Saturday Racing Tips: Take a punt on a few outsiders in season's first Classic

Tony Calvin
01 May 2015

Course and Distance winner Kool Kompany has an outsider's chance in the 2,000 Guineas

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The 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket is the highlight of Saturday's racing on Channel 4, and while Tony Calvin believes the front two in the betting could fight out the finish he is willing to take a chance on two huge outsiders who might just spring a surprise...

"You’d obviously be very surprised if he were the pick of this bunch at the end of the season – or even next month – but what we have with Kool Kompany is a race-fit horse who won his trial over course and distance on fast ground under a 3lb penalty."

Previewing the 2,000 Guineas was a real test of my betting principles.

Firstly, I have it on pretty good authority that Gleneagles carries a fair degree of stable confidence, having been primed for the race, whereas Ol' Man River is seen more of a Derby horse who they are hoping can run a big race here en route to Epsom.

And I've also heard that a certain Andre Fabre is not bringing Territories over in the expectation of going home empty-handed. And there is little doubt in my mind that he ran the best trial of any of these when winning the Fontainebleau at Longchamp last month, a performance that oozed class.

The pair could easily dominate what looks a sub-standard Guineas, going into the race at least, and if I am being honest I expect that they will. And everyone seems to be assuming their high draws are a positive, too.

But I just can't back them at odds of 4.1 and 7.413/2 respectively - Territories has been the money horse in the last 24 hours - because their odds are simply a touch too short on form grounds.

And I think we can expect several hard-luck stories in this big field, too, especially now the course has been narrowed and the stalls moved to the stands' side. So, even though a high draw may be the place to be, it is probably going be very congested near the rail, too.

At the top end of the market Greenham runner-up Estidhkaar marginally makes most appeal at around the 17-2 mark but the stand-out price has to be Kool Kompany at odds of 40.039/1.

You'd obviously be very surprised if he were the pick of this bunch at the end of the season - or even next month - but what we have with Kool Kompany is a race-fit horse who won his trial over course and distance on fast ground under a 3lb penalty.

Obviously, he got a soft lead in the Craven, but I don't think he got the credit he deserved that day and he looks over-priced.

And in a race that lacks a superstar at the time of writing, I am also going to chuck a couple of quid at Cappella Sansevero at 110.0109/1.

He has lots to prove, not least his stamina and effectiveness on fast ground, but on form he is no three-figure poke.

He hasn't been beaten far in his two attempts in Group 1 company and there is plenty of stamina on the dam side, so I think he is an outsider worth consideration in an open Guineas.

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised were Telescope turned over in the Jockey Club Stakes - I couldn't touch him at around 1-2 - but for my next bet at Newmarket I like Halation at 8.07/1 in the 14:00.

There isn't much to say here really, other that he comes here a fit and in-form horse who will love the ground, and it is interesting to see David Simcock has reached for the hood for the first time. If it ekes out any further improvement, I expect him to go very close indeed.

Goldream won the 6f handicap first time up at this meeting last year and I think he has a decet chance of making his mark in Group company this season. The problem, as ever, is his price. He does have a fair bit to find on the book and odds of around 6-1 aren't particularly enticing for the sprint at 14:30.

Over at Goodwood, Criteria would be my choice in the 14:15, but for my last bet on the C4 races I am going to take a chance on Pastoral Player at 13.012/1 in the 14:50.

He ran a good race first time up last season when sixth in the Victoria Cup and is 13lb lower now, despite the odd good effort in between.

He is handicapped to win again, and Hughie Morrison has his horses in decent nick.

Recommended Bets

Back Halation at 8.07/1 in the 14:00 at Newmarket
Back Pastoral Player at 13.012/1 in the 14:50 at Goodwood
Back Kool Kompany at 40.039/1 in the 15:45 at Newmarket
Back Cappella Sansevero at 110.0109/1 in the 15:45 at Newmarket