Newmarket July Meeting Tips: Mange All the best bet on day one

Tony Calvin
09 July 2014

It's day one at the July Meeting at Newmarket on Thursday

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Tony Calvin, fresh from tipping the first two big-priced horses home in the Eclipse on Saturday as well as 6.74 winner Velox, will be providing value picks for every day of the July meeting at Newmarket. Here are his thoughts on day one...

"William Haggas knows the true worth of his horses, and I think that he could have found his father’s lightly-raced three-year-old a winning opportunity here."

Back Mange All to win the 15:15 at Newmarket at 7.06/1 or better

The upside of having a brief to tip bigger-priced horses in Channel 4 races is that it stops you trawling through umpteen meetings trying to find an angle, though the obvious negatives are days like Newmarket on Thursday.

Three relatively small-field Group races and an 11-runner handicap featuring six last-time out winners does not particularly make fulfilling the aforementioned task that easy, but I think I have eked out a couple of decent small-stakes recommendations.

And they are not bets for the sake of it, if that is what you are thinking after that opening paragraph.

I'll deal with the two races that I couldn't find a punt in, starting off with the Princess Of Wales's Stakes at 14:40.

Sir Michael Stoute has won five of the last 10 runnings of this race, and he appears to have a stranglehold on it again this time around as he saddles the front two in the market, Arab Spring and Hillstar.

In fact, at odds of around 6/4 and 3/1 respectively, they dominate the betting, and I am not in a rush to oppose the highly-progressive Arab Spring, who did us a favour at Royal Ascot. The stable clearly have Group 1 plans for him, and have done so for a while.

But I can resist taking 6/4 about a horse stepping up to Group 2 company, albeit a weak-ish one, for the first time when he was freely available at 7/2 to win off a mark of 104 in an Ascot handicap last time.

In fact, if I was playing, I would maybe be looking at the likes of Pether's Moon or Dandino each-way at 10/1 plus, or win and place. But, in truth, the race makes little appeal to me.

And neither does, the opener at 13:40, which features five or six improving three-year-olds stepping up in trip, and thus are very hard to get a handle on.

It is interesting that John Gosden relies on his Doncaster maiden winner Forever Now, rather than his Derby third Romsdal - especially since the latter has won the last three runnings of this race - and he would be my token selection.

Newmarket 15:15 - Mange All

But my first, and best, bet on the four Channel 4 races is Mange All at odds of 7.06/1 or better in the 15:15

William Haggas is probably the best placer of a handicapper in the country - he isn't too bad in Group 1 races either - and his horses always seem to be in form.

Basically, he knows the true worth of his horses, and I think that he could have found his father's lightly-raced three-year-old a winning opportunity here.

He didn't have much more than an exercise canter when winning at 1/10 at Beverley last time but it was interesting to hear Haggas Snr say after the win that "he is quite a nice horse..he disappointed at Newbury".

He was referring to the horse's earlier third where he finished a three-length third to Connecticut over this trip at Newbury, which I thought was a good effort.

Now, if the horse disappointed them there, then we could really be in business off a mark of just 86 here.

Because the winner Connecticut won off a mark of 84 on his next start, the second, fourth and fifth have all run well in maiden company since, the sixth won off a mark of 85 last month, and the seventh won a Salisbury maiden by four lengths recently.

In short, he looks potentially well-treated on that "disappointing run" alone. So take the hint.

Newmarket 14:10 - Jungle Cat

Once-raced maiden winners Ivawood and Belardo are clearly very well-regarded but should they, and Norfolk disappointment The Great War, head the market for the July Stakes ahead of the likes of Coventry third Jungle Cat?

Not in my book, no, so snap up any odds of 7.06/1 or bigger about Mark Johnston's colt, who I think could be even better suited to this track than Ascot.

Nottingham winner Ustinov was also tempting at 30.029/1 as he looked good beating a subsequent winner last time, but Jungle Cat sets the form standard in here and is the sole bet.

But it's a day to keep stakes small, as I said.

Recommended Bets:
Back Jungle Cat to win the 14:10 at Newmarket at 7.06/1 or better
Back Mange All to win the 15:15 at Newmarket at 7.06/1 or better