Saturday Racing Tips: Back Astaire to dance to victory in the July Cup

Tony Calvin
12 July 2014

Kevin Ryan's Astaire is fancied to go well in the July Cup

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Tony Calvin's sensational form continued yesterday with both his recommended wagers winning including 33/1 shot Deeds Not Words who won at a Betfair Starting Price of almost 52.0. Our man fancies three at nice prices in today's Channel 4 races...

Recommended Bets

Back Bronze Angel @ 9.08/1 York 13:40

Back Red Avenger @ 15.5 York 14:55

Back Loving Spirit @ 17.5 Newmarket 15:15

Back Astaire @ 23.022/1 Newmarket 15:50

I have been racking my brains for ages this morning trying to come up with a witty Bob Marley intro to accompany my assessment of Waila in the 14:20 at York, but I am stumped, so I will crack on and leave you waiting in vain no longer.

Sorry.

I won't be putting her up as a tip, as she has shortened a bit too much for my liking, but I couldn't put anyone off backing her as she has been the recipient of the kindest piece of handicapping in a long while.

Admittedly, she hasn't gone on from her 10 length win a 1m4f listed race at Newmarket last season but there was nothing wrong with her ½ length second to Freedom's Light at Pontefract last time, yet the handicapper has dropped her 5lb.

With the step up to 1m6f looking sure to suit, I think she will take the world of beating but, at around 2.962/1 to back, I can let her pass.

I am going to side with one near the top of the market in the opener at York, though, in the shape of Bronze Angel. Back him at odds of 9.28/1 in the 13:40.

You can't help feeling that he was the best horse in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, and I am sure Martin Dwyer would have sat and waited a lot longer had he the chance to ride the race again.

But his fourth there still wasn't a bad effort, and 1m on fast ground suits him well. What seals the deal is the form of the Marcus Tregoning yard, with five winners from just 13 runners in the last fortnight.

Forgive Red Avenger his run at Ascot last time and he is a big price at 15.5 in the John Smith's Cup at 14:55. A reproduction of his third to Abseil at Epsom off the same mark would put him in with a major shout here.

Highland Knight in the 14:30 came closest to being a bet in the two Channel 4 races at Ascot, but for my other punting action on the day it is over to Newmarket.

The July Cup offers Slade Power the chance to prove he is the best sprinter around by backing up his Diamond Jubilee success and he acts on soft ground, even if his trainer says he doesn't really want it.

He is the form choice, but is not a good thing by any means. And while a few horses have shortened in the betting due to the rain one that seems to have been missed is surely Kevin Ryan's Astaire.

Looking at his rather laboured effort behind Slade Power at Ascot you have to say he has it to do to make an impact against him just a few weeks later, but that came on very fast ground and, while he handles it, his best form is undoubtedly with cut, as is the case with his shorter-priced stablemate Hot Streak.

However, unlike Hot Streak, Astaire is very much a 6f performer and he holds a verdict over him from his victory in the Group 1 Middle Park on the Rowley Mile course last October.

That came on the back of his soft-ground success in the Gimcrack at York and his only other run on a soft surface saw him pull well clear but go down by half a length to Maarek in the Duke of York in May.

He clearly has the form to be competitive when conditions are right, so looks worth backing at 23.022/1 in the big race of the day.

In the Bunbury Cup at 15:15, I can't resist throwing a few quid at Loving Spirit at odds of 17.5.

He hasn't won since his debut effort, so many will class him as a serial loser - which he is! - but he has slipped to a very attractive mark and a reproduction of any number of his big-field 7f handicap form would see him on the premises again today.

Recommended Bets

Back Bronze Angel @ 9.08/1 York 13:40
Back Red Avenger @ 15.5 York 14:55
Back Loving Spirit @ 17.5 Newmarket 15:15
Back Astaire @ 23.022/1 Newmarket 15:50