Saturday Racing Tips: A quartet of value plays from Newbury and Newmarket

Has Tony spied decent value at Newbury and Newmarket?
Has Tony spied decent value at Newbury and Newmarket?

Rain may have claimed the racing at Ayr but Tony Calvin has still found four horses to back at Newbury and Newmarket.

"Dylan Mouth was a high-class horse in Italy in 2015 and 2016, winning three Group 1s from 1m2f to 1m4f (he also won over this intermediate 1m3f trip), but he was a something of a slow-burner for Marco Botti before catching fire in the Old Newton Cup last time out in July."

I am not sure what has been going on with the ground at Ayr for the last day or so, but at least everyone knew their fate early when the last day of the meeting was abandoned before 8am on Friday morning.


Mouth's making the right noises in strong Group 3


At least, Newbury will be over the moon with the quality of their 1m3f Group 3 race at 14:15. I think we may have seen weaker Group 1s this season, even in this country, with the Falmouth Stakes springing readily to mind.

Only 7lb separates 10 of the 11-strong field - and the other runner Wingingit, the only three-year-old in the race who is having her first start for Andrew Balding, isn't a complete no-hoper - and it's a high-class renewal, no doubt.

Desert Encounter didn't quite come up to my (too lofty) expectations in the King George last time but he is the joint highest-rated horse in here courtesy of his excellent Eclipse third - Secret Number is also rated 114 but he carries a 5lb for his Group 2 win in Turkey at the start of the month - and I think he is the right favourite ahead of in-form, course specialists Second Step and Scarlet Dragon.

But the horse I like at the prices is Dylan Mouth at 11.010/1 or better.

He was a high-class horse in Italy in 2015 and 2016, winning three Group 1s from 1m2f to 1m4f (he also won over this intermediate 1m3f trip), but he was a something of a slow-burner for Marco Botti before catching fire in the Old Newton Cup last time out in July.

He was ultra-impressive there and the form of his 2¼ length defeat of Soldier In Action off a mark of 104 has worked out well in the main. The runner-up won off a 2lb higher mark at Goodwood, and the sixth (Fabricate) and the ninth (Euchen Glen) obliged next time.

Granted, plenty have disappointed from the race, too, but the clock doesn't lie and he won that race on fast ground in a very quick time.

His subsequent absence is a slight concern but he has an impressive record of running well when fresh. Indeed, his seasonal reappearance form figures read 11112. That will do for me at 10/1+.


Lansky win and place value in Mill Reef


I think Invincible Army is by far the most likely winner of the Mill Reef at 14:50 and he probably is a fair price at around 3/1.

I thought he was incredibly impressive at Kempton last time, and he had earlier bumped into a potential top-notcher in the shape of Sands Of Mali in the Gimcrack.

But, as we saw with Soldier In Action last week, I am better off giving favourites a very wide berth in this column - it is designed for bigger-priced plays, anyway - and I think Lansky could be worth a win and place play at 9.08/1 and 2.767/4, or bigger, respectively.

He has the best part of four lengths to find with James Garfield on their Acomb form at York last time, and the worry is that he doesn't have the speed to shine over 6f, especially as there isn't a lot of guaranteed pace in here.

But he raced wide all the way at York last time from his outside stall (he was drawn 11 of 11), and Gerald Mosse didn't manage to get him organised - the horse was still very green, so I am proving being harsh there - and as a result, didn't give him an overly-hard time of it in finishing third.

He will hopefully have come on a bundle for the experience, and be more at home over this straight 6f on decent ground. He looks worth a small each-way play.


Banksea can claim a big race win for Cumani


I don't have an opinion in the 17-runner 5f Group3 sprint at 16:00 - Priceless would be my token pick - but I will back Banksea at 13.012/1 or bigger in the 15:25.

You will not want to be near me if my old "buddy" Baydar follows up his win in this race last year on his first start for the excellent Ian Williams, but he is 3lb badly-in in this early-closer and is thought to need to softer ground than he is likely to get here.

No such problems for Banksea, who wants it to stay dry, as is forecast (famous last words).

Banksea got up late to win a 1m handicap on fast ground here in April but things haven't worked out for him since. He went off 10/1 for the Hunt Cup, where he had no chance from his low draw, and then apparently wasn't right at home afterwards for a while.

He had his first start since at Ascot earlier this month but he had no chance on soft ground there, and hopefully back on his favoured surface, from a fair stall in five, and over a 1m2f trip on which he has winning form, then a big run is expected.

He also looks fairly weighted off just a 4lb higher mark than his win here in April, his first start since being gelded. He beat some good subsequent winners in second, third and sixth there, to name just three.

His trainer used to have a good record in this race, winning it with the likes of Presvis in 2008 (he also won it in 2007 and 2010), so hopefully Banksea can roll back the years for good ole' Luca.


Oceane can make waves in Cesarewitch Trial


Over at Newmarket, there is a cracking Cesarewitch Trial and I think Oceane could be worth chancing at 21.020/1 or bigger in the 15:10.

Now, he is clearly far more exposed than the likes of a Time To Study and he blew out big style when 5/2 favourite for this race last year.

But he has been dropped 2lb since his last run at York and I thought there was enough promise in that run to stick with him here. He stayed on quite well there given it was his first run since Royal Ascot, and it could have teed him up nicely for this.

We know he stays this trip well and he is only 1lb higher than when a close second to Graceland at Ascot in May and that form has worked out pretty well.

The first-time visor that he wore at York last time is left on here, and Alan King has his string in good form.


Recommended Bets
Back Dylan Mouth at 11.010/1 or bigger in 14:15 at Newbury
Back Lansky at 9.08/1 win and 2.767/4 place in 14:50 at Newbury
Back Oceane at 21.020/1 or bigger in 15:10 at Newmarket
Back Banksea at 13.012/1 or bigger in 15:25 at Newbury

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