ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday Racing Tips: Alternative Fact too big to ignore in the Cambridgeshire

horse racing
Can Alternative Fact show up in the Cambridgeshire?

"This is a horse who travels really well into his races when on song – be it that run over 1m at Sandown, or over 1m4f behind Communique at Newbury last season – and I can see this 4yo travelling powerfully into this contest from stall six"

Tony Calvin is back with a trio of tips, including a big one at 85.084/1, for Saturday's racing at Haydock and Newmarket...

Would have preferred more rain

I stuck up Bedouin's Story at 25/1 and upwards on Tuesday's ante-post column for the Cambridgeshire at 15:40, and I am very happy with the position.

Saying that, I was working on the basis of at least soft-ish ground, and it initially looked like we could have been dealing with conditions that threatened towards to the fast side after a drying couple of days.

Who would have thought the weather forecasters would have got it wrong, eh?

To be fair, it did look pretty damp at Newmarket on ITV when I was writing this at 2.30pm on Friday afternoon.

Even so, I would have definitely have preferred even more rain for the Godolphin 4yo, who was so impressive in first-time cheek pieces in the soft at York and unlucky from a poor position after a slow start at Chelmsford last time, but no way am I deserting him now.

He is a 5-length winner on firm ground after all, and the step up to 1m1f really should suit him, being out of a 1m4f scorer and a half-brother to a couple that hit the mark over 1m3f.

I like his chances, all right, and he is still eminently backable at 16/1+ on the exchange.

I would have also put up Jazeel earlier in the week were it not for the aforementioned soggy prospects, and connections will be hoping that the unsettled conditions on Friday don't deliver any more meaningful rainfall in the next 24 hours.

Jazeel 956.jpg

Last year's Silver Cambridgeshire winner has an obvious chance on a decent surface and he was undoubtedly tempting at 14/1+.

Take on the price with facts

I don't have any problems with the price of the other market leaders either, but I have to take a flier with Alternative Fact at 85.084/1 or bigger.

He clearly doesn't have the sexy unexposed profile of a Lord North or Le Don De Vie, but he undoubtedly has a better chance than that price indicates.

He was second to Danceteria off a 9lb higher mark on the July course last summer, and he was a very good third over 1m at Sandown in June.

This is a horse who travels really well into his races when on song - be it that run over 1m at Sandown, or over 1m4f behind Communique at Newbury last season - and I can see this 4yo travelling powerfully into this contest from stall six, with pace around him, and outrunning his odds if the ground does ride to good to soft on Saturday afternoon.

It is just as well that I put a second string to my bow there as these dreaded 2yo races take centre stage at Newmarket on Saturday.

Me looky but no likey.

Kameko looks a very solid favourite in the Royal Lodge, and is perhaps a more appealing betting proposition at a similar price than Raffle Prize in the Cheveley Park, and the red-hot Middle Park leaves me cold.

Sure, I could rabbit on about those three Group contests, but I tip how I bet - it is the only way to play this game and I can't deviate - and I won't bet getting involved myself.

Making it easy for bettors

We aren't guessing with the ground at Haydock, where it is heavy. All day long.

Having visited the track numerous times in recent years, I have never known it any different, but it was something altogether on another level when racing got abandoned midway through racing on Friday afternoon.

That at least makes it very easy for punters, if we do get the go-ahead on Saturday - and bookmakers too, probably - and I like Mikmak at 13/2 each way, with the Betfair Sportsbook, in the 14:05.

He is 1lb out of the handicap and didn't run too cleverly at Carlisle last time.

But he is a course-and--distance winner on heavy ground, who finished a neck second on his only other start at the track, and he is a tactically-versatile horse who should go well for a stable who continue to bang out the winners.

There is also a 5f handicap at 15:15, and I am surprised that I can back Camacho Chief at 9/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He has run three solid races since winning in the soft at Doncaster in June, and has come down to just a 2lb higher mark for that win after the handicapper has showed some generous leniency.

He has good course form on heavy and he just looks a very solid proposition.

Recommended bets


New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £40 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.