Dante Festival Day 3 Tips: Tony Calvin's quartet of bets for Friday at York

Betfair Tipster Tony Calvin
Tony Calvin has four selections for the final day of York's Dante Festival

We have some very competitive action on the final day of York's Dante Festival, and here with his quartet of bets is our resident tipster Tony Calvin...

"Now, this race has plenty you can put up against her, but none makes more appeal than Primo Bacio, who surely would have gone very close in the Fred Darling if the door hadn't shut on her when she was making ground just after the 2f pole.

Back Primo Bacio in 14:10 at York at 15.014/1

I was all set to have a very rare bet in a 2yo race in the shape of Fabiosa in the opener at York at 13:40 only to bottle it at the last minute.

You will be thanking me when she runs a blinder and finishes fifth!

That could well be the scenario in a race this deep, as just a basic, cursory glance at the form figures of the fillies in here underlines we are dealing with a slew of lightly-raced and promising winners ready to take a big step forward.

I mentioned fifth earlier as the Sportsbook are offering four places on the race and that nearly tempted me in with Fabioso - indeed, it did first thing on Wednesday morning when she was available at double-figures in the marketplace - but the more I have looked at the race since then, the more dangers I have seen.

Which is hardly surprising when you are dealing with 2yo races at this time of the season and the biggest improver could well be the once-raced maiden, 185,000gns yearling Nymphadora, who shaped far better than the bare form of her sixth suggests (she hit 2.245/4 when showing very good speed on the far rail) at Newmarket on her debut last month.

But Fabiosa would still be my number one, if forced.

She looked all over the place when fourth to Crazyland and Sienna Bonnie in what promises to be a hot novice at Windsor on her debut - both re-oppose here and the second bolted up by 8 ½ lengths at Bath next time - and she again looked far from the finished article and pretty green when winning herself at Nottingham last time.

I love the way she finishes off her races, showing real untapped zest, but my main worry is that she could be taken off her feet here on presumably drying ground now (though they got some more rain on Wednesday evening and could get some further Thursday showers), so I will sit this one out from a tipping perspective.

I have backed her though, as I said, before my confidence waned.

Unlucky loser Primo a big price to make amends

I am not sitting out the 3yo 1m fillies' race at 14:10 though as it presents punters with that rarity.

An unlucky last-time out runner who has been underestimated by the market.

Step forward Primo Bacio at 15.014/1 or bigger. She is also 14/1 with the Sportsbook.

We know Snow Lantern has the pedigree and potential, and many would love to have seen her in the 1000 Guineas, but she surely makes the market here for the rest at 6/4.

Now, this race has plenty you can put up against her, but none makes more appeal than Primo Bacio, who surely would have gone very close in the Fred Darling if the door hadn't shut on her when she was making ground just after the 2f pole.

She did remarkably well to be beaten just 2 ½ lengths in fourth, and the first and third at Newbury were not disgraced at all in the Guineas.

Her trainer is a touch worried about the filly's stamina for a mile, it seems - and he had her in a 7f race at the weekend, too - but on pedigree and run-style (she also saw her race out very well over 7f when winning at Lingfield last season), that is not something that concerns me much.

The level of opposition does - though she is actually joint top-rated on adjusted official figures with Love Is You carrying a 3lb penalty - but the price is more than adequate compensation to provide another winner for the owner-trainer combination who tasted success with the impressive Starman here on Wednesday.

Easterby recruit looks well worth chancing off this mark

The 1m2f56yd handicap at 14:40 could be a very warm affair.

Everyone saw what a bad run Blue Cup got when very weak in the market at Epsom last time (not least the layers) - he should have won, and he can race off the same mark here - and we have another unexposed William Haggas handicapper in here in the shape of Irish Admiral, and those two could be well ahead of their marks.

But I have to look elsewhere and the three on my betting shortlist were Satono Japan, Surrey Pride and Sameem.

Satono Japan is beautifully bred, being by Deep Impact out a dual Grade 1 winner in the States and would have got a lot nearer with a clear run late on at Chelmsford last time.

Surrey Pride is on a fair mark but I just wonder whether he will be fully tuned up here, and the one I think is the premier bet is Sameem at 33/1 each-way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

He clearly lacks the sexy appeal of the front three in the market, and possibly their future handicap scope, but he has more going for him than those odds imply on his stable debut for Tim Easterby.

Hopefully, given the trainer and his love for York, the new recruit will be fit and ready here, and connections could have found a real bargain, having paid just 18,000gns for him out of James Tate's yard in October.

They certainly have a well handicapped horse if they have got him back on song after a winless 2020.

He was rated 96 after making all to win the Listed Glasgow Stakes in July 2019, and is down to 88 now, and all looks set for him to get a solo on the lead again here (unless the dangerous-looking French recruit Khagan goes forward, as he did on occasions, I can't see much pace in here at all).

He won that Hamilton Listed race on soft, but he had made all at Ripon on good to firm on his previous start, and he is well worth chancing at the odds of reward.

I was also very tempted to save with Satono Japan at 11/2, four places.

He has the pedigree of a 110+ horse - I got told off at the weekend for writing stuff like this, as by definition most horses should be better than their breeding - but, what the hell, I just think this horse is crying out for a more forward ride at a more galloping track than Chelmsford or the other all-weather tracks he has been plying his trade on so far.

And this big unit could well improve for a bit more vigorous rousting on turf, but I will satisfy myself with just the Sameem bet.

Two well-handicapped runners worth a punt

I won't waste your time discussing the five-runner Yorkshire Cup at 15:10 as I am not having a bet, but suffice to say that I wasn't impressed by Santiago's return at Navan and I think Nayef Road is probably the play at 3/1+ if there is one.

I can't see many front-runners in the 7f handicap at 15:40, and that leads me to two punts in the race.

The obvious starting point is the favourite Boardman, who is 4lb well-in after his recent win on heavy at Haydock (he goes on this better ground, too), but my first angle into the contest is Muntadab, who can hopefully see off possible pace rivals Highfield Princess and Cassy O from his draw in seven.

I stuck him up at a big price when he was punted into 7/1 at Musselburgh two starts ago but, annoyingly, he couldn't get to the front there. He did at Catterick last time though, and still couldn't get the job done, finishing second.

That could suggest he is weighted up to his current best off 78 as an ageing 9yo but I am not having that - he was rated 107 just two years ago - and the return to York will hopefully see him exploit what I consider to still be a very generous mark.

He has run three blinders in four starts around here (two of which came off marks of 100 and 97) and I am not writing off the old boy just yet.

Back him at 16/1 each-way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

York head on 1280.jpg

I nearly ditched Tom Collins, given he is drawn a nasty-looking 20 of 20, but I was not at all impressed by the ride he was given in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time (albeit from another testing outside draw) and I am giving him another chance.

I wanted to see him ridden more aggressively at Thirsk but the expected vigour never materialized at any stage, and I am going to trust in Kevin Stott doing the steering honours here from the widest of berths.

This horse is certainly well handicapped on his Pontefract soft ground-win for David Elsworth last season and perhaps the slightly easier ground here will suit him a touch better than Thirsk, where it was good to firm - his trainer was worried about the ground beforehand - though he did run perfectly well on fast ground at Doncaster last summer.

And, as I am writing off that reappearance run, I am hereby declaring this is effectively his debut for the wily William Haggas, who loves a winner or 90 (and counting) at York, given he was born just down the road in Skipton.

It has to be win-only, given that draw - who knows, it could turn out a blessing in disguise - but I am tickling at 12.011/1 or bigger. He is also 11/1 with the Sportsbook if you want to bet there.

I don't see the drop to 7f with cut in the ground presenting a problem, and the ever-impressive stable just continues to fire in the winners.

Nearly went to the Bar but it's a reluctant pass

I nearly went with Barbill at 5/1 with the Sportsbook in the 14:25 at Newbury, as he ran well on his return, is on a decent mark, should get a nice tow into the race from three possible front runners and has excellent course form, having never run a bad race in four starts there (three of which have come in Group or Listed company).

Hang on, what I am saying, given that summary?

He most certainly was a bet at 5s but, as feared, he was clipped into 4/1 before I published so I will let him pass for now. If he hits 5s or bigger again, I will back him.

Good luck.

2021 FLAT SEASON (STARTED APRIL 14):

Staked: 42pts
Returns: 74.11pts
P/L +32.11pts

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