Saturday Racing Tips: A trio of bets for day three of the Cambridgeshire meeting
The Cambridgeshire meeting concludes on Saturday and Tony can offer a pair of massive priced fancies for the feature as well as a 7/1 shot earlier in the card and plenty of views on the other races...
"Interconnection hails form an in-form stable, comes here in great nick himself and has the valuable services of 3lb claimer Josie Gordon. He also won over 1m2f in fast ground here in May, and his Epsom third at the end of August was his first start since then. He will be spot-on here. I can't work out why he is a 40-1+ poke - he is drawn in 34, so I really hope you don't have to be low - or why Ginger Jack is 50-1 and more. Back them both at [55.0] and [75.0] respectively on the exchange."
The Cambridgeshire meeting doesn't entirely fit in with my punting MO as it is obviously full of two-year-old races - Future Champion races, no less - and regular readers will know that I rarely bet in juvenile contests.
Too many unknowns on the whole for me, though Rich Legacy did us a good turn when winning the May Hill earlier in the month.
That is the exception rather than the rule, but we will come to the three Group races for the youngsters later - you never know, I may be playing - and we will start with a far easier puzzle to solve, namely the 35-runner Cambridgeshire at 16:10.
Carry On with Derryck for the feature and add another two...
I put up Carry On Deryck at [30.0] and 25-1 each way ¼ the odds 1,2,3,4,5 earlier in the week on the basis that he was due a change of luck with the draw - well, actually, the case was a bit more substantial than that - so I can't tell you the first word out of my mouth when I saw he had been landed with stall 35 of 35 on Saturday.
It wasn't 'luck', let's put it that way.
But, after the swearing subdued, I had a good look and there doesn't seem to be any strong historical bias, though I have to admit I hate it when my fancies are drawn in extreme positions, and it is an obvious worry that whatever pace there is in this race (not a lot, by the way) is low.
However, it is what it is, and you will hopefully have read the link above for my reasons for siding with the horse. He had an awful lot going for him for a 25-1+ poke on Monday, and remains more than a fair punt at around 20-1 if you haven't already played.
It would be a topical and newsworthy winner, too, with William Buick up for Saeed bin Suroor.
Ante-post business is not what it was, but some punters would have already taken a nasty hit on the race with the news that Sacred Act and Eddystone Rock - the two biggest shorteners at the top of the market during the week - weren't even declared on Thursday morning. And I would also have my doubts about current second-favourite Bravo Zolo lining up if the ground continues to dry out.
The race is quite clearly very tricky, and notable for the fact that the three winners of the last four runnings are present, too.
It is no surprise that last year's victor, Third Time Lucky, now heads the market after his back-to-form fifth at York last time. He may be 5lb higher than when inching out Master The World last season, but, in the view of many, that is negated immediately by the presence of 5lb claimer Adam McNamara in the saddle.
He has to be on anyone's short-list but, besides my ante-post selection, my two against the field at the prices now are Interconnection and Ginger Jack.
Interconnection hails form an in-form stable, comes here in great nick himself and has the valuable services of 3lb claimer Josie Gordon. He also won over 1m2f in fast ground here in May, and his Epsom third at the end of August was his first start since then. He will be spot-on here.
I can't work out why he is a 40-1+ poke - he is drawn in 34, so I really hope you don't have to be low - or why Ginger Jack is 50-1 and more. Back them both at [55.0] and [75.0] respectively on the Exchange.
Ginger Jack also comes here in rude health, having won at Musselburgh last time, and he also arrives for this race in better form than he did last season when beaten under five lengths into 10th off this mark at odds of 66-1.
Montataire my idea of the Royal Lodge winner
Right, back to the wee youngsters, and the Royal Lodge at 14:20.
I was very tempted to put up Montataire at the prices, given how impressive he was when making all and bolting up at Salisbury.
But this is a very tight race and small margins may decide the result, so the fact that he is likely to be taken on for the lead by Arcada or Douglas Macarthur, or both, meant I gave the race a swerve.
Tempted by a nibble on Roly Poly...
I was also sorely tempted by Roly Poly in the Cheveley Park at 14:55 but again wimped out at the last minute.
For all the bullish noises coming from Wesley Ward and the jaw-dropping brilliance of her Queen Mary win, I think the Morny victory last time showed us that Lady Aurelia is beatable as the season progresses, and especially at this trip.
And if you fancy Queen Kindly, then surely you have to fancy Roly Poly at the prices considering she came out the best filly at the weights on their Lowther running. Sure, Richard Fahey's filly is the less exposed but Roly Poly is tough, improving and loves fast ground.
An Intelligent bet in the Middle Park
Anyway, on to my other bet on the day and Intelligence Cross at [8.0] in the Middle Park at 15:30, a race in which Blue Point makes the market. Sure, he should be favourite after the Gimcrack win in a great time but I can't have him at around 5-4 in this company.
You can make a case for a few of these against him, but I like Intelligence Cross, for all that Ryan Moore rides stablemate Peace Envoy.
Intelligence Cross didn't handle the track when third to the Mehmas and Blue Point in the Richmond at Goodwood, but he had earlier run the winner to ½ length off levels at Newmarket and he looked an improved horse when bolting up in Ireland last time.
He is thought to be best on fast ground, so the quickening conditions will be right up his strasse and I think he is a two-year-old going places on the evidence of that 4¼ length defeat of Cheveley Park entry Holy Cat at the Curragh last time.
To be perfectly honest with you I am fully in Flat mode still, so I haven't had a good enough look at the two Market Rasen handicaps to start giving out recommendations here, so soz jumps fans.
Back Intelligence Cross at [8.0] in the 15:30 at Newmarket
Back Interconnection at [55.0] and Ginger Jack at [75.0] in the 16:10 at Newmarket
Already recommended ante-post
Back Carry On Deryck at [30.0]