On the fifth and final day at Royal Ascot, Tony Calvin explains why he believes Tasleet could take a lot of stopping in the big race and selects four other bets as he looks to end a profitable week on a high...
September looks too short for the opener
I'll attack the final day of Royal Ascot in chronological order and first up is the hotpot September in the Chesham at 14:30. She looks an appalling price to me at around [2.24].
Yes, she was very impressive when winning on her debut over 7f on yielding ground at Leopardstown just over a fortnight ago. And the fact that she was able to win, let alone sluice home, so convincingly could be very telling.
Aidan O'Brien simply doesn't have his juveniles revved up first time out - think the likes of Churchill - so for September to dismiss some horses with fair maiden form by 5 ½ lengths on her debut suggests she could be very smart indeed.
But the time wasn't great, it will be much faster ground today, and she meets a whole host of rivals with similar profiles.
I haven't got an opinion on what might beat her, but I do have a strong belief that she is a pretty moderate price, and is easily swerved.
If she gets any shorter than 5/4, I will probably end up laying her and look to have the field running for me at around the even money mark, but for the purposes of the column here and now it is a no-bet race.
A 40/1 dart for the Wolferton
The David Simcock-Jamie Spencer axis did us a big favour with Bless Him on Thursday and I think Majeed is worth a speculative punt at [40.0] or bigger in the Wolferton at 15:05.
Khairaat has an obvious chance and Maverick Wave was another on my radar, but I think we can expect Majeed to come on a lot from his poor comeback effort, his first run since February, at Newmarket recently.
He will need to improve, as he races off the same mark here, in a much better race, but he was in fair nick in Dubai at the turn of the year and he looks to be fairly-handicapped on his fast ground, summer form last year, and he is fully effective at this trip, although he stays further.
Indeed, he finished a good fourth on his only start here, in a 1m4f handicap in the Shergar Cup two years ago, and that stamina will stand him in good stead in what could be a bit of a burn-up. He also has one of the best speed figures in the race courtesy of his narrow second to Berkshire in a Windsor Listed race last August. He will do for me.
It could be Harraild's Dai
Dai Harraild is also well worth chancing at [21.0] or bigger in the Hardwicke at 15:40.
Yes, he lacks the confirmed class of last year's winner Dartmouth, or the likes of Idaho and Wings Of Desire, but the potential is certainly there.
He has run cracking races in his two starts at this course, both of which were over this trip, and he came back to form with a vengeance when easily winning a decent 1m6f Listed race at York last time.
That suggests there could be more to come from him and while stepping down in trip may not be ideal - his trainer was talking in Gold Cup terms after the race - the fact that this race has a much larger field than usual will hopefully mean his stamina will kick into gear in the final stages
My Dream Boat is my second play in the race at [17.0] or bigger, despite the ground probably being quicker than ideal for him. But he has form on quick ground, and that is why we are getting 16/1 and not 12/1 about him, I guess.
He enjoyed his finest moment when beating Found in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes here last season and he wasn't seen to best effect when ridden from too far off the pace in soft ground on his first attempt at 1m4f at Newbury last month.
He is tried in first-time cheekpieces here, and I expect a much- improved effort from him for a yard that have had a good week here.
Tasleet to sparkle in the Diamond Jubilee
Hopefully, William Haggas has a good Saturday as I think Tasleet is worth a small interest at [9.0] or bigger in the Diamond Jubilee at 16:20.
Limato and The Tin Man have to be feared but I was very taken by the manner of Tasleet's Duke Of York defeat of Magical Memory last time.
The trainer always thought he was a fast-ground horse but he certainly seemed to enjoy the dig in the ground at York, and maybe the first-time cheekpieces and the step back to 6f, too.
But, whatever the reason, that was a career-best by some margin and if he progresses again then he could take a lot of stopping here. I am not too worried about the quicker ground, as he has won on fast, and Ascot have done their bit on the watering front this week.
Back Eastern to have an Impact in the Wokingham
The Wokingham at 17:00 looks nigh on impossible, as per usual, but Eastern Impact is my one stab at [21.0] or bigger.
The case for him is very straightforward. He is a course and distance winner, loves fast ground, has winning form in big fields, has a touch of class (third in 2015 July Cup) and come here in great nick.
In fact, he ran too well when second to Mr Lupton at Newmarket last month, as he went up 2lb for it, but his new mark is still 9lb shy of his peak rating and he just looks very solid.
Just too many doubts about Thomas in the closer
The Queen Alexandra at 17:35 probably revolves around whether Thomas Hobson is in the same form that he was in on Tuesday, when slaughtering the Ascot Stakes field of a mark of 100.
Willie Mullins did the staying double with Simenon in 2012, but Thomas Hobson does face a very strong field with the likes of last year's Derby runner-up US Army Ranger, Qewy and Winning Story in opposition - and there are plenty of others you can give a shout, too - and I am happy to leave the race alone.
I hope you had a good week. I'm off to a wedding in the Dominican Republic on Sunday, so I'll see you in a couple of weeks.
Back Majeed at [40.0] or bigger in the 15:05
Back Dai Harraild at [21.0] or bigger in the 15:40
Back My Dream Boat at [17.0] or bigger in the 15:40
Back Tasleet at [9.0] or bigger in the 16:20
Back Eastern Impact at [21.0] or bigger in the 17:00