Saturday Racing Tips: Outsiders can steal Night's Thunder in the Lockinge

Tony Calvin
15 May 2015

Tony fancies a pair of outsiders to go well in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury

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Newbury is the feature meeting on Saturday with the Lockinge Stakes taking centre stage, and our big-price tipster Tony Calvin doesn't fancy the favourite one bit. Here our man recommends two to take on the jolly in the big race, while a previous selection catches Tony's eye at Newmarket...

"This promises to be a real test of stamina for the milers, and that could play in Top Notch Tonto's favour, as I think he will be well worth another try over 1m2f later in the season."

There is a superb 18-runner turn-out for the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at 15:45 and just about the last horse I would back at the prices is the 3-1 favourite Night Of Thunder.

In fact, I was tempted to recommend a place lay at around the even money mark, as I think he has his work well and truly cut out first time up against some established performers and some exciting up-and-comers.

And one horse in the latter camp particularly interests me here. He may not have done it on the clock and may still be a work in progress, but I cannot resist a small tickle on Mooharib at odds of 16.015/1 on what is a tricky punting Saturday.

I had a decent bet on him at 16-1 to win the Lincoln first time up, reasoning that a mark of 100 seriously underestimated his talent. And for 7f of that race I thought that he was hacking up, only for waywardness, greenness or inexperience - call it what you will - to see him veer across the track and unable to put the race to bed in the final 1f or so.

It was therefore somewhat galling to see him absolutely hack up in a 1m listed race at Ascot last month, never coming off the bridle in beating the 109-rated Hors De Combat as he pleased, even though connections were very worried about the fast ground.

Whether he will be able to travel as powerfully as he did there in this higher grade, or find when asked to knuckle down and battle as he undoubtedly will have to against Group 1 animals, I have no idea. But at 14-1 or more, I am going to pay to find out.

I am going in two-handed in the race as no way is Top Notch Tonto a 38.037/1 poke, even in a race of this depth.

I was a little disappointed with him when he could only manage fourth to Custom Cut on rain-softened ground on his reappearance at Sandown, but I don't think the race was run to suit. Indeed, he looked like dropping away tamely before rallying again close home, so perhaps he needed it far more than I imagined he would.

Clearly, the 11mm rain that fell at the course through Thursday has helped his cause, and an official mark of only 110 is a bit of insult.

He ran to a far higher mark than that when only failing by a head to give Short Squeeze 6lb in a York handicap last season, an effort which suggest he retains all the ability that he showed when chasing home Olympic Glory in the QEII in October 2013.

This promises to be a real test of stamina for the milers, and that could play in Top Notch Tonto's favour, as I think he will be well worth another try over 1m2f later in the season.

Earlier on the card, Dubday is a fascinating contender for the day's sponsors in the 14:00 and I think it would be a mistake to underestimate his claims. He is officially the second best horse in the race, albeit one carrying a 3lb penalty. But I stopped some way short of putting him up as a bet against form horse Telescope.

My head was spinning trying to work out the ridiculously competitive listed race at 14:35 and I'll be honest, I found the 3yo handicap at 15:10 equally hard to decipher.

Azraff would be my selection if forced, but I won't be having a bet, so usual rules apply. No personal punt, no lazy recommendation.

By the way, if you fancy likely favourite Dissolution don't be put off by the fact that Ryan Moore doesn't ride again as he can't do anywhere near 8st 3lb. He has clearly let himself go...

Over at Newmarket, it will take a good one to lower the colours of Markaz in the 14:50 but it is not the price I tend to play at.

But I am going to side with a horse that I put up as a bet on 1,000 Guineas day at Newmarket earlier in the month, only for him to be withdrawn, and that is Barbican at odds of 17.016/1 in the 14:15.

I'll pretty much re-iterate what I said that day, albeit that race was over 1m4f, as opposed to today's longer trip. But he has won over 1m6f in listed company in the past, so the extra 2f here holds no fears.

He has been off the track for the best part of two years, and has clearly been a very difficult horse to train and keep sound. So connections are taking no chances with him, hence him being withdrawn at Newmarket that Sunday.

But at least we know that if he lines up today, his new trainer Don Cantillon is happy with him. And he should be confident that his horse goes into what looks a very winnable handicap with fair claims.

The horse goes well fresh - he was having his first start for a year when a good fourth on his most recent start at Ascot in July 2013 - and he can now race off a 6lb lower mark and on a course which he has run well at in the past. And Thursday's rain and watering was not a negative.

In short, he looks worth chancing on a day where bets are hard to eke out.

In the 15:25 I favour Field Game the most but not enough to have me reaching into my pocket.

Good luck.

Recommended Bets

Back Barbican at 17.016/1 in the 14:15 at Newmarket
Back Mooharib @ 16.015/1 in the 15:45 at Newbury
Back Top Notch Tonto @ 38.037/1 in the 15:45 at Newbury