Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Well-handicapped sprinter to Out Do his rivals

One of Tony's fancies runs at York on Saturday afternoon
One of Tony's fancies runs at York on Saturday afternoon

It's a high-quality day of racing on Saturday, and after bagging winners at 15.014/1 and 7.613/2 last weekend our resident tipster Tony Calvin is in confident mood as he attempts to have another profitable afternoon...


"His chance is obvious. He was a dual course and distance winner in 2015, when rated 109, and he has slipped down to a mark of 99 after a series of lack-lustre efforts at the end of last season."

Back Out Do at 8.415/2 or bigger in the 15:50 at York

Given the vast array of attractive racing on offer on Saturday - it is one of those silly days with racing from four top tracks, as well as Classic action in Ireland - I better stick firmly to my terrestrial brief this weekend.

Well, not exactly, so let's get that selection out of the way first.

Back Lancaster Bomber win and place at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 respectively - or 10-1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook - to down his illustrious stablemate Churchill in the Irish 2,000 Guineas at 16:10 at the Curragh.

It may seem folly to go against the favourite, and indeed do so each-way in a six-runner race, but I am convinced he is at least the second best horse going into the race.

"At least", I hear you chunter.

Yes, I know he is 4-0 down to Churchill, and finished 2 lengths behind Thunder Snow when a strong-finishing fourth over an extended 1m1f in the UAE Derby, but I still reckon we haven't seen the best of this horse.

Again, some may think that it is a strange thing to say given he is more exposed than most - certainly more than the second favourite, Irishcorrespondent, who I can't have at the price - but his last four runs have suggested to me that this is a Group 1 winner in waiting from whom there is plenty to come.

In fact, I would have been tempted to let him take his chance in the Derby, as he has looked a horse to me as if crying out for at least 1m2f, for all he is a War Front whose pedigree doesn't suggest 1m4f is a viable option. Perhaps he is more of an Eclipse, type.

But there is no doubting he has the pace to make his presence felt over a mile in the top grade, as he showed when a 1 ½ length fourth to Churchill in the 2,000 Guineas last time.

He could have had far more use made of him at Newmarket and perhaps been ridden more aggressively - look at his Meydan run, or his 1¼ length second to his stablemate in the Dewhurst where he was coming back for more after being headed, and had Blue Point, Thunder Snow and Rivet trailing in his wake - and I have no doubt that he will excel given as full a test of stamina over a mile at possible.

If he is gunned out hard from the front - and it may not happen, as there could be a wider picture here - I reckon he will finish second at worst and could even perhaps draw the sting out of Churchill. He looks the only pace angle of the six, too, so his fate is in his own hands.

Given the distances that have separated them on their last two meetings, and the rides involved and the current prices, then my money is going only one way.


***


If you think I am taking leave of my senses there, then I am not sure what you are going to make of my putting up that old rogue Suegioo at 15.014/1 or bigger in Haydock's 14:20.

He has normally doubled in price by the time he has gone a furlong and that may be the case again, but there are three of four usual front-runners in here, so he will hopefully get a strong pace to aim at after his customary lazy start.

He ran a typical "Suegioo" race when staying on late to finish in midfield, beaten just 6½ lengths in the Chester Cup, last time and he has come down a further 2lb to a mark of just 100.

That is the lowest rating he has raced off since finishing fourth in this race two seasons ago and, with trip and ground to suit (he also won't mind it if the forecast Saturday rain does arrive), here is hoping the 8yo can mount a late charge to net his first win since the 2014 Chester Cup.


***


I really should have an opinion in the Silver Bowl at 14:55 but I don't. I think the 1m Doncaster handicap in which Mustarrid was just touched off by City Of Joy last time is very strong form, and he can still be competitive off a 4lb higher mark, but nothing screams out at me as a bet, sorry.

Harry Angel is the predictable short-priced favourite in the Sandy Lane at 15:30 after his excellent second to Blue Point under a 4lb penalty on his Ascot return, where Mubtasim also shaped very nicely in third.

But I wouldn't be in a rush to take too short a price about him myself, as he has at least three credible rivals, arguably the most interesting of which is the filly Poet's Vanity. She has never raced over 6f before but she certainly looks worth a try over it after a non-staying seventh in the 1,000 Guineas.

She races prominently and travels well into her races and could be the bet here at around 10/1 - it wouldn't surprise me were she to get an easy lead, though Alphabet has also gone forward in the past - and on balance I think she is worth chancing at 15.014/1 or bigger. Be warned though - she could be taken off her feet against these proven sprinters.

The Temple Stakes at 16:05 baffled me.

I struggle to make head nor tail of these Group-race sprints at the best of times, and this is no exception.

Maybe dual Group 1 winner Goldream at around 9/1 after his back-to-form run at Newmarket last time but he could run well and finish fifth, as could all of these. And he certainly wouldn't like it if Haydock did get saturated on Saturday.


***


There is a good £45k handicap at Chester that doesn't even make it on to ITV - that is a cracker which features impressive Victoria Cup winner Fastnet Tempest among others - but two races at Goodwood do.

I don't have a betting opinion in the opening 1m2f Listed race, but the 7f 3yo handicap at 15:10 is a fascinating heat.

As I mentioned earlier, I think the Doncaster handicap won by City Of Joy is strong form and so do the layers it seems, as the third horse there, Bless Him, is disputing favouritism here despite racing from 5lb out of the handicap. He is effectively 7lb higher than at Donny.

But he travelled into that race like a very good horse, the step down to 7f should suit him okay, and the key to him winning this could be him settling better rather than the weight. He wears a hood here, and David Simcock is a very fair 5 from 24 when using this headgear for the first time since 2012.

I suspect he will go close if proving more tractable but the price is just a touch too off-putting (currently trading around 6/1 at the time of writing) in a race of this competitive nature.

The reason why he is out of the weights is because the Guineas seventh Top Score has stood his ground off a mark of 110, and he could easily win off it, too, as he actually shaped better than his beaten distance there, and it was less than 4 lengths, as it was. He ran a blinder.

He did really well from off the pace there, showing a good burst of speed to get into contention at one stage, and the step down a furlong shouldn't be an issue on that evidence. The likes of Horroob and Hyde Park are other likely lads, too, in this contest.

I think Bless Him will be a big player in this race if the hood eradicates his keenness, but the current price dictates that I let him run unbacked, or rather untipped. If he drifts then consider backing him, though.


***


Only one of the two ITV races at York interests me and that is the sprint at 15:50.

I hate to be obvious, especially in 19-runner sprint handicaps, but Out Do does stand out at 8.415/2 or bigger.

His chance is obvious. He was a dual course and distance winner in 2015, when rated 109, and he has slipped down to a mark of 99 after a series of lack-lustre efforts at the end of last season.

But he ran much better when third on his return at Ripon, and he must acquit himself well here if the rain stays away, having been pulled out here last week due to the wet weather. He has early pace drawn right next to him in Copper Knight and Caspian Prince, so this hold-up horse has a good set-up to get towed into the race

I was not going to let Caspian Prince go unbacked at 30.029/1, until I saw that he has been declared without a hood. That leaves me to believe this could be his last tee-up before another shot at the Epsom Dash next week - a race he won last year and in 2014 - as his last three wins have come in that headgear.

However, he won at Epsom hood-less last season, and he showed all his blazing early speed from a wide draw at Chester last time (with a hood on) on his first start for yet another new trainer. He has been dropped 2lb for it, too, and you have to remember new trainers have differing ways of getting the job done, so perhaps the missing headgear is not such a big deal.

If he wins I will not be a happy bunny, but I will just side with Out Do.


Recommended Bets

Back Suegioo at 15.014/1 or better in 14:20 at Haydock
Back Poet's Vanity at 15.014/1 or bigger in 15:30 at Haydock
Back Out Do at 8.415/2 or bigger in the 15:50 at York
Back Lancaster Bomber win and place at 15.014/1 and 3.02/1 respectively, and/or 10-1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook in 16:10 at Curragh


Tony's P/L - April 14 to May 20 inc

50 sels; 48 to win; 2 to place
44 losers; 6 winners
P & L (to BSP): +2.96pts

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