Saturday Racing Tips: Have a dabble on Diable in Cheltenham opener

Tony Calvin
11 November 2016

Tony has picked out two fancies for racing on day two of Cheltenham's Open Meeting

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Betfair racing expert Tony Calvin is back and looking ahead to day two of Cheltenham's Open Meeting...

"This is only Diable De Sivola's fourth career start, and the stable's record in this race leads me to believe that they could fancy their chances of an upset. They won this race with Pistolet Noir in 2009, and they have had only three runners in it since then; a 33/1 fourth (of 15) in 2010, 33/1 fifth (of seven) in 2013, and a 25/1 runner-up last year who went on to finish third in the Fred Winter."

- Tony Calvin on Diable De Sivola

A lot of owners and trainers will be doing a rain dance in the bars and eating houses of Cheltenham on Friday evening - in the early hours they let others take over the "boogying" duties - and chief among them will be Johnny Farrelly.

No, don't worry, I am not going to go down the obvious 'Stilletto' route with that one, and I'm sure Farrelly will be tucked up in bed long before those establishments get into full swing. But he will certainly be hoping for a lap-load of rain in the next 24 hours.

I, for one, think the horse will be fine on good ground with a bit of ease in it. He travels like decent ground should be ideal for him, and he went off 11/2 favourite at the Festival on good going in March.

But apparently he is a very big horse who wants soft ground to be at his best, so there is a slight chance that he may not run if the rain doesn't arrive. And this will leave his ante-post backers - of which I am one - high and dry.

It's a day-of-race market now though, and money back if he is pulled out, and I think there is enough juice in his current price at 17.016/1 to side with him here.

He hasn't lived up to his potential just yet.

He travels like a far better horse than a 141-rated chaser on occasions, such as when dotting up by 10 lengths at Leicester in heavy ground last season, but he has failed to put in a series of sustained, good efforts.

In his defence, he has raced only nine times under Rules - he won his only point - and another switch of stables can maybe get him back on track after ending last season on a low. And Farrelly isn't doing too badly with his new recruits.

He is currently operating at a 23% strike-rate with his chasers and he is two from three with horses he has been sent from owner Roger Brookhouse this season. Drumlee Lad and Miss Estela have both won their only starts for him, and the other horse (Wixford) was nearly pulled up in a bumper at Warwick in May so presumably went wrong.

Farrelly has won with his last two runners - one of whom, the 137-rated Amore Alato, was beaten by Stilletto at Catterick last season - and I think Stilletto has the potential to at least go very close in an admittedly wildly-competitive race.

There are a lot of unknowns in the Juvenile Hurdle at 12:40, but I am more than willing to give Diable De Sivola a shot at a price.

He was virtually unsteerable at Huntingdon last time, running ridiculously wide on the bends, as well as being far too free and flighty from the outset.

He predictably finished well beaten and that wasn't the strongest of races, either, but there are reasons for expecting a much better show here.

Firstly, and most obviously, is the return to a left-handed track.

Secondly, his earlier form has worked out pretty well. He beat a dual subsequent winner on his racecourse debut at Uttoxeter in July and his second at Fontwell was boosted by the winner and third winning on their next starts.

As it stands, that form is nowhere near good enough to win this race, quite clearly, especially under a 4lb penalty for that Uttoxeter win.

But this is only his fourth career start, and the stable's record in this race leads me to believe that they could fancy their chances of an upset.

They won this race with Pistolet Noir in 2009, and they have had only three runners in it since then; a 33/1 fourth (of 15) in 2010, 33/1 fifth (of seven) in 2013, and a 25/1 runner-up last year who went on to finish third in the Fred Winter.

The stable has been pretty quiet of late, but they are two from four in the UK in November and I just sense that this horse is ready to outrun his odds.

Back him at 15.014/1 or better.

Thistlecrack goes on his merry way to the inevitable Grade 1 targets in the 3m Novice Chase at 13:15 - if this world-beater of a horse stands up, that is - but we can watch it without a bet.

The two horses that I fancied in the 13:50 at the five-day stage - Forgotten Gold and Knock House - weren't even declared this morning, and nothing else appeals.

Board Of Trade and Black Corton are my two against the field in the 15:35 - the latter has been crying out for a step up to this trip and hails from a stable that has won this race twice in recent years - but I will give this a contest a miss, as well.

Goodbye Dancer would be my tip, if pressed, in the 15:00 - after his back-to-form second at Aintree last week but this is a not a race that I have a backable opinion in. I'll be keeping an eye on Out Sam and Irish Saint with the Hennessy in mind, though.

I never bet in bumpers, sorry, so I haven't even had a look at the 16:05.

I don't fancy anything in the two C4 races at Wetherby either - it is a touch surprising to see a couple of 12k handicaps being aired there when there is so much to focus on at Cheltenham - so I will bid you farewell. There is no point in forcing bets with another big day's racing on Sunday.

Be lucky.

Recommended Bets

Back Diable De Sivola at 15.014/1 in 12:40 at Cheltenham
Back Stilletto at 17.016/1 in 14:25 at Cheltenham