Saturday Racing Tips: Take Golden Steps at Newmarket

Tony Calvin
08 July 2016

Three of Tony's selections run at Newmarket on Saturday

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Racing expert and tipster Tony Calvin is back and previewing a packed day's racing at Ascot, Newmarket and York...

"Basically, he is only 3lb higher than when winning the Stewards' Cup consolation race by 1 1/2 lengths last summer despite a string of creditable efforts since, and he caught the eye in no uncertain terms on his first start beyond 6f when third over 7f122yd at Chester last time."

- Tony Calvin on Golden Steps

Any of the top five in the betting can win the July Cup at 16:35, and therein lies the problem. As a result, none of them are attractively priced.

I never need a second invitation to swim against the tide - though come to think of it I nearly died doing so in Barbados in my early 20s, so I would definitely decline - and I think Eastern Impact and Goken have outstanding claims at 46.045/1 and 40.039/1 respectively.

Eastern Impact really does look rock-solid at the price. Sure, he may lack the sexy profile of the Hendry Candy pair of Twilight Son and Limato - the latter would be my fancy among the market-leaders on fast ground - but this 5yo looks guaranteed to run his race, and that may be good enough.

For starters, he was beaten only 1½ lengths into third behind the mighty Muhaarar in this race last season, and that continued his superb run of efforts on the July course. He has raced here on only two other occasions, the first when beaten a nose in a 19-runner handicap as a 3yo and the other when a short-head winner off a mark of 100 over course and distance.

He seems to come alive here so it clearly bodes very well that he ran a stormer when fourth in the Duke Of York on his reappearance behind the race-fit Magical Memory, one place and 1¾ lengths in front of Twilight Son (albeit the subsequent Diamond Jubilee winner was giving him 5lb).

He goes well fresh, so a near two-month break since then is no negative - indeed, you have to think that this has been the plan all season - and he is strongly fancied to run a big race at the odds. He relishes fast ground, too, and the hustle and bustle of a big field seems to suit him well.

Goken is a similar price and that, too, is a touch puzzling, especially in relation to Profitable.

Profitable finished only 1¼ lengths in front of third-placed Goken when winning the King's Stand and anyone watching a re-run of that race would surely give the selection a fair chance of turning the tables on Saturday, especially over this extra furlong. He met plenty of trouble in running, and only got rolling in the final furlong.

Yet one is a top-priced 8-1 in the marketplace, and the other is available at 33-1+.

I admit very fast ground would concern me for Goken, but I wouldn't have thought the course would let it get lightning-quick, if the forecast showers do miss during Friday.

There is little doubt that Goken ran a career-best, somewhat out of the blue, at Ascot, with the promise of more to come given the run he got there. And the salient reason is why did he step forward so much?

It is interesting that they ditched the tongue-tie that he wore when adopting front-running tactics in the aforementioned Duke Of York on his previous start, and it would be remiss of me if I didn't pass on the rumour doing the rounds - even if it isn't true, and most in racing aren't - that he had his wind tweaked before the Royal meeting.

If that is correct, then it puts his chance here into even sharper focus.

The 3yo 1m handicap at 15:25 is typical for races of this nature in that in it features five or six unexposed improvers, so it is difficult to be confident.

I have been waiting for Von Blucher to reappear ever since he disappointed me when only fourth at Sandown first time up in April, but to be fair that did turn out to be quite a hot little contest.

The one I am interested in is Manson, but the booking of Ryan Moore has probably cost us a couple of points there.

He was very disappointing on soft ground in the Britannia but if he comes back to his earlier fast-ground win in a Sandown handicap then he has a big chance. He is 9lb higher here but the manner of that victory was very impressive and the second won next time up, and the fourth, Defrocked, obviously won the Britannia after winning at Doncaster before that.

I will reluctantly sit this out, but I do like Manson as a prospect.

I rarely tip or punt in 2yo races, so the Superlative Stakes at 16:00 is swerved, as they are pretty much guessing games.

If you are looking for a pace angle, I imagine that they will let the Chesham Stakes third Cunco stride on from the front, given how keen he was when restrained at Ascot and how long they took to pull him up afterwards. Expect the commentators and pundits to be wheeling out the Frankel lines if he does, and wins.

However, when you are dealing with totally unexposed youngsters, five of which are having their second starts after winning on their debuts, anything is possible.

The other Channel 4 race at Newmarket - I am sticking strictly to my terrestrial brief this week, given the sheer volume of high-class racing - is the Bunbury Cup at 17:10, and I am very keen on Golden Steps at 10.09/1 or bigger.

I am going to have to start getting more succinct with my arguments given that I have nearly filled my word count already with seven races to go - but, hey, I am providing a valuable service here.... - and Golden Steps is very easy to sum up.

Basically, he is only 3lb higher than when winning the Stewards' Cup consolation race by 1 1/2 lengths last summer despite a string of creditable efforts since, and he caught the eye in no uncertain terms on his first start beyond 6f when third over 7f122yd at Chester last time.

I appreciate Chester is not the ideal barometer of stamina but we can all agree that the horse is totally unexposed over this trip, loves fast ground, is well handicapped and has run well on this course before.

Ascot

Over at Ascot, I don't have a strong opinion on the Summer Mile at 15:15, so we can put that to one side - if he stays fast though, I suspect that Convey will prove himself up to this class but it's a very tight race ratings-wise - but I have to be with Desert Law at odds of 11.010/1 or bigger in what is an admittedly desperately competitive 5f handicap at 14:45.

He has done all his winning on fast ground so I think you have to be hugely encouraged by his third at the Curragh a fortnight ago in soft conditions.

He can race off the same mark here, having been dropped 7lb since the start of the season, and that is also the level that he raced off when a length third of 18 to the then-progressive Double Up in this contest last year. In fact, he is treading exactly the same Curragh-Ascot path again this season.

It remains to be seen whether being drawn 19 of 20 is a positive or negative, but you can't get too hung up on these things and I expect him to race prominently as per usual. He is also a course-and-distance winner.

York

They had 6.5mm at York on Thursday night, and are now forecasting plenty on Saturday morning, so I'm working on the basis of good to soft going at York. And I think they watered earlier on in the week, too.

Any more rain would not be in the interests of Earth Drummer in the John Smith's Cup at 16:15 who I backed at 20-1 each way for the race on Thursday morning.

Given the revised Saturday forecast, I am going to fight shy of putting him up at that kind of price here as I think good ground is a minimum requirement for him, especially as I also have a slight doubt about his effectiveness in a strongly-run 1m2f+ handicap. But if York does the miss the rain by off-time, then I am sure that he has a big race in him, and this could be it.

Spanish Squeeze is another interesting contender, as he has long since been thought of as better than a 98-rated handicapper, but I am going to sit on my hands for now and watch the weather on Saturday.

Muthmir is another horse who wants the rain to stay away in the 5f listed race at 16:50, and I expect him to win if it does. He is becoming a bit disappointing but he is a course winner who is unpenalised for his Group 2 win at Goodwood last summer. He is nothing to write home again on the price front, though, and this race is pretty deep and competitive for a listed contest.

There will also be a plenty of connections of horses in the 1m6f race at 15:40 looking skywards but I'm happy to let them get on with it. My fancy for the race, if pushed, would be Suegioo but I won't be betting on it.

I am going to have a nibble on One Word More at 10.09/1 in the 15:00.

Now, the case for him really is very straightforward.

He ran a blinder when third over course and distance to Always Smile and Convey in the Hambleton and is only 1lb higher here - that is exceptionally strong handicap form - and has the 5lb services of Rachel Richardson (should be 3lb, but she is allowed some "grace" days after losing her 5lb claim earlier this week), and has form on fast ground and soft, so the weather can do what it likes.

Have a good punting day but a serious piece of advice.

You don't want to be chasing or rushing around placing last-minute punts on a busy day like this, so put all your bets on before the first and don't move from RUK, which features all the top four Saturday cards.

Best of luck this weekend.

Recommended Bets

Back Desert Law at 11.010/1 or bigger in the 14:45 at Ascot
Back One Word More at 10.09/1 in the 15:00 at York
Back Eastern Impact at 46.045/1 in the 16:35 at Newmarket
Back Goken at 40.039/1 in the 16:35 at Newmarket
Back Golden Steps at 10.09/1 in the 17:10 at Newmarket