Saturday Racing Tips: Long House Hall can triumph on tricky afternoon

Tony Calvin
15 July 2016

Tony believes Long House Hall is worth backing at Market Rasen (above)

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Tony Calvin believes that the several race meetings taking place on Saturday offer slim pickings for bettors. Still, if anyone is capable of finding the value then it's our man...

A 5lb rise still leaves Ballynagour on a winnable mark. But I am going to take him on to small-stakes with Long House Hall at 7.06/1 or bigger in the 14:45.

There are eight races on terrestrial TV on Saturday but, to be honest, it is one of the trickiest weekends that I can remember in trying to eke out a couple of bets.

The Irish Oaks is on RTE, not Channel 4, but the Classic at 17:45 is clearly worthy of a quick mention to start with, before we get into the domestic nitty-gritty.

I have long been a fan of Even Song but whether she is a tempting bet at 1.84/5 is debatable, especially as the expected better ground could see a lot of her rivals put modest, recent soft-ground efforts behind them. I hope the favourite bolts up though, as I've had a fair ante-post nibble on her.

The most interesting horse on show at Newmarket is Taghrooda's sister Taqaareed in the 15:50 - if you spelt both of those fillies correctly at the first time of asking then take a bow, because I didn't - but she predictably hasn't been missed in the market.

She is expected to improve a good deal from her seven-length Kempton maiden win now she gets the chance to take on a better class of filly, but the fact remains that she still has a stone or so to find to match the level that Miss Marjurie and improving Ribblesdale fifth Shall We have already shown.

I suspect she might find it though and the fact that her trainer runs her in preference to the much higher-rated Lady Of Camelot could be significant.

Ifwecan narrowly denied us a big pay-out when a neck second at a Betfair SP of 25.0 over course and distance last week, and I think he will go well again off a 2lb higher mark in the 15:15.

However, I think Hors De Combat, with a win and a second from two starts on the July course, could bounce back to form on faster ground and off a strong pace - probably set by Ifwecan, Franklin D and possibly Bathos back in trip - and odds of 13.012/1 were enough to tempt me in.

He wouldn't have been suited by the soft ground in the Hunt Cup last time and is 8lb lower than this time last season, when his good efforts included a second to Markaz in a 7f listed race here. He looks to have his conditions and is a fair, backable price.

Newbury's 25-runner Weatherbys Super Sprint at 16:10 is not usually my bag but I must admit I was sorely tempted by double-figure quotes about Spiritual Lady. She clocked a fast time when beating a good subsequent winner over 6f in the soft at Newmarket and this big filly, who only cost 9,000 guineas as a yearling, will think that she is running loose off just eight stone.

However, even though connections were getting her ready for a Queen Mary tilt, before a growth spurt meant they had to back off her for a month or so, I am worried about the drop down to 5f on what will be very fast ground, even if they have been watering at Newbury.

She could be taken off her feet in this huge field where I suspect the draw will have a huge impact. Quite how, though, I have no idea.

There is no confirmed front-runner in the 14:30 so someone is going to have to take the race by the scruff of the neck or else this could be very messy and tactical. Marginal preference would be for recent Ascot third Shwaimsa over Alyday, who encounters very different conditions to her 1m1f soft-ground Goodwood win last time, but not enough to tip her or have a punt.

I genuinely do think that Brigadier Gerard third Scottish will make all and hack up in the 15:00 - he looks the only pace in the race - and odds of around 2.56/4 are fair. That isn't the raison d'etre of this column though, so I will get him go unbacked, but he would be a decent 6-4 poke for those who like a shortie.

The Tin Man went off at 10-3 for the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stales at Royal Ascot and is a similar price for this lesser contest at 15:40 after disappointing badly there. He just folded a bit too tamely at Ascot for my liking, and I think Ibn Malik could well benefit for the step down to 6f and improve past him.

He certainly travelled as if this trip would suit when a good fourth over 7f in the Jersey last time and he could get his own way out in front if seeing off his only pace rival Watchable early doors. But odds of around 6-1 aren't great when you consider the opposition, which also includes Charming Thought and Buratino, disappointing at Newcastle last time but who will finally get his favoured fast ground back on turf.

Market Rasen's Summer Hurdle at 14:15 is frighteningly competitive, but I do think that Gwafa is the one to beat from the top of the weights. He missed the Old Newton Cup on the Flat at Haydock recently because of the soft ground, but the going won't be an issue here and he is fairly weighted off a 7lb higher mark than for his Swinton win last time.

But he is short enough and dangers aren't hard to pick out, chief among them Cornborough, who has gone up a fair 6lb for a good win in a fast time at Aintree last time. He forms part of a strong Mark Walford pairing alongside recent Uttoxeter winner Mountainside.

I am still wondering what might have been with Ballynagour in the Grand National, as I averaged 200+ on him in Betfair's ante-post market and was getting reasonably excited before he unseated Tom Scudamore when still going well at the 19th.

Actually, that's a complete lie. I was drunk in a bar in Dublin on a stag-do, and I didn't notice how well he was going - or watch the race properly - until the next day. But you get my drift. If he had stood up that afternoon, I may not have been able to that night.

Anyway, he was back to form with a good second at Uttoxeter last time, and a 5lb rise still leaves him on a winnable mark. But I am going to take him on to small-stakes with Long House Hall at 7.06/1 or bigger in the 14:45.

The case for him is simple. He ran a good trial for this race when fourth over 2m4f at Uttoxeter last time, the step up in trip will suit, the ground should present no issues and he is on an attractive mark.

He is unexposed over fences, having just his fourth chase start here, is a course winner and, if translating the form that he showed when second in the Coral Cup off just a 3lb lower mark in March, then I think he is weighted to go very close.

I am not going mad on the betting front this week, though, but good luck if you are.