Glorious Goodwood Day 5 Tips: Toofi worth a nibble in Stewards' Cup
We've reached the final day of the Glorious Goodwood festival and our big-price tipster Tony Calvin has a quartet of selections on the afternoon, which also includes televised racing from Newmarket...
"He beat the dual subsequent winner St Michel easily in a very fast time at Musselburgh last month and would have won at Ascot last time had he not been held up so far off the pace."
The problem - if it is a problem - is the top of the betting for the Qatar Stewards' Cup at 15:45 is full of in-form, improving, recent winners that you can't seriously pick holes in.
So even getting an outsider in the frame with the likes of Orions Bow, Kimberella, Ridge Ranger and Dancing Star in the race is going to be problematical.
All have very solid claims, the hugely progressive Orions Bow in particular, but quite obviously they have been well-found in the market.
Toofi has been my long-term fancy for the race after sitting too far out of his ground, but still running with eyes-out promise, when finishing eighth when a well-backed 8-1 chance in the Wokingham, and he is 1lb lower here.
I am going to keep the faith at [13.0]; hardly a massive price, but a tempting one nonetheless given his profile. And the current 12-1, 1/4 Odds 1,2,3,4,5 with the Betfair Sportsbook is obviously very tempting, too.
You need everything in your favour - as well as a shedload of luck - to win these races, so the form of the Robert Cowell stable (Toofi has just his third start for the stable here. by the way) is undoubtedly off-putting. And the high draw in 23, and how it plays out, is an obvious worry.
He hasn't had a winner since July 13th and is operating at a mere five per-cent strike-rate this month, but he has had a few run well in defeat since - notably Goldream on Friday - that last scorer, so I am going to take the risk. He finished second to Magical Memory off just a 4lb lower mark in this race last season, and if he returns to that form he could take a fair bit of stopping.
I never take too much notice of trainer comments but at least Cowell said this morning that "Toofi is in really good order and going to run big." He is hardly going to say that he has been working like a drain, but there you go. It is what it is.
Dinkum Diamond is my other fancy in the race at the price. He is getting on a bit now but shaped well over 7f in the Bunbury Cup last time and has shown enough dash to suggest he can figure off 101 here, the same mark as for his last win at Leicester last season.
He is 1lb lower than when fourth in this race last year and, under 5lb claimer Hector Crouch, could give Henry Candy just his sixth winner this season, a remarkable stat given what a great trainer the eye-browed one is. Back him at [42.0] or bigger.
Projection to shine in curtain raiser
I really do think that Projection will win the Stewards' Cup consolation race at 14:00, , but I am more than happy to walk away when confronted by such short-priced favourites in these handicaps. And this is competitive.
He was clearly ridden with an eye to the future when fourth at Newmarket last time, and this looks a very good opportunity for him to resume winning ways. Unfortunately, the market, and everyone else, agrees.
One to consider at a bigger price is perhaps my old friend Related, a good third to Kimberella at York last time, but I'll sit this one out.
Haggas raider can take competitive heat
Move Up has gone up 6lb for a short-head win at Ascot last time but he still promises to be very dangerous off that revised mark in the 14:35.
The runner-up, Gershwin, is very well-regarded and they pulled clear of a course specialist in third, so he has a lot going for him, not least the step up in trip which promises to suit both on run-style and breeding.
But this is a 3yo handicap, and this race - 16-runners at the moment, so watch out for non-runners if you are backing with the Betfair Sportsbook (original place terms stand on exchange in the event of withdrawals but with a reduction factor, or Rule 4, applied) - is chock-full of dangers. Fifteen, to be precise. At the moment anyway.
However, Dal Harraild should be coming into this race seeking a hat-trick, and I think he is a very fair price at around [7.4].
He beat the dual subsequent winner St Michel easily in a very fast time at Musselburgh last month and would have won at Ascot last time had he not been held up so far off the pace.
In the circumstances, he did remarkably well to be beaten only heads into third - Shabbah, hailing from the Stoute stable which has such a good record in this race, was just ahead of him in second having raced prominently - and I think it is fair assume that William Haggas will be giving Pat Cosgrave strict orders to be much closer to the leaders here from his draw in two.
A 3lb rise for that Ascot third is to be expected, and he could come out best in a race which really does look ultra-competitive. In fact, I expect him to, to be honest.
Trust the Queen to rule in betting without Minding
No-one needs telling that Minding can probably run 7lb below form and still win the Nassau Stakes with ease at 15:10.
The betting "without favourite" market could be interesting though as I have been waiting on Queen's Trust to come out ever since she was given far too much to do when a strong-finishing fourth in the Ribblesdale.
The negatives are that the step back to 1m2f is probably not ideal and the Ribblesdale form has worked out as well as politics has done these past few weeks, with disappointment upon disappointment.
The race is best swerved, but Queen's Trust probably wouldn't be my outsider of the quintet, as she is in most lists.
Atrful could be a Rogue for the future
In the RUK-only races on the end of the card, nothing stands out in the 2yo maiden at 16:20 - Ascot runner-up Lockheed will be all the rage, I am sure - and nothing cries out to be backed in the 16:55.
Only the true staying racegoers - or the coach parties still attempting to drink those Goodwood bars dry - will still be around for the 1m1f apprentice handicap at 18:00.
Artful Rogue is very interesting coming here after a very lengthy absence for a local stable that had a winner here earlier in the week.
He has course form figures of 522 and has been dropped 4lb in his 21-month absence, but you would have to think this is a sighter for future opportunities - or perhaps a social day for the owners - as his best form is over 1m4f. In fact, he did all his racing over 1m2f+ as a 3yo. I do think he is interesting, though, for future reference.
And over at Newmarket...
There are a couple of C4 races at Newmarket. First up is the Listed Chalice Stakes for fillies and mares at 14:15 in which Lady Of Camelot would be my idea of the likeliest winner.
But it's a trappy race also featuring another couple of unexposed, lightly-raced types and it is easy to resist a bet in these types of races.
Pranceleya is interesting in the 15-runner nursery at 14:50 though at the time of starting to look at the race there were no prices so it was very hard to have an opinion.
But they are just filtering through now, and she looks a fair price at around the [21.0] mark. She is 20-1 with the Sportsbook, too.
She looks to have been given a very workable mark. Her third in soft ground at Nottingham has worked out okay, and she proved she can handle a quicker surface when winning in a decent time - in the context of this race - at Yarmouth last time.
In fact, her jockey Liam Jones reported that she ran well at Nottingham despite the soft going, so the quicker ground she encountered at Yarmouth, and will again here, is a bonus and the form of that maiden win looks solid with the placed horses having run well previously.
I'd be lying if I said I knew much about her jockey today, Paolo Sirigui - and he is winless in 15 rides this year, though he was a close second on his most recent opportunity - but his mount here is worth chancing to small-stakes with the Marco Botti's horses going better than they have done in a while in a poor season.
Good luck today. I am taking a much-needed break for a fortnight - my first in over a year, though unfortunately it's not a complete one with other work commitments creeping in - but my deputies are far more able than myself, so you are in good hands.
See you on my return.
Back Dal Harraild at [7.4] in the 14:35 at Goodwood
Back Pranceleya at [21.0] in the 14:50 at Newmarket
Back Toofi at [13.0] in the 15:45 at Goodwood
Back Dinkum Diamond at [42.0] in the 15:45 at Goodwood