Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Mutawathea looks to have a solid chance at Newmarket

Simon Crisford (above) hopes Mutawathea can win on Saturday and so does Tony
Simon Crisford (above) hopes Mutawathea can win on Saturday and so does Tony
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On a busy Saturday afternoon or racing, Tony Calvin selects bets at Newmarket's July Festival, York and Ascot...

Sixties Groove is worth a bet at [8.0] or bigger in the John Smith’s Cup at 15:05. He was a progressive 3yo and he has run two massive eye-catchers since being gelded in the close-season.

With the little matter of 10 races on ITV, from three meetings, this column is going to be short and sharp. Focus on the selection in each race, make a convincing case for it - that's the plan, anyway - and quickly move on. If no betting interest, or nothing helpful to say, I'll move on.

First up is Newmarket and the main race of the day, the July Cup at 16:35 and the honest thing to do would be to say "no bet" and crack on elsewhere.

But as it's one of the races of the season, I should give it a spin. My thoughts are that Caravaggio is too short at around at the [2.1] mark and personally I will be looking to lay him at that price and have the field running for me at 10/11. But we don't tip at those prices in this column.

My reason for wanting to be the field at 10/11 is that basically you have four live horses running for you.

Harry Angel only has ¾ length to make up with the favourite on Commonwealth Cup form, and the first three home in the Diamond Jubilee - dual Group 1 winner The Tin Man, the improving Tasleet and last year's winner Limato - are all very feasible winners.

I'd be wanting 6/4 before I started to consider backing Caravaggio - and, even then, I'd probably pass.

Aidan O'Brien unleashes another potential superstar in the Superlative Stakes at 16:00, in the shape of his recent Curragh winner Gustav Klimt. He may well hack up but, at odds of around 13/8 and 7/4, I can very easily let him win without my money, thanks.

Earlier in the day, I can't get excited by much in the 14:50, but the Bunbury Cup is not going ahead without some of my money riding on it.

I was tempted by Steady Pace after a great run off a break in the Wokingham last time but I am a touch concerned about his stamina here in such a high-tempo race over an extra furlong, for all that he is a winner over this 7f trip.

No, I'm backing Mutawathea at [15.0] or bigger in the 15:25. Simon Crisford hasn't had the best of seasons but he has his string in really good nick at the moment. His recent form figures going into Friday read an impressive: 15233141323142. And the selection comes here after an excellent second at York last time.

He has gone up 2lb for it, but he is still 1lb lower than when third in this race last year, beaten just a length, and he looks a very solid 14/1 chance to me.

Get in the Groove at York

I think Tim Easterby may well win the opener at York at 13:55 but I am not sure whether I want to be with his Just Hiss, who is 5lb higher than when winning over course and distance in first-time cheekpieces in a good time, or my old mate One Word More.

One Word More returned to form at Newcastle last time and is on a very good mark at present - he is 6lb lower than when beaten a neck and ½ length in this race last season - and he has any number of good efforts at this track to his name.

I want both on my side, so back One Word More at [15.0] or bigger and Just Hiss at [15.0] or greater, too. Betfair Sportsbook offer 14/1 about the pair.

I've no interest in the 1m6f Listed race at 14:30 - Barsanti looks solid enough at just above even money - and the same is pretty much true of the 5f Listed race at 16:15. You have to be very impressed by Judicial's recent victories but he meets a better class of sprinter here.

Sixties Groove is worth a bet at [8.0] or bigger in the John Smith's Cup at 15:05. He was a progressive 3yo and he has run two massive eye-catchers since being gelded in the close-season.

He clearly found the extended 1m inadequate when staying on very nicely indeed at Epsom on his reappearance and then he was given far too much to do from off the pace when fifth in the Duke Of Edinburgh at Ascot last time.

Both of those efforts strongly suggested he has a big race in him off this mark, and it could well come here in what will hopefully be a strongly-run 1m2f handicap. I will admit the jockey booking of Gerald Mosse doesn't fill me with confidence, but if the 50-year-old Frenchman can get him into a midfield position early on and avoid trouble then he will hopefully only have to steer!

I suppose he did me a favour when guiding home Grey Britain at Newmarket in May, and he is operating at an 18 percent strike rate here this season, so maybe I am being a touch harsh.

Finally, a bet at Ascot

Over at Ascot, I think Orion's Bow is a very worthy favourite in the 100k 5f Heritage handicap at 14:10, and I actually think odds of around [7.6] are fair after his unlucky third at Newcastle last time.

He must go well but, at nearly twice the price, I have to side with the horse who finished a place ahead of him at Newcastle. Back Lexington Abbey at [14.0] or bigger.

He has gone up 6lb for three excellent recent efforts of late - the Newcastle run was his first start since April after his stable was shut down for equine herpes - but he is still only 3lb higher than when a head and a neck third to Royal Birth and Robot Boy in this race last year. He will do for me at the price.

The Group 2 Summer Mile at 15:50 is the other Ascot race on ITV and it looks at the mercy of Queen Anne runner-up Mutakayyef. I actually think 4/6 is not a bad price if you are that way inclined, but I'm not.

Have a great Saturday, and good luck.

Recommended Bets

Back One Word More at [15.0] or bigger and Just Hiss at [15.0] or greater in 13:55 at York
Back Lexington Abbey at [14.0] or bigger in 14:10 at Ascot
Back Sixties Groove at [8.0] or bigger in the 15:05 at York
Back Mutawathea at [15.0] or bigger in the 15:25 at Newmarket

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