Idaho has major claims in the Leger, but can he last the trip?
You don't need me to tell you that Idaho has an outstanding form chance in the St Leger at 15:45, but I simply can't be having the horse at around the 1.84/5 mark.
There is the very real possibility that he could go off a lot shorter, too.
Apparently those connected to the horse have no doubts at all about him staying the trip - and they would know better than me - but I would have serious concerns nonetheless, especially if I was minded to take those odds-on quotes. Which, of course I am not.
No-one is arguing that that his placed Derby efforts, and indeed his Voltigeur win, don't give him outstanding form claims.
But I wouldn't get carried away with the fact that he won going away at York last time because I thought the race was set up perfectly for him, and this will be more of a grind. And in all of his last three starts he has looked a horse with more speed than stamina to me.
We tend to be blasé about a horse staying, and you will hear plenty saying that he will get this extra 2f and 132 yards easily enough. He may, but go on a racetrack and walk it. For a horse who has already raced a lung-busting 1m4f, it can be a big ask. And it is certainly unknown territory for Idaho, at the very least.
He came to win his race at Epsom and the Curragh and got outstayed and outbattled both times - by much better than horses than these admittedly - and indeed after the Derby some were suggesting that he should step down to 1m2f.
Now, he could win this without coming off the bridle but this race promises to be strongly-run - both of his stablemates can go on, as can Harbour Law and second-favourite Muntahaa - and I am hoping that this brings Housesofparliament's rock-solid stamina fully into play.
I thought he made the running on sufferance at York last time - the first time he had been asked to in his career - and he actually had them all at it at one point there, trading at a low of 1.330/100 in the run. More patient tactics, which were adopted when he won the 1m5f Bahrain Trophy from impressive subsequent Goodwood scorer Platitude, could see him improve further.
I put him up at 14/1 about a fortnight ago, and more than happy with that position, and I think he remains a very fair each-way price at around 9/1 - I also have a lot of time for his other stablemate, Sword Fighter - even if I am worried about some weather forecasts predicting up to 30mm of rain at Doncaster in the next 24 hours. I was at Haydock last weekend, and trust me it wasn't pleasant.
Rivet favourite for the Champagne Stakes
It is a ridiculously busy weekend, with so many options for the best horses in Ireland and France - it really is madness that the Leger and Irish Champions day clash on Saturday, and a superb Curragh card is set against the Arc trials on Sunday - and the Champagne Stakes at 14:00 has suffered.
It has cut up to only six runners - and Thunder Snow and D'Bai were only added after the race was re-opened - and it is no surprise to see Rivet as favourite given the manner of his York victory and the unreal form of the Haggas stable. But he does look short enough at around 2.111/10.
I don't have a strong opinion in the 15:10, but I do think Toormore's connections should consider making the running with him.
He was very disappointing at his beloved Goodwood last time and carries a 3lb penalty but I think a reversion to front-running tactics over this furlong-shorter trip could pay dividends. They did when he won the Lennox last season.
Going into Friday's racing, four of George Baker's last six runners on the Flat had won and I think his tricky old customer Humidor is worth chancing at odds of 19.018/1. Sod's law that his stablemate Harry Hurricane will dot up now...
The horse is getting on as a 9yo and often blows his chance at the start but he has run two excellent races at Goodwood and Epsom on his last two outings, and he is clearly weighted to be competitive off his current mark.
He won the Scarborough Stakes at this meeting in 2011, and also his maiden here, and he is ground-versatile so the weather can do what it wants. In fact, the more it rains the better,
I will be having a saver on Captain Colby at 9.08/1, though, with a weather watch.
The reason is brief and straightforward. He is less exposed than most and ran well from a disadvantageous draw when staying on well from an unpromising position to finish third at York last time. Off the same mark, he is a big player and the likeliest winner.
One word of warning though - he probably wouldn't relish a lot of rain, so you may prefer to wait until nearer the off before deciding whether to back him.
I'll leave the Irish racing to others - though I think Found at around 10-1 could be the forgotten horse in the Irish Champion Stakes at 18:45 - but I do have one more More4 bet in the shape of Dubai Dynamo at Chester at 14:15.
I am picking all the oldies this week and the claims of this 11yo don't seem very obvious, especially drawn 10 of 12.
But he is a hold-up horse anyway, so needs to be dropped in, and he is a course-and-distance winner who has been running well of late and races off a 1lb lower mark than when a fair seventh at Ripon last time.
He could pick these up late and rates a fair bet at 13.012/1 or bigger.
Back Dubai Dynamo at 13.012/1 in the 14:15 at Chester
Back Humidor at 19.018/1 in 14:35 at Doncaster
Back Captain Colby at 9.08/1 in 14:35 at Doncaster
Back Housesofparliament at 15.014/1 in St Leger