After 10/1 shout Angelic Upstart ensured it was another profitable day for Tony Calvin on Thursday, our in-form tipster looks to day four at Glorious Goodwood, attempting to banish the memory of a painful defeat 12 months ago by backing a big-price winner in the same race...
"And what seals the deal is that he is two from two at this course, and they included a maiden win at this meeting two years ago, and a listed race victory before he went on to take the Royal Lodge."
Every punter has a hard luck story from Glorious Goodwood each year and my 2013 version was Goldophin's Sandagiyr in the Betfred Mile.
Having tipped and backed him at around 50-1, I sat and suffered as much at home as Mikael Barzalona did on the rail, as the gap came all too late and he could only manage a strong-finishing length third to Wentworth.
I only mention that because Godolphin's Steeler - albeit trained by Charlie Appleby and not Saeed bin Suroor - has a remarkably similar profile to that horse and he is the one I fancy at odds of 27.026/1 or bigger in the 15:05.
And I fancy him pretty strongly at the price, actually.
Like Sandagiyr, Steeler comes here after having raced in Dubai in the winter and had just the one start back in this country, in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot.
But whereas his stablemate finished down the field, Steeler ran an absolute cracker to finish third at Ascot.
That proved that he has most of the ability that saw him become a leading juvenile in 2012 - he missed the whole of last season - and the handicapper has kindly left him alone on a mark of 105 for that run.
And what seals the deal is that he is two from two at this course, and they included a maiden win at this meeting two years ago, and a listed race victory before he went on to take the Royal Lodge.
The draw is an obvious worry but the inflated price compensates for that.
Of course, there are no end of dangers in here and a lot of the horses that contested the 7f International Stakes at Ascot on Saturday, headed by winner Heavy Metal, turn out again, and you'll have to indulge me as I have to row in with Fort Bastion again at 21.020/1 or better.
Having put him up at 75.074/1 at the weekend, I thought he ran a perfectly good race to finish eighth, and he stayed on in a manner that suggested that a return to this mile would suit. Indeed, his best effort this season came when he was just touched off over this trip at York in May, off just a 3lb lower mark.
Same rules apply as to Saturday's logic. Expect his regular pilot James Sullivan, not on him at Ascot but back on board today, to deliver him late, as he is tricky.
I can't see much of angle into the 13:55, which sees the return of 2012 Leger winner Encke. If forced to play then I would probably side with Pether's Moon at around 4.57/2 but I won't be punting here myself.
I originally wasn't going to tip in the 14:30 either until I saw Bow Creek's price drifting out to 8.07/1 on Betfair. That is big enough to tempt me in.
Favourite Shifting Power is the obvious one in this competitive Group 3 but he only has 7lb in hand of Bow Creek and Mark Johnston's 3yo is improving judged on his excellent second in the Britannia at Royal Ascot, a performance that impressed jockey Ryan Moore.
He came from behind to finish strongly there but he has made the running before, and it wouldn't surprise me at all were Joe Fanning to send him on from the front, a la most Johnston horses this week.
There are a couple of others in here who have made it in the past but they are drawn wide, so expect Fanning to take the initiative from stall four.
The King George at 15:40 rounds off the Channel 4 races and I was tossing up for ages - steady - before choosing between Moviesta and Take Cover.
I couldn't put anyone off last year's winner Moviesta back on fast ground, but Take Cover at 11.010/1 gets the vote.
He was just chinned on the line in a 6f handicap off a mark of just 89 at this meeting last season and showed just how far he had come when blitzing the highly-regarded - and extremely well-backed - G Force over 5f on fast ground in a listed race at York last time.
He can take the step up to Group 2 company in a winning stride. And, remember, he was only beaten three lengths in the Group 1 King's Stand first time out this season.
Back Steeler @ 27.026/1 or better in the 15:05 at Goodwood
Back Fort Bastion @ 21.020/1 or better in the 15:05 at Goodwood
Back Bow Creek @ 8.07/1 or better in the 14:30 at Goodwood
Back Take Cover @ 11.010/1 or better in the 15:40 at Goodwood