Goodwood Day Four Tips: You're Fired to land us a fine pay day

Tony has three more selections for day four of this year's Glorious Goodwood meeting
Tony has three more selections for day four of this year's Glorious Goodwood meeting

It's the penultimate day of this year's Glorious Goodwood festival and our man Tony Calvin is keen on a trio of wagers on what looks an incredibly competitive card...

Recommended Bets

Back You're Fired at 17.016/1 in the 15:10

Back The Rectifier at 26.025/1 in the 15:10

Back Newera at 11.010/1 in the 17:30

Goodwood, 14:00

Withdrawing The Corsican from Ascot's King George at 8.15am on Saturday morning remains one of the more baffling decisions of the 2015 Flat season so far - on a par with not declaring Gleneagles for the Sussex on Monday, though the list of Ballydoyle late defections this week suggests a few in the yard may have the odd sniffle - but at least that late swerve sees him line up a strong favourite for the Glorious Stakes at 14:00.

I genuinely think that he would have given Postponed and Eagle Top plenty to think about last weekend - it was one of the worst renewals of the £1m+ Group 1 contest in recent years, after all - so, while playing at these prices is not the raison d'etre of this column, I couldn't put anyone off at around 2.767/4 in this far lesser race (it is "only" worth 100k, for starters).

In fact, I thought that he would be a bit shorter. He comes into this race as a very progressive horse who, although running a career-best, probably wasn't seen to best effect when coming from off the pace to finish an excellent fourth in the Prince Of Wales last time.

He faces an unexposed rival in Connecticut but it will be surprising if The Corsican, set to be suited by the step back up to 1m4f and on a course he won over earlier in the season, doesn't win this, and win it well.


Goodwood, 14:35

Now I have started with the opener I may as well carry on in chronological order, and if his second to Gleneagles in the St James's Palace Stakes didn't flatter him - and the time suggests it didn't - then Latharnach looks a worthy jolly in the 14:35.

But I personally wouldn't be in a rush to take a short price as Kempton maiden winner Convey is obviously hard to pin down ability-wise, and William Haggas must think a good deal of Hathal to have let him take his chance in the Jersey Stakes just 11 days after winning his maiden. And he ran with no little promise, too.

I won't be having a bet in this race but, for those interested, I think Aktanbantay could be the each-way call in here, with his stable in great form. He went off far too fast in the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly last time and a more sensible ride could see him finish in the front three, and possibly the top spot, at a decent price.


Goodwood, 15:10

I am going in two-handed in the 1m handicap at 15:10, and first up has to be You're Fired at odds of 17.016/1 in spite of his wide draw in 16.

Logic suggests that you want an early speed horse drawn low now that the rail has been moved out, but recent runnings of the race don't necessarily back that up, and I couldn't live with myself if I didn't punt, and tip, the selection after his luckless run last time.

I must have turned the air blue within a mile radius of my house during his York run last time, as he was on the back foot throughout after a slow start, meeting trouble in running and doing remarkably well in the end to make such good late progress off a muddling pace to finish third.

Betting blinkers on maybe, but I am convinced that he would have won that race with better luck in running. He is 2lb well-in on the bare form alone and I reckon he just about wins with a half-decent run from the rear. Mind you, that's about a 10-1 poke around here - I am just getting over Volunteer Point on Tuesday - so I hope Paul Mulrennan takes the cowards' route and comes wide.

As the actress may have said to the plumber - do people still do these jokes? (ed: just you Tony!) - I just can't take any more blocked passages.

Lastly, it is interesting that Mulrennan's only ride for the stable in the last five years resulted in a 12-1 win for Intense Tango at Haydock last season.

Ocean Tempest has been given a real chance by the handicapper, and Lincoln will get a better ride than he did at Ascot on Saturday, but my other fancy at big odds is The Rectifier at 26.025/1.

The race looks set up for him to take the field along from stall two - Ocean Tempest on his inner could be troublesome though if primed after a break - and he bounced back to something like his best when fifth in You're Fired's race at York last time.

That was a welcome effort after failing to beat a horse home in his two previous starts this year, and as a result of those efforts he had slipped down to 102 (though he is due to go down 2lb in future handicaps, admittedly), just 2lb higher than when he made all to win at Salisbury last June. This trip on quickening ground is ideal.


Goodwood, 15:45

I have to desert my old mate Muthmir at the price in the 15:45 even if this is his easiest task of the campaign - though he carries a 4lb penalty for his French Group 2 success - and it is a big call to set another of my favourites, Salt Island, in amongst the 5f speedsters here.

This just looks too tight and trappy a race to have a strong opinion in, but Out Do would be my selection if asked, as he is progressive and you can just see this traveller sitting in behind the furious pace and pouncing late.

The nursery at 16:20 looks impossible to me and it is very difficult to see too much of an edge in the 16:55 though Kiyoshi would be my one against the field.


Goodwood, 17:30

The concluding 3yo handicap at 17:30 isn't much easier and they clearly think a lot of Haydock winner Tashaar, who looks set to head the market.

And there will probably be money flying around for fellow once-raced maiden winner Rythmical from stall one - he could be well treated off 76, especially as his Leicester win came in a good time - and Peterhof's homework marks him out as far better than a 84-rated horse. And that is without mentioning Taraz, an 8-length winner at Epsom last time.

All are sexy mistress-types but I am going to row in with the trusty housewife who keeps on putting the bread on the table, in the shape of Newera.

That analogy doesn't really work as he is a colt. But you get my drift, and I think a 4lb rise for his nice Haydock win from an in-form Cyril last time is very fair.

Connections will probably be worried about the drying ground but the form book says he has won three times on good to firm, and he could have been coming here on a six-timer had his 7lb claimer given him a more aggressive ride in defeat last month.

I like trainers who have long-term plans for their horses, and Tom Dascombe mentioned this race as a target immediately after his last win, so at odds of 11.010/1 this progressive horse gets my money.


Recommended Bets

Back You're Fired at 17.016/1 in the 15:10
Back The Rectifier at 26.025/1 in the 15:10

Back Newera at 11.010/1 in the 17:30


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