Newmarket July Festival Day 2 Tips: Tiara a big price to be crowned Falmouth winner

Tony Calvin
13 July 2017

Will Tony get among the winners on day two of the Newmarket July Festival

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Tony Calvin started the Newmarket Festival with a winner in the opening race on Thursday and he returns with two huge-price selections for Friday's racing at HQ plus a big-price wager at York...

"Conditions of 1m on decent ground will suit, she finished fourth in a Sweet Solera here at two, and her trainer won this race with Music Show in 2010. In short, she looks more like a 14/1 chance, than 40/1, to me."

Back Opal Tiara at 44.043/1 or bigger in 15:35 at Newmarket

As Group 1's go, they don't come any softer than the Falmouth Stakes at 15:35 so I make absolutely no excuses for tipping the rank outsider. Back Opal Tiara at 44.043/1 or bigger.

From a personal, and I suppose professional, point of view I hope that Josephine Gordon wins this on the progressive Arabian Hope - she won't get a better chance of winning a top-level race for a good while yet - but I am not tipping the filly at around 5/1 on that basis.

And I can't get excited by the claims of the other market leaders at the prices.

Favourite Roly Poly gets her chance of a Group 1 prize of her own after chasing home Winter at the Curragh and Ascot - she was sacrificed to some degree when taking on Precieuse for the lead in the Coronation Stakes, and did very well to stick on for second - but I can't get excited by odds of around 3.185/40 for her.

Likewise, the prices about French 1,000 Guineas runner-up Sea Of Grace and returning Boussac winner Wuheida are basically pretty much what you would expect. No juice, though.

I can easily see one of the three outsiders winning this, and Opal Tiara gets my vote at 40/1+.

There is no leap of faith required to fancy her, either. Her official mark of 109 is only 5lb and 3lb shy of Wuheida and Roly Poly respectively, and at the peak of her powers she was rated 111.

That mark was "awarded" after she won a 1m1f Group 2 at Meydan in February, and among her other high-class efforts she can number a 7f Group 3 defeat of Convey at Goodwood last summer.

She ran two very solid races in Group 2 company after returning from Dubai this spring, and she wasn't given a hard time once her chance had clearly gone in the Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot last time.

Conditions of 1m on decent ground will suit, she finished fourth in a Sweet Solera here at two, and her trainer won this race with Music Show in 2010. In short, she looks more like a 14/1 chance, than 40/1, to me.

Huge price Funding to eliminate any Deficit

I don't have a betting interest in the 14:25. I nearly tipped the progressive Merchant Of Venice each-way at around the 9/1 mark, but the three form horses of Nyaleti, Clemmie and Out Of The Flames do set a pretty high standard to aim at.

Nothing shouts out at me in the 1m2f handicap at 15:00 but I will row in with another rank outsider - hopefully, it doesn't run rank, though it's a distinct possibility, I accept - in the shape of Funding Deficit in the 13:50. Back him at 70.069/1 or bigger.

A draw in one could prove a barrier to success and there is also the small matter of him finishing a 33 length last of nine on his reappearance, when 40/1, at Hamilton just 10 days ago. He is also due to go down 2lb in future handicaps.

But he was always unlikely to be seen to best effect over 6f on soft ground on his comeback - though that said, he does have form over that trip, on that ground and winning form when fresh - and there are reasons to be hopeful that he can put that run behind him on his favoured better ground and over an extra furlong.

In spite of being 2lb badly-in, he races off the same mark as when a good third over 6f on fast ground at Ascot last season, and I think 7f is more his trip, too. The general 66/1 on the fixed-odds looks too big to ignore as well.

Oasis can provide us with a Fantasy winner

Over at York, I am going to bite the bullet and give Oasis Fantasy one more chance at 11.010/1 or bigger in the 14:40.

I have been a bit surprised that he has been ridden so prominently, and aggressively, on his last two starts. He paid for it over this trip at Ascot last time, but, to his credit, he did stick on well when third over an extended 1m2f at soft the time before.

He has actually run four of his better races at this course, so that bodes very well, as does the fact that he has been dropped 2lb since Ascot.

That puts him on a very tempting mark of 95 - that's 3lb lower than just touched off at Glorious Goodwood under a more patient ride last summer - and I have to be with him again at these odds, though it could be a messy race, as there is no obvious pace in here.

Recommended Bets

Funding Deficit at 70.069/1 or bigger in the 13:50 at Newmarket
Back Oasis Fantasy at 11.010/1 or bigger in 14:40 at York
Back Opal Tiara at 44.043/1 or bigger in 15:35 at Newmarket