The Yorkshire Oaks is the big race on Ladies Day at the York Ebor Festival, and our man Tony Calvin is strong on the chances of an in-form yard collecting the prize as he takes us through the card...
"Let's face it, she got a shocker of a ride when fourth to Even Song in the Ribblesdale, met a superstar filly in Minding when second in the Nassau last time, and hails from a Sir Michael Stoute yard in rude health."
Some cracking and competitive racing at York on Thursday, but that doesn't necessarily translate to a plethora of punting opportunities. This is one such day, so here we go in race card order.
It is shorter guff than usual, but don't log off just yet, as I do have a couple of recommendations...
Consistent Word given One More try
I think we can deal with the 20-runner 6f 2yo race at 13:55 pretty swiftly though, namely because it looks impossible. In fact, the more you look, the harder it gets.
Rusumaat has an obvious chance on his latest Goodwood run in a good time, but he is just one of a dozen or so with passable claims, so I can't approach the race with any enthusiasm whatsoever. Pass, with a large Timeform "P".
You don't need me to tell you that Fair Eva will take some stopping in the Lowther at 14:30 - the market does that, as she is, currently and correctly, priced at around 1.51/2 - but if she does disappoint then fellow Frankel filly Queen Kindly could maintain the family honour.
But at least by the 1m handicap at 15:05 we finally get into punting territory and I make no apologies at all for sticking with One Word More at 11.010/1.
That old tempter Fort Bastion has crept in here off a mark of 93 and it wouldn't surprise at all if he made his presence known, but I have to stay loyal to Tim Easterby's 6yo after his luckless run at Goodwood.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that he would have won with a clear run, but I think he would have finished third to the sadly-deceased Franklin D, so the fact that he has to race here off a 1lb higher mark doesn't bother me at all.
He is simply a tremendously consistent horse with good course and big-field handicap form, is ground-versatile, and if luck goes his way then he has a big race like this in him.
A reproduction of his Hambleton Stakes third here in May could just be good enough to win this, or indeed his close course-and-distance third next time where his rider dropped the whip at the furlong marker. Yes, not the best of fortune there again, given he was only beaten a neck and ½ length.
Put your faith in Queen for Yorkshire Oaks glory
I will skip the next race for now, and come back to that as my sign-off, and quickly deal with two no-bet races first.
I don't have a strong opinion in the Galtres Stakes at 16:20 - I think Abingdon is the right favourite for what it's worth - and as much as I was tempted to give Light Music another chance off 96 in the fillies and mares 7f handicap at 16:55 my enthusiasm was short-lived.
But a win and place play on Queen's Trust is the order of the day, at 9.08/1 and 2.767/4 respectively, in the Yorkshire Oaks at 15:40.
The case for her is simple. The form-horse Found could be vulnerable after a break - she will have been trained with a lucrative back-end campaign in mind and may need this - and I like Queen's Trust most from the rest of a pretty competitive field, it has to be said.
Let's face it, she got a shocker of a ride when fourth to Even Song in the Ribblesdale, met a superstar filly in Minding when second in the Nassau last time, and hails from a Sir Michael Stoute yard in rude health.
In fact, back up to 1m4f on a flatter track that is expected to suit her better than Goodwood by all accounts, it could be that the knight of the realm is lighting up a proper fat one, just as he did when having his treble on the Friday of Goodwood.
So let's hope it is not close but no cigar for us and Stoutey on Thursday. I'm here all week...
You can read my Horse Racing Tips for Friday from the York Ebor Festival behind the link.
Back One Word More at 11.010/1 in 15:05
Back Queen's Trust at 9.08/1 win and 2.747/4 place in 15:40