Friday Racing Tips: Drop in trip makes Lat Hawill well worth a look

Tony Calvin
11 May 2017

Tony has previewed a full day's racing on the Friday at Chester

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On to Day 3 of the May Festival at Chester and Tony Calvin is back to talk us through the card. Just the one recommended bet for Friday - but it's a big priced one...

"Very reluctantly though, as he is now put in one of the outsiders of the party, and maybe something was amiss at Thirsk at the weekend (the quick turnaround may suggest as much, he said hopefully). And also the slight drop back in trip on this track, with a 5lb claimer up, will re-energise what can be a tricky customer."

Whoever is responsible for backing Cliffs Of Moher into third favouritism for the Derby on the exchange - he is currently 11.010/1 to lay at the time of writing - will be hoping that he routs the Dee Stakes field at 14:25.

Because, let's face it, it isn't a great race, not that the roll-call of recent winners has you losing count of their Classic successes.

None can boast an official rating of more than 101 and neither have any recorded a time figure to match Cliffs Of Moher's Leopardstown win last October, so this does look his for the taking, unless Mirage Dancer takes a big leap forward from his Doncaster win last autumn.

That is perfectly possible, as the Frankel colt has the pedigree and is a well-regarded, once-raced winner, but Cliffs Of Moher threatens to be a class above.

His 5½-length defeat of Orderofthegarter, set to contest the French 2,000 Guineas on Sunday after two impressive wins this season, came in a very fast time and one would assume his Galileo influence - his dam was a 5f sprinter - will enable him to possess the stamina required to last home over an extended 1m2f round here.

But his price is about as attractive as a skiing holiday (skiing - really?) and Mirage Dancer could be the horse to give him most trouble. He is a Frankel colt from a top-class Juddmonte family, and his Doncaster maiden win last autumn worked out very well.

That only earned him a rating of 87 but I suspect he is a good deal better than that. But I am only guessing, so I will stop short of putting him up each-way.

If I found Thursday's meeting hard to eke out a bet then it is fair to I struggled badly on Friday's card, and be warned as rain is forecast, too.

The opener at 13:50 looked nigh-on impossible, and I certainly couldn't go near the favourite El Hayem at his price.

I couldn't believe how badly Lat Hawill ran at Thirsk last Saturday, having shaped as though he should have won off this mark at Musselburgh previously - yes, I backed him on both occasions - so he got the elbow, especially from his draw in 12.

Very reluctantly though, as he is now put in one of the outsiders of the party, and maybe something was amiss at Thirsk at the weekend (the quick turnaround may suggest as much, he said hopefully). And also the slight drop back in trip on this track, with a 5lb claimer up, will re-energise what can be a tricky customer.

The five course winners, including last year's winner Hillbilly Boy, will get plenty of betting attention, no doubt, but I couldn't find any angle. Grand Inquisitor was interesting back on turf, having been dropped a quick 6lb for two all-weather runs for his new stable, but then again he has beaten only one of the 20 horses he has faced this season.

I seriously can't fancy anything in the 5f handicap at 15:00 though Copper Knight came closest.

He totally lost the plot for Hugo Palmer after winning the Lily Agnes at this meeting last year but a gelding operation and a change of scenery saw him run well for his new stable last time. From stall four, it is not hard to see him going well, and double-figure quotes are fair, but no betting interest from me.

And then we come to the Ormonde Stakes at 15:35 where US Army Ranger looks a very opposable favourite indeed. I couldn't have him on my mind at the price, and I may well place-lay him.

But, then I looked at the opposition, and I didn't fancy any of them either, though Musselburgh handicap winner Carbon Dating was probably the pick of the rest from a price perspective.

No, I am going to do something I have never done before (in print anyway) and go back to a horse in the opener that I originally swerved, as I think he probably offers the best value on the card.

And I often back horses that I don't particularly fancy, only for the price to draw me in. We all bet in different ways.

So back Lat Hawill at 30.029/1 or bigger in the 7f127yd handicap.

He really should have won at Musselburgh off this mark two starts ago - go and have a look at the video if you don't believe me - and he needs luck, as he delivered late and from off the pace, so if the outside draw means that I am getting a bigger price (and it does) then I'll take it.

Put it this way, he is a better price here than he was when going off at 10/1 in the French 2,000 Guineas in 2014!

There are a couple of decent races at the end of the card but nothing that got the old punting juices flowing, though Judicial in the 5f conditions race and Croquembouce in the 1m4f handicap could be worth a second look. The latter, in particular, seems to have a fair amount going for him.