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Friday Racing Tips: Back Moore and Stoute to team up for Newmarket success

Ryan Moore can win one for 'The Boss'
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There's a feast of top-class racing on ITV4 on Friday with action at Newmarket and York, and Tony Calvin has four bets for your consideration...

"Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore teamed up to win this race with Mustard two years ago, and they have an improver on their hands with Melting Dew, who looks worth a bet at [14.0] or bigger."

Let's keep Friday's Newmarket card simple, shall we, and go in chronological order.

Regular readers will know that I rarely get involved in juvenile races but Neola doesn't look like a 20/1+ chance to me in the Cornwallis Stakes at 13:50 and nearly tempted me in.

Okay, she doesn't have the solid form claims of Sound And Silence (even with his 3lb penalty) or the unexposed nature of Battle Of Jericho or Yolo Star - the latter's Naas nursery win last week only came off a mark of 77 but that was her first run since May - but she has one or two pieces of form that make her very interesting at the price.

You have to forgive her a poor run in a sales race at Doncaster last time, where she simply didn't get into the race from her high draw on the stands' side.

I'd be inclined to put a line through that run, and concentrate on her earlier Goodwood nursery win over the hat-trick seeking Golden Salute off a mark of 89.

That was a patient ride over 6f in the soft but she had previously showed that she could be ridden more forward over this 5f trip when fifth in the Queen Mary (on good to firm) and when runner-up in a Listed race at York - I thought she was unlucky at York, where she "won" her race in the middle after showing a lot of dash - and she is probably no 20/1 outsider at her best here.

I was sorely tempted to tip her to follow in the footsteps of the stable's Bungleinthejungle, who won this race in 2012 when it was held at Ascot.

And after discarding Saturday's 33/1 winner Just Glamorous at the last minute - I can't tell you how gutted I was when he won - I really shouldn't back off tipping Neola.

But I am. If you are going to have a bet in the race though, she is definitely one to consider for the reasons above, for all she would probably prefer a bit more dig in the ground. By the way, it looks like being good ground at Newmarket, with a dry, warmish forecast.


Thoughts on the 14:25 and 15:00

Now, the 7f fillies' Group 3 race at 14:25 is exactly the kind of juvenile contest that leaves me cold.

I don't have any problem with Rockfel third Gavota heading the market at around 3/1 - she didn't get the run of the race there, and she is probably a decent price - but May Hill runner-up Dark Rose Angel has a similar form chance, and we have two or three in here that are set to take a big leap forward, the prime candidate being I Can Fly.

So we move on to the Challenge Stakes at 15:00 in which I think everyone will be on weather watch for Limato for the next 22 hours or so (assuming you are reading this column when it went live at 5pm on Thursday).

He may not have been at his brilliant 2016 best this year - which has seen his official mark drop to 115 from 122 - but he still has a Diamond Jubilee third and July Cup second on his 2017 dance card and Henry Candy, who will have been pulling his eyebrows out with the weather, must be praying that the ground remains suitable for his horse to finally have his first start for 10 weeks.

The forecast suggests he should be fine. Even if he does take his chance though, this is no gimme. In fact, Moulin third Massaat is rated higher than the favourite on 116, though he does carry a 3lb penalty for his Group 2 Newbury win, and Dutch Connection is a decent tool in this grade over 7f.

Dutch Connection's form figures over 7f read 11312161 - he is also 22216 in Group 2s - the sixth coming in Ireland - and that makes for pretty impressive reading. I was tempted by him win and place at around 13/2, and the ground should be fine for him, but I am happy to leave the race alone at this stage.


A big-priced each-way bet for the Fillies' Mile

The Ballydoyle massive are out in force again in the Group 1 Fillies' Mile at 15:35, and it is odds-on that they win this with either Happily, Magical or September.

Happily is the one to beat after her Lagardere win against the colts, and you have to think this track will suit her better than Chantilly too, but a win for either of her two stablemates wouldn't surprise either. After all, here is nothing between her and Magical on their Moyglare form, and the stable have won the last three runnings of this race.

However, the one I have to be with at these prices is Ellthea at 20/1 each-way with the Betfair Sportsbook, or [21.0] and [5.0] or bigger win and place on the exchange.

She only won her nursery at Doncaster off a mark of 81 but she bolted up in a good time and galloped her way to success in a Group 3 over 7f at Naas last time, beating a couple of O'Brien fillies.

Her pedigree suggests this mile should suit, and it could be that this filly is only finally beginning to fulfil her potential, having had problems with coming in-season and with her temperament earlier in the campaign. She may well prefer softer ground but the price allows for such doubts.


Moore can win one for 'The Boss'

I was initially going to take two against the field in the fiercely-competitive Old Rowley Handicap at 16:10 but finally decided against it.

It sounds like doubters' corner here today, sorry.

Torcello is 2lb well-in here, even with his 6lb penalty, and the key to him is forcing tactics. He is a fair 6/1 chance but I started leaning towards Crowned Eagle at [9.0] or bigger.

He went up 12lb after beating the now 103-rated Melrose winner Secret Advisor in a Windsor handicap, after which connections threw those big dice of theirs and ran him in the Derby and the Bahrain Trophy.

He blew out in both but he was gelded afterwards and there was much more promise in his third over 1m2f here last time after a 10-week break. You have to take his stamina on trust but his three half-brothers Eagle Top, Wings Of Desire and The Lark were all classy 1m4f winners, so his pedigree gives you encouragement.

But I find it slightly off-putting that the cheekpieces that he wore for the first time at Epsom (on his next start at Newmarket) are tried again here after being left on last time, and his last two jockeys (Dettori and Atzeni) have deserted him.

Mind you, I can't blame Dettori after seeing Intrepidly completely blow the start - I am talking 10 lengths here - and shape so promisingly when well-punted at Kempton last time. He was very interesting at a double-figure price.

No, I will stick with one tip. Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore teamed up to win this race with Mustard two years ago, and they have an improver on their hands with Melting Dew, who looks worth a bet at [14.0] or bigger.

He has gone up 9lb in the weights for not winning of late, which is never a good thing, and went up 4lb for his second to Duke Of Bronte when tried in first-time cheekpieces at Ascot last time.

But the third home there was a William Haggas hat-trick seeker, the race was run in a really good time, and it is interesting that connections have decided to go without the headgear here (he was previously tried in a visor), and rely on Moore to get the job done for a man he still calls "the boss". He will do for me in a race in which it is easy to fancy five or six, as you have probably guessed.


And two to back at York

Unless my TV guide is mistaken there are also two York races on ITV4.

I was mortified when Just Hiss missed the break by three lengths and was only beaten a short-head and ½ length at Haydock last time - I put him up at 20/1 here and my language in a box at the course that day wasn't the best immediately after the race - and he has to get my money at [15.0] or bigger here in the 14:45.

He won over course and distance in a good time earlier in the season and the handicapper could have been a bit nastier than raising him just 1lb for that run last time. Not only did this usual prominent racer miss the kick there but he made his belated effort detached on the far side. He was unlucky, trust me.

His three best runs have come in cheekpieces, two of which were on this track, and they are left on here. Zabeel Prince could prove very troublesome, but his price tells you as much.

I also have to get with Star Rock at [8.0] or bigger in the 15:55 as I thought she did really well to win over 1m4f at Newmarket, considering that was her first run since May and she was far too keen for her own good.

Furthermore, the runner-up Cribbs Causeway followed up at Newmarket last week, so a 5lb rise looks very workable, and on pedigree the step up to 1m6f should really suit, as she is a half-sister to the stable's Goodwood 2m5f winner Star Rider.

She will hopefully settle better today and fully see out the trip in what is admittedly a hot-looking handicap.


Recommended Bets

Back Just Hiss at [15.0] or bigger in 14:45 at York
Back Ellthea at 20/1 each-way in 15:25 at Newmarket or [21.0] win and [5.0] place on the exchange
Back Star Rock at [8.0] in 15:55 at York
Back Melting Dew @ [14.0] or bigger in 16:10 at Newmarket


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