Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Lots of positives for Red Galileo at HQ

Newmarket race finish
Tony has a trio of selection at Newmarket on Saturday

A bumper day of racing on ITV with nine races to be shown live, and our resident tipster Tony Calvin has half a dozen tips for you to consider...

"Factor in all the other positives - and his jockey Adam Kirby has a 26% strike rate for the stable, too - and I can see him running a huge race."

Back Red Galileo at 17.016/1 or bigger in 14:45 at Newmarket

There is a fair bit of rain due everywhere on Friday and well into Saturday, and that is never an enticing prospect for punters.

And I imagine Newmarket will be a touch concerned, as the forecast for the track has got a bit wetter in the last 24 hours, and they watered to the tune of 6mm on Wednesday.

Now, as everyone knows, rain on top of watered ground is never a good look, and that really does worry me, as the horse that I have been eyeing up ever since the overnight declarations at 10am on Thursday would not want the ground to get too testing.

So please bear that in mind when staking - hopefully it won't be an issue at any of the tracks, and little changes - but, at the time of writing, I have to be with Red Galileo at 17.016/1 or betting in the 1m6f handicap at HQ at 14:45.

Lots of ticks in right boxes for Galileo

The ground is currently good to firm as I scribble away on Friday morning, but I'd happily settle for genuine good to soft for the selection now, as some of his better efforts have actually been on that surface, notably runner-up efforts on the Rowley course here and at Ascot in 2017.

He had nine straight starts in Meydan before his UK reappearance at York last month - he ran poorly when a 25/1 chance in the Dubai Gold Cup in March, but he was generally consistent out there, including over 2m - and I thought that run on the Knavesmire was very encouraging.

Oisin Murphy decided to make a lot of use of him from his wide stall and as a result he was also a touch too free throughout.

But he only ended up being beaten just over 4 lengths in a very strong and deep 1m4f handicap, especially meritorious considering his draw. He came out of box 18, and the first six home were berthed 5,2,7,1,3 and 13, with Proschema, who re-opposes here and wouldn't mind any significant rain, from eight, right behind him.

Newmarket - Runners - 1280.jpg

It is fair to mark up that run then, but the handicapper has eased him 1lb for it. He clearly isn't thrown in here off a mark of 104 but he fully deserves it.

There is not much pace in this race - Spirit Ridge (who is a big threat here but has possibly been done no favours with the draw) and The Grand Visir are other possibles - and he looks perfectly placed to press ahead from stall four, hopefully unhindered.

He came second on his only start on this July course and hopefully the final piece in the jigsaw is the first-time hood.

Saeed bin Suroor is a pretty remarkable 24 from 72 with this headgear switch since 2012, with a seriously healthy ROI, and that fact alone makes Red Galileo a bet at 16/1+.

Factor in all the other positives - and his jockey Adam Kirby has a 26% strike rate for the stable, too - and I can see him running a huge race, providing the ground doesn't get too bad (although he hasn't run that badly on it on two occasions, to be fair).

Fingers crossed.

An awful lot going for Awe but Jack has a Point too

If Newmarket does get a lot of rain, we can expect plenty of non-runners, and that could be bad news in the aforementioned 17-runner handicap, but you will be rather unlucky if playing each-way, fixed-odds, in the 12-runner 7f handicap at 14:10 and don't get your three places.

Try as I might I simply couldn't get away from the obvious claims of Awe and Jack's Point.

I know no-one missed the dire run that Awe got from start to finish at Haydock last time, and he heads the market here at around the 4/1 mark.

But I think that is more than justified, as he did get a horrendous buffeting last time - he was smashed about twice early doors and had no room up the inner close home, though his chance had gone by then - so he did pretty damn well to be beaten just over 5 lengths.

It was no surprise that the handicapper ignored the run, but he still looks fairly weighted on a 4lb higher mark than his previous, ½-length second over this trip on soft ground at Ascot.

Again, I wouldn't go overboard about the form, as the third and fourth have been well stuffed since, but the front two pulled 4 lengths clear and the progressive winner did wander around and mess about with Awe in the closing stages.

That run also proved he handles soft and fast ground alike and this half-brother to the stable's Group 2-placed 7f winner Headway (who now trades under the name of Happy Family, pretty unsuccessfully, in Hong Kong) really has an awful lot going for him.

The 5/1 and 9/2 in the fixed-odds marketplace quickly disappeared on Friday morning, but back him at 5.24/1 or bigger on the exchange.

I like Jack's Point too, as he ran a screamer when second to Beat Le Bon at Goodwood and still looks weighted to compete again here off a 2lb higher mark of 95. He was actually rated 97 before being dropped 4lb in one hit for his poor reappearance effort the start before.

That was also his first run since being gelded, so that could have improved him, and the stable's horses have been running well without winning of late. He warrants a small saver at 13.012/1 or bigger.

Fell recruit looks a bet at Beverley

We may as well take in Beverley next, and I had better cut the waffle and keep the word count down. Back Rousayan at 9.08/1 or bigger in the 13:25.

It was good to firm at the course on Friday morning, but the forecast from afternoon onwards looked pretty grim and wet, but hopefully that won't bother the selection, who has form with plenty of dig.

The case for him is pretty straightforward.

He started last season off a mark of 93 before losing his way for David O'Meara and he made his debut for Roger Fell (O'Meara's old partner and not the first horse to make that switch) off 85 over an extended 1m here last month, and ran much better in finishing fourth.

That brought his form figures at the track to 13418114, and I was pleasantly surprised to see the handicapper drop him 1lb for it, especially as he didn't get the ideal passage and his jockey wasn't overly-hard on him.

The step down in trip is very much in his favour too (his best form is at 7f), and he looks a bet all right, with the booking of a fair 5lb claimer getting another tick from me. He was 10/1 earlier but 8/1+ is still more than acceptable.

ITV are also showing the good juvenile races on the card, but no betting interest from me there, so on to Haydock.

Testing conditions to bring out the best in Haydock outsider

If we are guessing, to some extent, as to the ground at Newmarket and Beverley, then I think it is fair to assume that the going at the Lancashire track will be heavy. So we could be getting withdrawals here.

The opening handicap at 13:45 has already cut up badly from 16 to six at the overnight stage, and the revised betting sees Prejudice as the predictable favourite at around the 9/4 mark given the way he shaped on his return at Newbury.

The ground is an unknown and a concern but his Group 1-winning siblings Postponed and God Given both won in very testing conditions, so Prejudice, apparently a big horse who was thought badly in need of the run at Newbury, is very much the one to beat.

But I can just about let him go at the price, and the 20/1+ outsider Cormier actually interests me a fair bit (the 33/1 in the marketplace went earlier on Friday, unfortunately, but the 20/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook is still decent).

He was pulled out when nibbled at in the market at Beverley earlier in the week, on account of the fast ground, and everything about this horse's pedigree suggests he will relish the step up to 1m4f here. And beyond, down the line.

His dam had decent form on very soft ground in France, and his sire was second to Camelot on soft to heavy in an Irish Derby, so these conditions really could suit, as well.

Indeed, his half-brother Tilly's Chilli loved the mud, winning a 1m4f Listed race on it in France, and his other sibling Hatsaway scooted home in the soft over 2m at Salisbury (and another half-brother, Mindy, showed her best form on it, too).

He clearly has to step up on his Doncaster run over 1m2f on good ground in April, but these conditions could bring about considerable improvement.

I have to back him at 21.020/1 win and 5.04/1 place in this six-runner handicap.

Haydock stand 956.jpg

One last bet to land Me some Treasure

I have absolutely no argument with True Self being a 5/4 favourite in the Pinnacle Stakes at 14:25 - I think she will win - and the John Of Gaunt Stakes at 15:35 simply looked too tight a race to call, as I saw at least four of five possible winners and the market pretty much had them covered.

But I am going to throw my final dart on a very busy Saturday board in the shape of Treasure Me at 17.016/1 win and 4.507/2 place in the 15:00.

She clearly has to progress a fair amount to mix it with the much higher-rated market principals here, but she has improved for the fitting of a visor on her last two starts, and she recorded a clear career-best stepped down to 6f in the soft in a Listed race at Nottingham on her most recent outing.

Indeed, she looked as though she had the race in the bag a furlong out - she traded at 1.021/50 in the run - so reverting to 5f in these conditions could pay dividends.

Of course, she could be taken off her feet against much classier rivals, but I am willing to take an each-way chance at the price.

Good luck.

PROFIT AND LOSS TOTAL +219.4

April 14 2017 to June 7 2019 inclusive (all recommended exchange bets are settled at Betfair SP)

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