield at 6.05/1 or better
Back Molly's A Diva in the 14:55 at Newbury at 40.039/1 or better
Back Aussie Reigns in the 15:50 at Lingfield at 44.043/1 or better

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